This is really a clarificatory post. The bomb which exploded outside the Italian cultural institute in Barcelona this morning does *not* appear to have any relation with international terrorism. Radio reports suggest it is the work of a group of ‘anti-system’ anarchists protesting about arrests of some of their co-thinkers in Italy. Fortunately I don’t think even the police dog was badly hurt.
Tag Archives: Terrorism
More Theories Update
Now this information needs to be treated with extreme caution, since the source in my experience is not of the best, but the Spanish newspaper El Mundo is claiming that the Spanish national intelligence centre (CNI) identified a website posting on 29th May from the Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades which may be seen with the benefit of hindsight as giving clearance for the London attack. If confirmed, this report complicates things slightly since it is not the same group as the “The Secret Organization of al-Qaida in Europe”. The website posting contained the key phrase “We now call on the mujahedeen around the world to launch the expected attack”.
An English version of this story can be found here. I think we should await more confirmation before drawing too many conclusions. Just in case: you can find some background on Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades here.
More Theories
Very hard to interpret the information we are receiving right now. Much of it may well be aimed at the terrorists themselves so it is also perhaps better not to dig too deeply.
There are, however, a number of rival (but possibly) compatible theories. One of these, and it is the one I am following most closely (possibly for obvious reasons) is that of the Spanish connection. Now following this along the road a little (and just in a kind of ‘what if’ sense) it may not be entirely without relevance that raids were carried out in Italy on Saturday. (The FT today also also has a piece on the Italian raids. What stands out is the ‘cover’ provided by mass illegal immigration for such groups. I am in favour of increasing economic migration to meet demographic needs, but this process needs to be regulated and orderly, here we can see one more reason why). It is just me speculating, but the rapidity of the raids in Italy may relate more to the fact that there are ties between the Spain-based Jihadists and the Italian-based ones than to the immediate threat of an attack in Italy. This article contains the following information sourced from the Italian newspaper Corriere della Serra:
“In 2003, the Italian Police and the carabinieri from the Special Operations Unit uncovered a link between the alleged Italian cell and its extremist associates in a number of European countries, primarily Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands. The Milan probe revealed that “young North Africans were ?trawled for’ in the European mosques, given money, and supplied with a visa?” to travel to Iraq to conduct suicide operations.”
This connection is loose, but is one possible route. Those who feel there might be an Iraq connection (and the lack of any explicit information about the explosives might point to this: this origin would be politically sensitive) would do well to note that the Italian net appears to have close links with Ansar Al-Islam which is based in the Kurdish zone, and was once host to none other than Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi. As I say, I wouldn’t even call this a conjecture, just some isolated pieces of information which are worth keeping track on, irrespective of whether or not the people mentioned were implicated last Thursday.
Finally, the NYT highlights the way in which the kind of terror we are seeing is in fact bringing Europe closer together:
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Quiet Revolutions
This Financial Times article about the enormous quantity of photos received by news media associated with the London bombing. The BBC alone received “more than 1,000 still pictures of the unfolding events and 300 different bits of amateur video”. Helen Broaden – BBC director of news – is quoted as saying that “the gap between the professional and non-professional news gatherers is getting narrower”.
Another piece of evidence for this would be the growing interest in Blog postings, the London Times has a roundup. (Link from Tim Worstall).
Suspects
Speculation has begun about who exactly is behind the July 7th bombings. The Sunday Times names Mustafa Setmariam Nasar. The grounds for this is information allegedly received from Spanish authorities.
Nasar, who is Syrian,is thought to have been behind the March 11 bombings in Spain and is considered by Spanish intelligence to have established a ‘sleeper cell’ in the UK. Spanish police did arrive in London on Friday to assist in the enquiries, but there can be a variety of reasons for this.
The Sunday Telegraph also run the story:
“Ministers now believe that the bombings – which left at least 49 people dead in Britain’s worst terrorist attack – were the work of a “very, very small number” of individuals who arrived from mainland Europe or North Africa on false passports within the past six months.”
