April 16, 2007

Economics and demography

Economic nonsense about France

by Emmanuel

Yet again. Here’s what the BBC has to say in its updated-for-the-upcoming-elections online background article about France:
But France’s economy has grown more slowly than any other developed country in the world. In 2006, its 2% growth was the worst in Europe.
Well, sorry to beat a late parrot, but one year does not a trend make: [...]

February 23, 2007

Economics and demography

Italy’s Economic Problems Under The Spotlight

by Edward Hugh

As Manuel points out in the accompanying post, Romano Prodi’s resignation as Italy’s Prime Minister is a rather sudden and dramatic, but scarcely unexpected, development. The immediate political crisis may be resolved as rapidly as it appeared, but again as Manuel indicates it may only serve as a prelude for further things to come, and [...]

February 4, 2007

Economics and demography

The Economics of the German VAT Hike

by Claus Vistesen

I am very happy to be back here at AFOE, if not only, for a brief one-stop guest post about the economics of the German VAT hike and more specifically how market commentators and analists might just be reading the German economy somewhat falsely at the moment in the sense that they are not taking [...]

January 30, 2007

Economics and demography

Eurozone Economy: When Paradigms Collide

by Edward Hugh

When scientific paradigms collide everyone should duck, at least that is the best advice I can offer at the present moment. The provisional German retail sales for January are now in, and they don’t make especially pleasant reading:
“European retail sales dropped for the first time in 10 months in January as spending in Germany [...]

January 22, 2007

Economics and demography

Serbia: That Incredible Shrinking Country

by Edward Hugh

This weekend’s election results in Serbia, and in particular the gridlock state of the political process and the resilience of the vote for the nationalist Serbian Radical Party (as ably explained by Doug in the previous post), pose new, and arguably reasonably urgent questions for all those who are concerned about the future of those [...]

September 24, 2006

Economics and demography

Hungary: Well That Didn’t Take Long!

by Edward Hugh

It was only just over two weeks ago (two weeks, which following the logic of a historical time which seems far from uniform, now seem like half a lifetime) that guest poster P. O’Neill, said this:
For understandable reasons — the addition of 10, and soon to be 12, new member countries, and the constitutional crisis, [...]

September 22, 2006

Economics and demography

Italy’s Supply Constraint

by Edward Hugh

The OECD estimates the current potential capacity growth rate of the Italian economy at 1.25% a year. Actually I suspect even this very low number is over-optimistic. Growth since 2002 has been as follows: 2003 - 0.1%: 2004 - 0.9%: 2005 - 0.1%. To be sure forecast growth for this year is somewhat higher, [...]

September 21, 2006

Economics and demography

Greg Mankiw Wakes Up: Demography Does Matter

by Edward Hugh

I recently berated Greg Mankiw (and the top ten world economists he pretends top cite) for the folly of suggesting that fertility rates don’t matter to economists. Well today Mankiw seems to be having (an implicit) rethink. Dependency ratios, it seems, do matter.
Now since dependency ratios are really a function of three factors - fertility, [...]

September 13, 2006

Economics and demography

Italy and the Eurozone

by Edward Hugh

John Kay had an article in the Financial Times earlier in the week, and this seems to have caused quite a ripple around the blogsphere (Eurozone Watch, Economonitor, Claus Vistesen at Alpha Sources). The article was about whether or not it was technically possible for Italy to leave the Eurozone. (Update: Sebastian has a [...]

September 7, 2006

Economics and demography

State of the World Population

by Edward Hugh

I’ll keep this brief since there are some excellent guest posts just a little bit further on down the page just waiting for you to read and comment on. I’m not sure whether this is more about form or content, but the UN has a supremely interesting and readable report out today, as part of [...]

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