2pm: waiting for the news

OK, time for another new post as we wait for news from Kiev. The Central Electoral Commission is meant to be having a press conference now to declare the result but there’s still no news. As I mentioned in the thread below, the current rumours on the streets are that the official announcement (followed by Yanukovich officially becoming President) will be followed by a crackdown on the protests in Kiev. Maidan has more – but it’s understandably rather slow today.

While it may be a bit premature to be looking past the current crisis, Mosnews has an article about the future of Ukraine, noting that regardless of the result, this has made people across Europe and the world aware of Ukraine and its position.

There’s a new International Support for Ukrainian Democracy website.
The Kyiv Post now reports troops heading towards Kiev.
Victor Katolyk’s latest post says that the Communist Party are now saying they believe the elections to be illegitimate. This may mean (if the Communists and allies come to 35 or more deputies on top of the 191 Yuschenko had yesterday) that a quorum can be found for another Parliamentary meeting.
It’s now just before 5pm Ukraine time, and there’s still no word of any press conference at the Election Commission. However, rumours of a potentially violent outcome to this are still spreading, with reports of busloads of Russian troops being transported around the country, though Maidan reports that Ukrainian security forces will intervene on the side of the protestors if they’re attacked by Russian forces.

Update: Just posted on The Periscope thread (at 09.07am PST – 15.07GMT), a report that Yuschenko has agreed to another election. There’s a story confirming this on Bloomberg along with a report that Polish President Kwasniewski is flying in to Kiev to act as the EU’s intermediary in any talks. Mosnews also reports that Yuschenko has agreed, subject to having “an honest Central Election Commission.”
Meanwhile, the Russian Duma backs Yanukovich while Grigory Yavlinksy has called for countries to recognise Yuschenko as the winner.
The results haven’t been declared yet, but Interfax reports the final figures from the Central Elections Commission will be 49.53% to Yanukovich, 46.66% to Yuschenko. They have two regional results as well:

In Kyiv, Yushchenko garnered 74.69% of the votes and Yanukovych 19.93%, and in the Donetsk region, Yanukovych won 96.2% of the vote and Yushchenko 2.03%, the source said.

More reports, including pictures of Yanukovich supporters, at Lobowalk.
BBC Radio just reported that the Netherlands – as holders of the EU Presidency – are sending an envoy to Ukraine.

Ukranian update

It was another quiet night in Ukraine with, thankfully, all the rumours of a crackdown by security forces not coming true. Neeka has a couple of posts on what happened overnight. She also points out, that amidst everything else going on, Dynamo Kiev played at home in the Champions League last night, and won 2-0. Victor Katolyk has continued to report through what’s been a quiet night.
BBC News reports that President Kuchma has offered talks to the opposition who will respond at around 10am Ukrainian time. The Kyiv Post, however, reports that Yulia Tymoshenko – who the BBC reports as saying Yuschenko will respond by 0am – has turned down the offer. I guess we have to wait and see on this one. The picture on their front page gives an idea of the size of the crowd.
Elsewhere, the Denver Post has reports from former US Congressman Bob Schaffer who “went to Ukraine to monitor an election but found himself watching a revolution.”
Brama and Maidan have continued to update overnight.
Following up on something Victor has mentioned, the Guardian reports that four newsreaders have walked out of Channel 1+1 in protest about censorship which is why that station hasn’t been showing any news – there’s no one there to report it! They also report (via the IFJ) that journalists at Inter and UT1 have walked out.
The BBC has a link to the Yanukovych campaign website but it appears to be down at the present time.
Tulip Girl lists the turnout at protests throught Ukraine.

Update: Europhobia starts a new post to cover today’s developments. Victor is now joined by friends to cover the latest events over at The Periscope. The official election result is expected to be announced at around 1400GMT (4pm Ukrainian time) – that looks like the key time to wait for today. There seem to be protests spiringing up all over the country right now.
There’s a new blog for the Voldmyr Campaign, it’s London-based and compiling information about what’s going on in Ukraine right now.
Javier Solana addressed the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee this morning and has warned of the possibility of violence. Following on from NATO last night, the Parliament has cummoned the Ukrainian Ambassador “to defend the conduct of the disputed presidential election in his homeland.”
The PORA campaign has an English-language website.

Update 2: The morning has continued with no major developments, though the crowds remaining in Kiev are still huge. The main currency appears to be rumours as people wait for the official announcement of the result at 4pm Ukraine time (2pm GMT, 3PM CET, 9am EST)
It’s not in English, but there appears to be a lot of information flowing through this Livejournal community. (By the way, Fistful is available as an LJ feed here)
BBC News reports that the European Commission has requested that the declaration of the result be declared delayed – (typo, not the Commission changing its mind). From what I understand, should Yanukovich be declared the winner then, he becomes President straightaway. Reports at The Periscope indicate that that’s when the crackdown by security forces will begin.
Another Kiev-based blog – Foreign Notes.
Reuters report the statement from the European Commission, including what sounds like quite a strong statement from Barroso:

“We have asked for the procedures and the results to be reviewed … and we are urging our Ukrainian partners to resist announcing final results before that review has taken place.” Emma Udwin, a spokeswoman for the EU’s executive Commission, told a daily news briefing.

New Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso called for restraint in Ukraine and said there would be consequences for EU relations with Kiev “if there is not a serious, objective review of the election results”.

Le Sabot Post-Moderne is working for Maidan, and has a report on the latest developments. Maidan itself reports that government buildings in Kiev are being evacuated.

Update (by Tobias): Crisis Fallout: Le Figaro reports mounting EU-Russian tensions just one day before a scheduled summit in The Hague. While Ukraine was not originally on the summit’s agenda, the ongoing events are likely to change that.

