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November 18, 2005

Economics

Denationalise Tamiflu Immediately!

by Edward Hugh

The title is really an ironic (if somewhat affectionate) reference to this post from Brad DeLong. Reading the news this morning, it seems that Tamiflu may not be such an unambiguously good thing as it was being made out to be:
Roche, the Swiss pharmaceutical group, on Thursday moved to reassure investors after US regulators [...]

November 16, 2005

Economics

UK Growth and Inflation News

by Edward Hugh

The UK economy is still very much hanging in the balance between going up and going down IMHO. The latest BoE growth estimates, coupled with not especially good employment numbers, and indications that inflation may be coming down (and hence interest rates may follow) has caused a noteable pressure on the pound sterling. BoE governor [...]

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November 15, 2005

Economics

More Growth In The Eurozone

by Edward Hugh

I think I’d better rephrase that: more overall growth, but a very mixed bag. In deriving aggregate numbers for the zone, four big economies really matter: Spain, France, Germany and Italy. Now each of these economies actually has different characteristics, so it is not clear what ‘the general picture’ means here.
Spain is the European economy [...]

November 10, 2005

Economics

The French Consumer Is Alive And Well

by Edward Hugh

Some good news on the economic front to counter all that bad news on the social one. The French economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2005 (or by 0.7% over the prebious quarter). Driving this growth: strong spending by French consumers. At this rate the French economy will [...]

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Economics

Getting Old Before Getting Rich

by Edward Hugh

This is definitely about to become the new ‘meme’ about China. Actually it is reasonably valid. China’s ‘demographic shocks’ which come principally from the great famine produced at the time of the cultural revolution, and then from the subsequent one-child policy, are undoubtedly going to have significant consequences. Today UK Tory front bench spokesman on [...]

October 17, 2005

Economics

Currency Volatility and Hungary

by Edward Hugh

As I noted last week, Hungary now seems to have lost the ‘anchor’ of a 2010 eurozone entry expectation. (see also this, and this ). As I am also indicating currency markets may well be driven at the moment by a combination of interest rate yield variations and expectations of future movements, and this may [...]

Economics

More On Exchange Rates and Policy Rate Differentials

by Edward Hugh

Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Len is obviously on the same page as I am about how the rising interest rate differential between Europe and the US is likely to drive short term currency movements:
Policy rate differentials are especially important now for the currency markets, and it pays to focus on central banks these days.
Reason 1. [...]

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Economics

Issing Gives Inflation Warning

by Edward Hugh

More evidence today of how the Central Bankers and their economic advisers are doing their best to sound the inflation alarm. This time it is ECB Chief Economist Otmar Issing:
European Central Bank Chief Economist Otmar Issing said a surge in oil prices may lead to higher-than- expected inflation in 2006, as the bank edges closer [...]

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October 14, 2005

Economics

Growth and Inflation in the UK

by Edward Hugh

Following-up on my post earlier this week on interest rate policy I see Graham Searjeant has a piece in the Times today arguing that Mervyn King has the balance wrong between fighting inflation and stimulating growth.
In a sense I think that Searjeant is not entirely fair when he says:
Growth has become even more vital [...]

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October 12, 2005

Economics

UK Jobless Upward Trend Continues

by Edward Hugh

U.K. jobless claims rose for an eighth consecutive month in September, extending the longest period of increases in almost 13 years, “as growth in Europe’s second- biggest economy slows”. This adds just a little more evidence to the fact that all is not necessarily currently all for the best in the land of John Stuart [...]

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