Tag Archives: inflation

Sweden Acts On Interest Rates

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Well Sweden has just put the cat among the pigeons. Taking advantage of its ability to apply an independent monetary policy, the Riksbank has decided to cut its base lending rate from 2.0% to 1.5%. The reason why is not hard to discern, apart from the reduced growth forecast for this year, the inflation rate is falling dangerously low, at just 0.2% year on year in May, dropping from a 0.4% y-oy in April and 0.5% y-o-y in March. Obviously Sweden is on deflation alert, and in fact a greater reduction (say 1%) might have been justified.

This is bound to spark all sorts of additional debate about the euro, and its advisability. Finland would be the best point of comparison here. The Finnish inflation rate was 0.6% y-o-y in May, but it has been hovering precariously near the zero level for the last month, anything which gave a sudden push to the disinflation process, like a sudden bust in commodity prices, would certainly clearly knock Finland over the line.
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Germany: Exports and Inflation Revised Down

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According to NTCResearch:

Inflation in Germany rose less than previously thought in May, the Federal Statistics Office reported on Thursday. Germany’s harmonised index of consumer prices rose 0.2 percent month-on-month and 1.4 percent year on year, compared with initially reported rates of 0.3 percent and 1.5 percent, the Office said. Meanwhile, it was revealed today that Germany?s trade surplus narrowed in April as imports surged. After accounting for expected seasonal factors, the surplus declined from 14.7 billion euros to 12.6 billion. The smaller surplus reflected a 0.4 percent fall in exports and a 3.8 percent jump in imports, the data showed.

The downward drift in inflation needs careful monitoring. I’ve got a deflation alert call out on Germany remember. If Germany goes through the inflation wall, then the proverbial s*** really will hit the fan, since I can’t see the ECB doing non-conventional monetary policy. Come to think of it, maybe that’s what the meeting with Fels was all about.

He Would Say That Wouldn’t He II

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In some ways I think this story may run and run over the months to come. Bloomberg have an update on their earlier article. According to the latest account:

1/. The German Finance Ministry have declined to comment on the Stern report that discussions took place last week between Finance Minister Hans Eichel, Bundesbank President Axel Weber and various economists on a possible failure of European Monetary Union.
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That Dreaded D Word

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“Dial D for Deflation” declared the Economist in 2002 in an article which amazingly is still available online. Since Alan Greenspan officially declared the deflation scare over, the word has hardly cropped up in economic debates.

Yet anyone looking at the rapid rise in value of the euro, and the absence of growth in some key economies – Germany, Italy – could have been forgiven for thinking that the ‘all clear’ signal was being given a bit too soon.

Today the latest EU inflation figures are out from Eurostat (PDF file), and Goldman Sachs are warning that: ?without preventive action from the ECB, unit labour costs threaten to pose a future risk of deflation?.
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Dutch Referendum: Euro-scepticism

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Dutch Finance Minister Gerrit Zalm is in the news again. Last time I read about him it was because he had started a weblog. This time the issue is different: he describes himself as being “totally fed up” with the fact the Dutch public thinks that it was effectively robbed by the way the euro was introduced.

Behind this ‘frustration’ lies a startk reality: the controversy over the valuation of the the guilder at the time of monetary union is one of the key factors fuelling the ‘no’camp in the forthcoming referendum.
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ECB: Plus ?a Change?

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The ECB met earlier today to conduct the monthly review of interest rate policy. It came as a surprise to noone that the outcome was to leave everything just as it is. Surprisingly though the decision this month is surrounded by a little more controversy than has been the case of late since Italy’s Berlusconi and economic opinion in Germany have been suggesting that some reduction of rates might be no bad thing, whilst Spain’s economy minister (and former EU commisioner) Pedro Solbes is reported to have been pushing for an increase. Why the difference?
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What’s It All About Alfie?

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Well I suppose it’s better to end the week on a bang rather than a whimper, so here I go with another of those posts. What really ended the week on a high note (or should I say a low one) was the US labour market. And since I am arguing that the euro-dollar parity is being driven at the moment by US labour market data, this news can only mean one thing: more upward pressure on the euro. Which makes me only want to re-iterate, and even more strongly, that an important opportunity was wasted yesterday to take some remedial action by lowering the interest rate. Remedial action which would also have supplied a much needed lifeline to Germany’s beleagured economy. But this, like so many things, was not to be.
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