The Mail on Sunday and the News of the World run what may seem to be the rival theory of native born British involvement as detailed by a former Metropolitan Police Chief John Stevens. In fact the two ‘theories’ may simply form different parts of one single picture: Mustafa Nasar may be the brain, and the UK born participants (if they in fact are such) may well be those who placed the bombs. At this stage no combination is obviously ruled out.
Attentive readers of the link in this post yesterday will have noted that Mustafa Setmariam Nasar also goes under the name of Abu Musa?ab al-Suri, and under this name he apparently recently revealed that he is working on a manifesto for designing the future of jihad. According to the Jamestown Foundation in his vision of the future he calls for “a new holy war that employs nuclear, chemical and ?bacteriological? (biological) weapons, and dirty bombs”.
Nothing to see here but (more) death and destruction
I?m grateful for the thought (and the information and the links) that have gone into recent posts by my co-blogger Edward. I find myself disagreeing with him about only one thing: That the London bombing will (or should) lead to a major change in the way we see things, or to the West?s anti-terror strategy in particular.
I certainly don?t support aspect of Western leaders? anti-terror strategy, although I?ve been a proponent of a global war on terror since 2001. (I think the war in Iraq has turned out pretty disastrously, for instance.) So yes, I think something should change. I?m just not sure what the London bombings have to do with it.
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Facts
I am emphasising and emphasising, and emphasising over again: following what has been happening in Spain is important to understand *one* of the evolution pathways of radical Islam in Europe. Unfortunately most of the relevant material is in Spanish. Googling I found this. I cannot vouch for the source, but the information contained in the article conforms with my general understanding. One or two extra points:
I had missed the fact Castells appeared before the 11M commission. I think it important that network theorists are involved in strategic thinking. I think the idea that there are simply a fixed quantity of terrorists to be eliminated is absurd, and those who argue this kind of view probably commit themselves to something like the ‘lump of labour‘ fallacy.
Secondly illegal immigration is a really important issue. This phenomenon probably explains this sentence in the link: “The apparent ease with which foreign jihadists motivated Spanish Muslims to radicalize their religious beliefs and recruit them for suicide operations in Iraq illustrates a demographic and ideological shift among Spanish Muslims”.
Following this up, illegal immigration is the perfect cover for such activities as those who are in this situation have almost minimal contact with the value system of the ‘host’ society, and may experience many of its less desireable features. The Italian authorities seem to be taking this possibility seriously.
Theories
The bus bomb puzzle.
Let Me Take You By The Hand….
“You think you will defeat us?”
then -
“Let me take you by the hand
and lead you through the streets of London
I’ll show you something
to make you change your mind”
These lyrics from well-known folk singer Ralph McTell are on a handwritten note which is to be found among the many offerings commemorating the dead at London’s Kings Cross station.
These days we have seen a lot of bravado going the rounds. I’m no hero, I’ll settle for this. I think I’ll save the whooping and the whirling for when we have won.
Clues
This is not an analytical “perspectives” type post. Just a number of bitty threads that seem in one way or another worth noting (small pieces loosely joined). They could basically be grouped together under the following headings: photos, suicides, explosives and origins.
Maybe I should also point out the obvious: that living in Spain while coming from the UK gives me a rather unusual perspective on what is happening. I lived the days surrounding the Madrid bombings intensely, now I am doing the same with London (where I had my home for many years). In some ways I can’t help but see this in terms of similarities and differences.
The big difference is of course in the government reaction, and the way that this is transmitted to a wider public. The British official reaction is one of ‘containment’ in every sense of the word. I think this is a good approach, since I think that excessive shock and panic only serves the purposes of the terrorists. The overall sensation was that London was as prepared for this as it could have been, and that many of those working in the crisis management and emergency services areas were following through on already well rehearsed roles.
Things in Spain couldn’t have been more different.
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