Avoid overlap in your answers

I think we’re seeing emergent modes of behaviour with respect to the current UK coalition government. There’s some decent champion-of-the-people stuff happening in the margins. Vince Cable thinks the retail banks are ripping off consumers: he’s probably right to think it. Rory Stewart wants better broadband in Cumbria: he’s probably right to want it.

In the centre of things, though, there’s now a queue of ministers making articulated policy statements. If this were going well, we’d be looking at some systematic law-making; something a Tory supporter could, with a straight face, call reform. What we’re actually getting is a stream of crap. There’s no coordination to any of it. Call it government by assignment. This is a model of government where ministers go away at the beginning of long leave the holidays with a homework topic; on the first day of term, they return each having prepared a presentation, which they then deliver. Conferring is strongly discouraged; ministers should show their own work. Conferring, though, might at least have uncovered some of the obvious problems.

For example, IDS has been doing welfare and benefits, but his department has just given him a D; his proposals are considered both too expensive and too socially destructive by those who’d be put in charge of implementing them. Andrew Lansley’s been doing health: we’ve more to hear on this, but the doctors themselves, as represented by the BMJ, don’t much like what they see. Interestingly, nothing much of Lansley’s presentation was foreshadowed in the Tory election manifesto; it’s good to be the one person to advance a new idea, except of course for those occasions when what’s wanted is a mandate for that idea. At those times, originality bad.

And David Cameron is about to give a presentation on what he calls the Big Society. This is Cameron’s dissertation topic, and we’ve heard about it before. Officially, the main idea is redistribution of power.

The big society … is about liberation – the biggest, most dramatic redistribution of power from elites in Whitehall to the man and woman on the street.

Snark aside, there are basically two kinds of power when it comes to public services. The first kind of power is control over a budget. The second kind of power is direct authority over people in the community served (i.e. the sort of power the police, social workers, or local authority officers have).

Does the Big Society grant either kind of power to anyone who doesn’t already have it? To a first approximation: no. It might well remove some local authority power, though. In that light, the Big Society is simply wrongly named: what’s envisaged is the Smaller Society. Charities existed before the welfare reforms of the twentieth century; did they constitute a Big Society then? And charities still exist today, with tax concessions attached. Charities are doing fine, but if charities don’t already make a Big Society, they’re not about to get made into one. Access to a couple of hundred million from forgotten-about bank accounts (reminder to self: call the building society tomorrow) won’t render charities significantly more empowered. On the contrary: UK charities are themselves susceptible to fiscal austerity; they get around a third of their funding from the government. What’s being pushed at us is a deliberate enlargement of the charity domain. Normally, when we think of charities as having plenty to do, we think of earthquakes and other disasters as visited on poor and unequal societies. To be honest, we’d probably all prefer it if charities had less to do. And better societies – to my mind at least – call less for charity.

Of course, we’re likely to be shown a handful of exemplar schemes. Here the precedent of city academies almost obliges us to watch and see whether or not budgets have been discreetly and conveniently allocated. We’d be mugs not to.

Cameron is spinning and presenting this shtick like he’s got until he end of the week to get it into law. And it’s not just him. As Jamie says, all of this stuff is getting rushed. Collectively, the coalition comes across as deeply and dismally unserious. On the upside – and it’s the IDS situation that suggests this to me – there still exist those with the chops to have gotten to be senior in the civil service. The penalty for causing civil service dismay, most likely, is that your ideas are soon shown to be unimplementable. So I give the show and tell-ers two years of this.

Our organisation does not tolerate failure?

Re my earlier post, in case you were wondering if there were any actual cases of politicians making ambiguous calls for market reassurance, well, here’s a nice example from the G20 Toronto Summit Declaration:

There is a risk that synchronized fiscal adjustment across several major economies could adversely impact the recovery. There is also a risk that the failure to implement consolidation where necessary would undermine confidence and hamper growth. Reflecting this balance, advanced economies have committed to fiscal plans that will at least halve deficits by 2013 and stabilize or reduce government debt-to-GDP ratios by 2016.

Whose confidence? And (fiscal) consolidation is necessary where? Halving deficits by 2013 is no small aim. It’s also a highly political aim – affecting many people in many constituencies – and so it seems to me that explicit justification is needed; not hand waving and vague talk of ‘confidence’.

Incidentally, the G20 organisation seems to talk quite a bit about ‘taking steps’ and ‘delivering concrete outcomes’. What, if anything, gives them legitimacy to even attempt to ‘take steps’? Many national constitutions require governments to ratify international treaties as and when they’re negotiated. Shouldn’t the G20 ‘steps’ count as treaties? My question here is only partly facetious. Shouldn’t they?

Hey, why don’t we requisition the Royal Hospital Chelsea for productive workers?

Some telegraphery from Iain Duncan Smith here. In short, IDS thinks we need to physically move people of working age on benefits to where employers want them; to make space, we need to relocate pensioners in council houses to smaller homes.

