November 21, 2004

Currencies

Pick Your Numbers

by Tobias Schwarz

It seems that there is a renewed interest in detailed comparisons of the economic realities in Europe and the US. First Die Zeit (German), then The Economist, and now Crooked Timber’s John Quiggin has a very nice piece illustrating the statistical problems inherent in all international economic comparisons - there’s not one just reality, and [...]

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November 18, 2004

Currencies

Onwards And Upwards We Go

by Edward Hugh

It’s no secret that the euro is now hitting record highs in its exchange rate with the dollar. It is also pretty apparent that some EU leaders are becoming rather preoccupied about the consequences of this for those eurozone economies which are driven by exports. What is much less clear though is what can be [...]

October 13, 2004

Currencies

Euro-zone: A Default-free Area?

by Edward Hugh

This is the interesting question that Morgan Stanley’s Vicenzo Guzzo asked a couple of weeks back. The key background details in question are what are known as the cross-country risk spreads. Now this may seem like a piece of technical obfuscation, so what exactly does he mean?
Well, one of the main consequences of the introduction [...]

October 11, 2004

Currencies

Hardly Breaking News

by Edward Hugh

That the US jobs report last Friday showed continuing weakness in the labour market is certainly by now far from breaking news. I wouldn’t however want to let it pass by without comment. I think it is now abundantly clear that there is a pattern in all this somewhere (what that pattern is precisely, and [...]

September 29, 2004

Currencies

‘Volatilty’ is Back

by Edward Hugh

After a series of posts on the rise of the euro earlier in the year, I’ve been relatively quiet on this front of late. This doesn’t mean that the problem has gone away. The growing feeling that the US economy was taking off certainly eased the pressure, and the euro has hovered around the low [...]

September 10, 2004

Currencies

It’s Deficit Time Again

by Edward Hugh

There’s a fair amount of talk again this week about the various government deficits and what to do with them. Earlier in the week the FT had a piece about the current state of play with the US deficit whilst the Economist is busy musing one more time over the ongoing saga of the [...]

March 10, 2004

Currencies

Rodrigo Rato: Wagging The Finger, Or Wagging The Dog?

by Edward Hugh

I have already posted on my own blog about what I see as the surreal consequences which might follow from this wish becoming a reality. If what I think happens next to the Spanish economy really does happen - and I have no doubt whatsoever that the housing bubble will crash one or other of [...]

March 5, 2004

Currencies

What’s It All About Alfie?

by Edward Hugh

Well I suppose it’s better to end the week on a bang rather than a whimper, so here I go with another of those posts. What really ended the week on a high note (or should I say a low one) was the US labour market. And since I am arguing that the euro-dollar parity [...]

March 4, 2004

Currencies

ECB: German Plea Falls On Deaf Ears

by Edward Hugh

When this is all over, and we come to look back at the when and the where, maybe we will remember today’s decision as just one more of those missed opportunities. Certainly not much notice seems to have been taken of Gerard Schroeders request for a helping hand on the interest rate front. Is there [...]

March 1, 2004

Currencies

Europe’s ‘Sad Day’?

by Edward Hugh

“A sad day for trade relations between the US and Europe”. This is how John Disharoon, vice president of the trade committee at the American chamber of commerce to the EU described the decision by the European Union to begin imposing trade sanctions on US goods as of today. Of course, the arguments about [...]

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