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October 12, 2008

A Fistful Of Euros

UK banking bailout grows in scope

by P O Neill

So to avoid the awkwardness of a Eurozone summit in Paris excluding Europe’s biggest financial centre, Gordon Brown went to Paris before the meeting and it sounded like he and Nicolas Sarkozy were on the same wavelength about how bailouts should work.  One section of the Elysée summit declaration (version fr) says

[...]

October 10, 2008

Economics and demography

A new two-speed European Union

by P O Neill

A few days ago, Edward explored the gap between the Eurozone’s monetary and political architecture (and the lack of the latter) as a potential risk to the Eurozone itself.   But in what looks likely to be a weekend of rapidly changing events, here is a new wrinkle: Nicolas Sarkozy has convened an emergency heads of [...]

October 9, 2008

Economics and demography

Frosty relations in the north Atlantic

by P O Neill

Asset freezes.  Threats of litigation.  Expressions of mystification about the intentions of a foreign government.  The latest round with another axis of evil country?  No: the current state of relations between the UK and Iceland.  As we were saying before we were so rudely interrupted, Iceland is leading the way from a banking crisis to [...]

October 7, 2008

Economics and demography

The crisis goes sovereign

by P O Neill

With European countries in a rush to take banking sector liabilities onto the public balance sheet, they might want to take a look at where that route goes, in extremis: Iceland, as a banking crisis becomes a full blown macroeconomic crisis.  Today has seen a bewildering series of events, even against the backdrop of a [...]

October 3, 2008

The European Union

Doha can wait

by P O Neill

Gordon Brown does a nice job of grabbing the headlines with Peter Mandelson’s return to the Cabinet as Business Secretary.  It’s hard to divine what this means for the European Commission.  Catherine Ashton will take his place as Trade Commissioner and there’s nothing in her background that indicates that she’s as ready as Mandy was [...]

September 30, 2008

Economics and demography

Competitive guarantees

by P O Neill

One of the diagnoses of why the Great Depression was so bad is that countries engaged in “competitive devaluation” — weakening their exchange rates to make exports cheaper, but when all try to do this, no one gains, and confidence runs out.  One wonders today if Ireland has created a new version of this risk [...]

September 28, 2008

Economics and demography

Revisiting regulatory wisdom

by P O Neill

When the dust settles on whatever form of banking bailout the US Congress eventually approves, attention will turn to reassessing the philosophy that got the US to this point.  But perhaps Europe will have to revisit some conventional wisdom too.  Consider the case of Benelux financial services giant Fortis, which if this evening’s reports are [...]

September 24, 2008

Economics and demography

Vote of confidence?

by P O Neill

The IMF has just released its latest assessment of Hungary (news release, detailed report).  It’s interesting and sobering reading — this is a country where the budget deficit nearly hit 10% of GDP last year and which is still spending 4% of GDP a year on public debt service.  In Ireland we know how this [...]

September 12, 2008

The European Union

A new job description for EU Commissioners?

by P O Neill

That’s what Paul Adamson argues for in today’s Financial Times.  The basis of the argument is that we should acknowledge that the commissioners are not a dispassionate executive branch of the European Union, but people who bring their country interests to their respective portfolios — so why not make this explicit and let the commissioners [...]

September 9, 2008

Europe and the world

Jumping the gun

by P O Neill

In an action that may remind the White House why their ally can sometimes be exasperating even to them, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili apparently pre-empted an announcement that George Bush will attend  a special “Summit of Friends of Georgia” in late October - which would be within a fortnight of the US elections in November.  White [...]

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