It looks as though the guy has swallowed his own rhetoric about the state sector constituting some sort of ‘command economy’: we need to shrink it, all right – he seems to be saying – but as long as it exists there’s going to be some god damn commanding going on. Is it that he was in the army once? It used to be that ‘the command economy’ meant putting vital-to-the-nation industries into the regions (like building submarines in Barrow); now we look to be working up a policy of putting the regions into the industry; specifically, that of west London and Bristol, the two places IDS seems to have on his radar.

Whatever. I think he’s basically incoherent on this one. To put things in the simplest terms, either recipients of benefits have agency – which implies that while some will ‘get on their bikes and look for work’ (or relocate, or whatever), some won’t – or they don’t have agency, in which case you can’t expect them to exercise it. If it’s the former, then benefits should come with few strings attached, should not be excessively and repeatedly assessed, conditions of receipt should not be changed at short notice, etc. In essence, benefits – within the obvious and accepted-by-everyone constraint of affordability – should be a matter of entitlement rather than grant. And it might be that one of the things IDS is missing here is a recognition that it’s not only the current recipients of benefits who take notice of what the benefit terms and conditions are, it’s just about everybody; that is, the whole of the private sector as well. We – the everybody – make our life plans accordingly. If we think that the safety net is going to be a certain way rather than another way, we plan for that. And if you – Iain Duncan Smith – relocate pensioners without warning, you’re in effect sticking two fingers up at whatever choices they’ve made in the past. How do you know they haven’t planned responsibly? Perhaps they chose to do a lower paid but socially useful job, trusting that there’d be a certain minimal support in retirement. Perhaps, if they’d thought they might risk getting booted out of their home in retirement, they might instead have chosen a less socially useful but better paid line of work. These are the sorts of counterfactuals relevant to this sort of policy-making. (You may want to question ‘socially useful’, but I’d bet that IDS himself recognises at least some occupations as socially useful. What’s more, the comparable ‘key worker’ category is one recognised in current housing policy.)

Bear in mind that IDS is no longer just some harmless former Tory leader: he’s Work And Pensions Secretary. It’s only been what – a month – but he looks to have had a full on Blunkett-style ‘machine gun the bastards’ moment.

Our boys on the x front

Uh oh. David Cameron’s moving into the phase of his leadership career where he says stuff out loud. For instance, he now has an official view on what our attitude to the military should be:

But supporting our Armed Forces isn’t just a government responsibility – it’s a social responsibility,” he said.

In the First World War those at home didn’t just sing ‘keep the home fires burning’, they practised it. In the Second World War, the military occupied a huge place in the national consciousness, partly because everyone knew someone in uniform.

I believe as a country at war we should see the same appreciation today, with the military front and centre of our national life once again.

Of course, we now have (a) an all-volunteer military and (b) a much smaller military, in terms of numbers in uniform. It’s odd that Cameron doesn’t seem to recognise these facts: they can’t but make for a large difference in the relationship between the military and the population in general. What’s harder to explain though, is why he felt the need to say something like this in the first place. I don’t detect any antipathy to the military itself, or towards its members: on the contrary, your typical Brit turns up at Navy Day, or any time there’s an RAF air show, and we are talking of attendances of up to 100,000. That looks like enthusiasm. So is it just that ‘public should support the military more’ is a current MOD talking point and he got briefed to say it? Or does it reflect Tory nervousness about the set of foreign policies inherited from New Labour?

Dutch Parliamentary Elections Updates

First impressions.

PVV (Geert Wilders‘ Party) is the big winner. JP Balkenende is now definitely out. His CDA took a fair beating. As did the Socialist Party. D66 (from 3 to 10) makes a nice comeback, GreenLeft could be a factor of some importance when it’s time to form a government coalition (possibly purple). Turn-out is estimated at 74%.

Rita Verdonk’s Party Trots op Nederland (Proud of Holland) did not make the cut. Populism doesn’t seem to work for everybody. Do check out the linked vid with English subs for some Dutch right-wing Zeitgeist.

Nice fait divers for expats like myself (hat tip Sargasso). Half a million Dutchies living abroad have the right to vote (representing about eight seats in Parliament). This year 46,396 of them registered to vote. One of their main worries? Finding a red pencil…

The face of the new Prime Minister? Or is this the one?

Thursday 03.00 am, Rutte on tv: “It’s the economy. And immigration too.” He congratulates Femke Halsema (GL) and Alexander Pechtold (D66) with their scores…

Wilders on tv (earlier this evening): “As the country’s third party we cannot be excluded, we want to govern.” Is willing to compromise in order to be able to govern.

03.26 am Mark Rutte (VVD) on tv calling it, tentatively, for the VVD. Lauds JP Balkenende. Keywords: Economic recovery, security, immigration. Believes he is the obvious candidate for Prime Minister.

Live commentary (in Dutch) and footage can be found here.

Here is a link with election updates. Just choose the number 443 and press “gaan” (go).

