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July 3, 2009

A Fistful Of Euros

Is Sweden’s Devaluation Such A Bad Thing?

by Edward Hugh

Well, I am writing this in the form of an extended comment, since I am on holiday and using the ecellent wifi facility in the local public library, but am about to go fo lunch. As I realised as I was going to sleep last night, my last Sweden post was always going to cause [...]

July 2, 2009

Economics: Country briefings

State of the Art Monetary Policy In Sweden

by Edward Hugh

Animated by yesterday’s export driven PMI result, Sweden takes poll position in quantitative easing and commits to keeping 0.25% rates on hold till the end of 2010. Mind you, they are lucky enough to have Princeton economist and avid deflation fighter Lars Svensson in there on the board to steer them through all this. Good [...]

June 30, 2009

Economics: Country briefings

Estonia’s Neck Goes Into A Latvian-style Noose

by Edward Hugh

Well, today is the 30 of June, and still no news from the IMF on releasing the next tranche of the Latvian loan. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why (via Ott Umelas at Bloomberg).
Estonia’s fiscal deficit under European Union terms more than doubled in the first quarter from a year earlier, [...]

June 29, 2009

Economics: Country briefings

Are The IMF and The ECB Lining Up Against The EU Commission Over Latvia?

by Edward Hugh

There was a very interesting and revealing press conference given by IMF First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky and European Central Bank governing council member Christian Noyer in Paris on Thursday. Christian Noyer said that, in his opinion, Baltic countries like Latvia would not be helped by joining the single currency (the euro) prematurely.
“It’s in [...]

June 10, 2009

Economics: Currencies

These Guys Don’t Miss A Trick

by Edward Hugh

This morning Bloomberg are reporting that:
Russia’s central bank may switch some of its reserves from U.S. Treasuries to International Monetary Fund bonds, the bank’s first deputy chairman, Alexei Ulyukayev, said in Moscow today. His comments were confirmed by a bank official who declined to be named, citing bank policy. Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said last [...]

June 8, 2009

Economics and demography

David Takes On Goliath and Loses: The Ferguson - Krugman Exchange

by Edward Hugh

“As long as excessive debt is not digested, both monetary and fiscal policies are inefficient. There is not much of an alternative. Either to let the economy collapse, in order to reduce debts, and then use fiscal policy to revive it, or inundate the insolvent economy with public credit, to avoid the collapse, and loose [...]

Economics: Country briefings

Latvia - Devalue Now or Devalue Later?

by Edward Hugh

The Latvian economy is certaily stuck in a hard and not especially pleasent place at the moment, and really one chart tells it all, since as we see above the local interbank overnight interest rates have been storming upwards and through the roof over the last two weeks. As a result of this unfortunate state [...]

June 2, 2009

Economics: Country briefings

Update on the Potential for Devaluation in Latvia

by Claus Vistesen

As I pointed out recently in the context of Latvia and the impending potential for a devaluation there is a distinct risk of falling victim to the sin of crying wolf. Yet, as the plot inevitable thickens I am maintaining, as it were, my cry. There are two significant points to think about in [...]

May 28, 2009

Economics: Country briefings

Devaluation Imminent in the Baltics?

by Claus Vistesen

Even when liars tell the truth, they are never believed. The liar will lie once, twice, and then perish when he tells the truth.
One thing which is certain at the moment is that the rumour mill is grinding hard and that it is very difficult to get a clear picture of what is going on. [...]

Economics: Country briefings

Danske Bank Warn On The Baltics

by Edward Hugh

Danske Bank has issued the following advice to investors:
The event risk has risen sharply in the Baltic markets and we advise utmost caution. Yesterday, the Swedish central bank Riksbanken said it will increase its currency reserve by SEK 100 bn through a loan from the Swedish debt agency. Investors seem to believe that this [...]

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