According to the newspaper, the Russian government now accuses the EU that by asking for a recount (which it did not do as such as such, the Dutch presidency simply expressed “doubts” aobut the election) it was “encouraging the Ukrainian opposition to take violent and illegal steps”. EUPolitix.com cites President Putin, who allegedly said ?Ukraine is a great state with a mature democratic system. There is no need to teach it democracy” (much more reading in their )

We Have A New European Commission

Despite not being entirely satisfied with the revised team, it was expected that the European Parliament would endorse Jose Manuel Barroso’s second Commission proposal with a large majority in order not to further weaken the Commission, the Parliament’s “natural” institutional ally.

And that’s what happened today. With Rocco Buttiglione and Igrida Udina out, Franco Frattini and Andris Piebalgs in, and a little portfolio tweaking, the new Commission was approved by 449 to 149, while 82 MEPs abstained from casting their vote.

The BBC has the new European Commission at-a-glance.

Update: No Honeymoon For Neelie Kroes.

When taking office next Monday, Neelie Kroes, the controversial new Dutch competition Commissioner, will be stripped of responsibility for at least three of the competition DGs investigations because of possible conflicts of interest, according to a report by Deutsche Welle, based upon statements by a Commission spokesperson. Ms Kroes, whose extensive business ties remained a considerable concern to MEPs even though they supported the team as a whole, has agreed with the Commission President to transfer cases with a perceived possible conflict of interest to another Commissioner.

Hitchcock in Rome.

“It is better to take time to get it right.”

When Jos? Manuel Barroso asked the European Parliament with these words not to vote on his current commission line-up, European Parlamentarians welcomed his decision, downplaying that he was rather late for the party, emphasizing that he showed up at all. But of course, the EP is having a party Mr Barroso had no intent to attend at all. His decision is a concession of defeat.
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Round One to Parliament

As various places are reporting, Barroso is now saying he needs more time to secure the European Parliament’s assent to his Commission. Faced with the prospect of a majority of MEPs voting to reject the entire Commission, he’s taken this unprecedented step, handing a significant victory to Parliament.

According to the German newspaper whose web site really could be better organized, negative votes were likely to come from the Socialist, United Left, Liberal and Green groupings, as well as a large number of independent deputies. The head of the Socialist group, Martin Schulz (Ger-SPD), is quoted estimating 362 no votes to 345 yes votes.
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Buttiglione on his way out?

While most observers still expect a compromise between incoming Commission president Barroso and those groups in the EP which threatened to block his entire team over the Buttiglione row – Mr Barroso will meet with leading MEPs tomorrow -, according to EUPolitix.com’s press review, the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita reports that Rocco Buttiglione may “resign” today and be “replaced by Italy?s highly regarded foreign minister Franco Frattini.”

Update from EUPolitix:

Further pressure on Barroso to reshuffle his team came on Wednesday afternoon from parliament?s Greens who said Buttiglione was ?unacceptable? as a commissioner. One solution doing the rounds in parliament?s corridors late on Wednesday is for a three way swap of portfolios between the Italian, Dutch and French commissioners-designates. Buttiglione would take over the transport portfolio, Neelie Kroes would move to justice and Jacques Barrot would take on the competition dossier.

Update: After meeting with leading MEPs incoming commission president Barroso decided to take a chance with an unchanged commission line-up, including Mr Buttiglione. Without an apology, the latter once again regretted his comments that will now lead to a stand-off with the European Parliament on October 27. Even though Mr Barroso’s commission has backing from the center-right European People’s Party, Josep Borrell, the Parliament’s president said that with Socialist, Green and Liberal Parliamentary groups opposed it’s far from certain that Mr Barroso will win the vote. Given the institutional problems involved – as well as Mr Barroso’s offer to set up a cross-departmental working group on human rights – the latter Parliamentary parties haven’t ruled out voting for it yet – but remain highly critical. More here.
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Ever Closer Union.

Over on Crooked Timber, Henry Farrell comments on the istitutional implications of the Buttiglione affair. While we are shocked to learn that The Economist does not like the recent self-confident behavior of the European Parliament with respect to the Commission hearings, Kieran Healy – duly apologetic – makes a fair point in the comments thread – “sorry to lower the tone of the discussion, but if he doesn?t get the job he should move to the San Fernando Valley: ?Rocco Buttiglione? is a Porn-Star Name, par execellence.” The producers of “Oral Office” will probably read this with pleasure…
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Turkey recommended for EU accession talks

The European Commission has recommended that accession talks for Turkey should begin, but hasn’t laid out any dates for the process:

Commission officials are reporting on the progress Turkey has already made, along with Bulgaria and Romania.

The final decision on Turkey rests with the leaders of all 25 EU member states in December – with accession years off.

The Commission’s recommendation is a milestone in an increasingly impassioned debate.

The decision was reached by a “large consensus” among commissioners, one EU official said, but no vote was taken.

There was also no recommended date to start negotiations with Turkey.

More from The Scotsman/PA, EU Business, Reuters and EU Observer.

Update: The full text of Romano Prodi’s speech can be found here and I’ve copied it below, so you can click on the ‘continue reading’ link to see it as the English HTML link on the site doesn’t seem to be working (pdf and doc links are).
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It’s Deficit Time Again

There’s a fair amount of talk again this week about the various government deficits and what to do with them. Earlier in the week the FT had a piece about the current state of play with the US deficit whilst the Economist is busy musing one more time over the ongoing saga of the EU growth and stability pact.

These two situations appear, on the surface, to be somewhat similar, but in reality it may be more interesting to consider how they differ.
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