Situation as of Thursday 03.38 am with 96.5% of the votes counted:

VVD 31 (conservative-liberal, up from 22 in 2006)
PvdA 30 (labour/social-democrats)
PVV 24 (Geert Wilders’ Party, up from 9)
CDA 21 (Christian-democrats, down from 41 and now behind PVV!)
SP 15 (Socialist Party, down from 25)
D66 10 (social-liberal up from 3)
GL 10 (green left)
CU 5 (christian union)
SGP 2 (christian party striving for theocracy)
PvdD 2 (party for the animals)

Calling it a night. PVV, VVD and D66 win big, CDA en SP lose big. Mark Rutte will probably become the first liberal Dutch PM in modern history.

it’s all about…

The Guardian has a screenshot of Cleggy boy’s negotiating positions re the Tories: 

But it is the detail at the end of the note which is most revealing. Under the heading "Roles" Clegg lists the two main issues as "ratios" and "me".

and also:

Funding for opposition parties: so called "short money."

Trebles all round, then.

life on earth

What has happened since the election is supposedly a taste of what will happen if we ever get proportional representation. Count me as a convert. What we have here is information we don’t get when the winner just ends up outside Downing Street looking smug and standing on a big pile of votes. We get a plain view of how the senior political classes behave while under pressure; how they behave towards their frenemies in the other parties, how they react to the various gurglings and moanings from within their own ranks. We see the media throwing up all commitment to the pretence of objectivity in their reporting – we get to see the narrative being constructed rather than having to guess at that through how it being plays out. 

We get to judge the capabilities of politicians conducting their everyday tradecraft – and my, doesn’t Cameron look the weak willie? There’s still a remote possibility that he’ll have his coalition snatched from under him by the party sixty seats behind: a week ago his party was talking about storming into No 10 even if they didn’t get a majority. In fact, this may be working to his temporary advantage if it really has led people in the Labour Party to rediscover the virtues of principled opposition. More generally, we get to see all of them squirming about in the petri dish. We become a more educated electorate. Hell, Sky should have sent Adam Boulton home with some powerful tranquillisers days ago and hired David Attenborough to cover for him.

royal hunt of the Clegg

This is from the wiki about human sacrifice among the Aztecs: 

 What we can glean from all this is that the sacrificial role entailed a great deal of social expectation and a certain degree of acquiescence. Sahagun's informants told him that key roles were reserved for persons who were considered 'charming…quick..dances with feeling.. without [moral] defects … of good understanding … good mannered'(Sahagun Bk 2: 24: 68-69). 

For many rites, the victim had such a quantity of prescribed duties that it is difficult to imagine how the accompanying festival would have progressed without some degree of compliance on the part of the victim. For instance, victims were expected to bless children, greet and cheer passers-by, hear people's petitions to the gods, visit people in their homes, give discourses and lead sacred songs, processions and dances …  [and] these [pre-sacrificial] rites were performed in the case of all the prisoners, each in turn. 

It should also be remembered that these sacrifices were ritualistic and symbolic acts accompanying huge feasts and festivals. Victims usually died in the "center stage" amidst the splendor of dancing troupes, percussion orchestras, elaborate costumes and decorations, carpets of flowers, crowds of thousands of commoners, and all the assembled elite. 

This is basically what Cleggy and the Lib Dems were subjected to this weekend, an intensive process designed to socialise – hypnotise, almost – them into propping up a Tory government under circumstances that would lead to their annihilation, with Cameron playing the role of Mexica high priest and “the markets” playing the role of Huitzlipochtli and kindred other Gods whose anger needs to be appeased. See also the solar king myths of prehistoric Europe. 

As it happens, the LDs are showing some signs of resilience to this process. But we shall see.

UPDATE: Scratch all that. David Cameron is Edward Woodward.

reverse ferret scenario

So Cleggy boy meets Brown, while carefully not having a face to face with Cameron. Not bad. Obviously, he’s not so lost in the creamy embrace of the Cameron-media complex to exclude a bidding war. 

Here’s a scenario, based on 

i) final abandonment of the idea that anyone is “acting on principle” 

ii) not getting electoral reform is suicidal for the Lib Dems 

Absolutely desperate for some kind of deal to reverse Clegg’s apparently irresistible drift towards the Tories, Brown offers proportional representation without a referendum, to take place at the next election, whenever that is. 

Clegg takes the deal, and immediately precipitates an election. Labour duly get hammered. So do the LD’s. But they still come out ahead in seats because their votes are now proportionate. 

Clegg goes into coalition with the Tories. 

Woe, beating of breasts, laments for the progressive coalition, etc, etc. 

As I say, just a thought. It’s probably more likely that he’s stringing Brown along to get more out of the Tories.

Why Should the UK have All the Fun?

North Rhine-Wesphalia had state elections yesterday and returned a local parliament that shows no clear majority coalition. NRW, as it is often known in Germany, is the country’s most populous state, with roughly 18 million inhabitants (about 10 percent more than the Netherlands).

Initial returns showed dramatic losses for the Christian Democrats (CDU), less dramatic losses for the Social Democrats (SPD), comparatively big gains for the Greens and the Left, along with losses for the FDP that were minor compared with the last state elections but major compared with 2009′s national elections. These same returns projected a one-seat majority for an SPD-Green coalition. Difficult, but workable.

And then the counting continued.
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