The consumer confidence index calculated by the the Nuremburg based GfK market research group fell this month to 3.5 from a revised 4.3 in May. This suggests that while Germans may vote in large numbers for a change of government, they are extremely guarded about the possibility that this will produce any [...]

The Cunning Realist takes a look at limits:
Since the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000, there have been four distinct periods in which the Fed has flooded the system with an extraordinary amount of liquidity in an effort to boost the stock market:
1. Immediately after 9/11.
2. During the second half of 2002 in response [...]

The Economists ‘Buttonwood” gets right to the point. Talking of the problems of funding acquired pension liabilities, he notes:
“There are a couple of weird circularities here. Most of the burden of filling these gaps will fall on the companies themselves, which will depress their profits. That, in turn, will depress share prices, which will make [...]

The Greeks had a word for it ‘:aporia‘. That state of ignorance and confusion you are condemned to pass through before you can entertain even the vaguest hope of achieving clarity and real knowledge. Well, taking a long hard look at what we know, what we think we know, and what we know [...]

Following up on Edward’s entry, I just want to point out that the Washington Post recently reported on a part of the US whose demographics now approximate the national structure in 2025. The newspaper followed a study by professors at Wake Forest University’s business school (Sherry Jarrell and Gary Shoesmith, though the study doesn’t seem [...]

One person who could rightly claim to know more about global ageing and its possible consequences than anyone else in the business is the German Director of the Manheim Research Institute for the Economics of Ageing Axel B?rsch-Supan. If there’s a conference being organised, he seems to be there. Actually his comments at both [...]

John Snow is in Europe, globetrotting on the G8 round. He had some advice for us here in Europe: “I think the important thing is that Europe continue to focus on the things that need to be done to encourage domestic growth”.
I’m glad he raised the point, since otherwise it might have escaped us. These [...]

I’m not very happy with the ‘US Trade Figures‘ post I put up last Friday. I think it’s a glorious mess. The key to the problem is that I tried to deal with two - interrelated but disinct - topics at once: the euro and China trade. So today lets ignore the [...]

So are the China trade surplus ones. Dave at MacroBlog has the details on China. I’m waiting for Brad Setser to post, but he must be either doing his sums, or having a late breakfast :). Before we get some blog analysis (even Brad Delong is quiet today) you can get the basics here. In [...]

You know I’m sure most of you think my constant references to Argentina in the context of Italy’s economic problems is troubling, possibly even irritating. You may well be right. I have to say that I followed Argentina steadily from 1998, waiting to see the inevitable happen. The principal problem was, lets be clear, the [...]