Category Archives: Germany

Where Will It Lead Us From Here?

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The German election campaign is cranking up to as close to a throbbing wave of intensity as you are likely to find in modern Germany. Very soon, Chancellor Gerhard Schr�der is going to take on the CDU’s Angela Merkel in a televised debate. Merkel has always had to do it tough in the CDU, as I’ve remarked on before, because she isn’t really the kind of person who fits the traditional shape of the post-war German conservative movement. Last time around, she was party leader but was ditched as Spitzenkandidat (a German term which compromises between a quasi-US presidential candidacy and the reality of a Westminster-style constitution) in favour of the hard-right Bavarian, Edmund Stoiber. This time, though, the polls are running heavily in her favour, after she spent the intervening period selectively eliminating the men (and they were) who did her in the first time around.

This is where it gets interesting. Last week, she was moved to give a speech in which she said a very remarkable thing. Apparently, Germany needs to retrieve the spirit of the Gr�nderzeit. This word is usually translated into English as the Founders’ Generation, which doesn’t sound terribly interesting or controversial. The point is, though, which generation, and what did they found? When you speak of the Gr�nderzeit in Germany, or Austria, you mean the 1870s and the foundation of united Germany. For some reason the Austrians use it too, perhaps stretching the definition to include the 1867 Austro-Hungarian Compromise or Ausgleich. It’s not an especially controversial word, but then, that is in part because it’s most often used to describe architecture.

Outside Germany, though, you might be forgiven for thinking this pretty eyebrow-raising. In the Anglosphere, it is fairly conventional wisdom to hold that the Wilhelmine empire was a fatal aberration in Germany’s historic development, the point at which the Germans swung off the Whiggish tracks into the future onto that infamous Sonderweg that in the end led to world war, Weimar, Hitler, more war, Auschwitz, and partition. And that foundation, after all, took place by means of conquering northern France. The proclamation of the empire took place at Versailles.

(So far, so clich�d.)

The Left would never in a million years have said such a thing. Gr�nderzeit? The time of Bismarck’s Antisocialist Laws? The foundation of the three-class voting system? Surely the injustices that began the SPD’s historic struggle. Why she did, though, is part of a very important point about identity, history and German politics.
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The SPD Opens The Door

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The SPD, in the shape of its President Franz M?ntefering, has opened the door – not to swarms of locusts, or hedge fund executives but to the CDU, and its leader Angela Merkel. M?ntefering said at the weekend he would back a grand coalition with the opposition CDU should the German chancellor Gerhard Schr?der lose next month’s general election. Of course, the consensus opinion is that this would just about kill the reform process stone dead. Morgan Stanley’s Elga Bartsch has a reasoned explanation for this view here (NB, you see I don’t only malign her. Hint: try Googling for “Elga Bartsch”).

Survey: Germany’s (likely) upcoming election

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While the more important part of Germany’s electorate seems to be treating the ongoing campaign as some kind of diversion from a rather rainy summer, there is also, according to a poll published in the Frankfurter Allgemeine today, a common understanding that the upcoming federal election – the one that will take place on September 18 if the constitutional court confirms President Koehler’s decision to dissolve the Bundestag – is a particularly important one.

Given this sentiment and the most unusual way the elections were called, it is not entirely surprising that, in addition to the usual pollsters, political scientists concerned with electoral research are having a busy summer. One of them is my friend Thorsten Faas at the University Duisburg-Essen, who is currently asking Germans to spend a couple of minutes filling out an online survey at www.wahlumfrage2005.de (in German).

So if you’re entitled to vote in Germany, are interested in the kind of questions political scientists might ask to make you reveal all your self-contradicting political opinions, and have a couple of minutes to spare for the progress of science, why not take the survey. I already did, and it didn’t hurt…

Things You Can Do When You’re 20 Points Up in the Polls

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1. Have the main headline about your electoral program be how much you’re going to raise taxes. Particularly VAT, which practically everybody pays on practically everything.

2. Face a knock-down drag-out fight with your prospective coalition partner over #1.

3. Have the two parties that make up your Union disagree about the basic approach to health care reform.

4. Present security plans that your prospective coalition partner says had been previously rejected for good reasons.

And that’s just the first 24 hours after the presentation of your campaign program.

The CDU/CSU still leads the SPD by 20 points in the polls, and I, along with every other commentator, have to think that Schr?der is toast. You just don’t make up 20 points of ground in eight weeks. But if the CDU/CSU want to make it an interesting race, they’re off to a great start…

UPDATE: 5. Eliminate grants to support university students. (The article is an interview with the SPD minister, so grains of salt advised.)

How do you say ‘corporate governance’ in German?

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About the bombings in London I have nothing useful to say, beyond expressing my sympathies for the wounded and bereaved and my admiration of Londoners’ stoic resolve. And as others, here and elsewhere, are expressing those things better than I could, I shall leave it to them to do so.

Instead I shall turn to another topic, one that is admittedly less dramatic, but important for all that. That topic is corporate governance; specifically, corporate governance as it is (or is not) implemented in Germany. In recent days German headlines have been full of two particularly interesting items: a corporate governance scandal of colossal proportions at a major firm, and now a significant governance reform that is unlikely to make top German managers very happy.

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Forthcoming German Elections?

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Apparently there are still constitutional doubts about the validity of Scr?der’s election call:

“I have my doubts whether the chancellor convincingly demonstrated that his coalition is no longer stable or has lost its ability to rule,” Karin Grasshof, a retired Constitutional Court judge, told Bild am Sonntag newspaper

Any of our German readers able to clarify what the real extent of these doubts are?

The Democratic Left/PDS Alliance

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We had some discussion on this topic back in May. The FT this morning – in addition to reporting a change of tack by Hans Eichel and Wolfgang Clement on wage levels – suggests that the Democratic Left-PDS alliance was making headway:

An early poll for ZDF television showed 18 per cent of people would consider voting for the new leftwing coalition. Mr Lafontaine said he was optimistic the new group could become the third largest party. The conservative opposition currently has an overwhelming lead in opinion polls.

Any observations from Germany on all this?

Heeding Henry.

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Joschka Fischer, the German foreign minister, may be coming out of the dog house – if only conceptually.

After even the left leaning German daily taz recently began publishing political obituaries for the man who more than anyone represents the political maturing (or not) of the generation of ’68 (following the affair about problematic political guidelines leading to criminal exploitation of German visa policies in Eastern Europe and in light of the looming federal election that will likely lead to a government without a Green party participation), Mr Fischer may have decided that it might be worthwhile to spend his remaining time in office not just by campaigning for a permanent German seat in the UN security council but by heeding Henry Farrell’s advice about the opportunities of a dieing European constitution and going back to his own foreign policy ‘roots’: In May 2000, he used a speech at Berlin’s Humboldt University to sketch out his ideas for ever closer union, “From Confederacy to Federation” (pdf available).
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