Rumaging around the OECD website this morning looking for the original documentation on the spate of comparative pensions articles which have been hitting the press in the last couple of days I came across something which I consider truly, truly interesting.
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Author Archives: Edward Hugh
French Referendum Poll Update
Just a quick follow up on the state of play with opinion poll outcomes in France. Le Monde today reports that of four polls published yesterday two gave a majority for the ‘yes’ vote, whilst the other two suggested a significant decline in ‘no’ support (details in fold). Since the shift is partly among socialist voters, is this a ‘Jospin effect’? (The former PS Prime Minister went public on prime tv late last week with his support for the ‘yes’ campaign)
Whilst I’m posting, this article in the FT about tensions between Barroso and Chirac makes interesting reading. In particular since it suggests that the fairly modest celebrations of the enlargement anniversary I noted yesterday may be linked to a deliberate policy of not rocking the boat at a sensitive time.
Curious detail: the FT reports “Mr Chirac believes Mr Barroso has an infuriating ability to sound like a liberal when addressing a business audience, while peddling a more French-friendly vision of a ‘social Europe’ to trade unionists.”
Wouldn’t this be yet another case of people who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.
NB following a point in the comments section, can anyone bring us up to date with some info about the evolution of and background to the vote in the Netherlands?
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Triste Est Omne Animal
Yesterday was the first anniversary of the entry of ten new states into the EU. It was an anniversary generally celebrated amidst a notable lack of champagne and fireworks. Perhaps we are living in more discrete and austere times. Nonetheless there have been articles here and there in the press, amongst them the one in the Economist which I allude to in the title.
The Economist quote actually comes from one of the founding fathers of modern medicine – the second century Greek physician Galen – and the full quote is “Triste est omne animal post coitum” (no prizes for guessing the use to which the Economist puts this idea in the context of the recent enlargement, although if any of our commentators feels moved to provide anecdotal testimony on the soundness of Galen’s original idea, then please don’t let me stand in your way).
The article is provocatively entitled “Now that we are all bundled inside, let’s shut the door“, and is a survey of all the various kinds of ambivalences and ambiguities which can now be found among the 25 member states about the enlargement process in general. An interesting if not profoundly novel assessment of the state of play. Perhaps the most surprising discovery for me was the level of tension which currently seems to exist along the Brussels/Bucharest axis.
Perhaps a more balanced assessment can be found in today’s EU observer. Unusually for me I find myself entirely in agreement with the sentiments expressed by European Commission President Jos? Manuel Barroso who is quoted as saying that the anniversary “is a happy event for all Europeans” calling the enlargement “a reunification of not only nations and peoples but also of cultures”.
French Referendum Still Up For Grabs
On Friday I suggested (using an Economist article as my point of support) that the French referendum result was far from a foregone conclusion. Further evidence for this comes from a poll published in today’s Le Monde. For the first time in recent weeks we have evidence to support the possibility of a ‘yes’ vote: 52% say they are prepared to vote in favour.
The poll was conducted by TNS-Sofres and Unilog for Le Monde, RTL and LCI.The last time this poll was conducted (15-18 April) the ‘no’ vote registered 55%, so there is evidence for some sort of change. The shift reflects an increase in those who expressed a clear intention to vote (up to 63% of those interviewed from 58% in the previous round).
Now obviously one swallow doesn’t make a summer, and opinion polls obviously have notorious problems, but it does seem that something is moving and that in France at least the game is far from over.
Bloggeurs In The News
On Thursday it was John Thornhill in the FT, then yesterday Stephen Castle of the Independent joined in. Topic du jour: the battle in cyberspace for the hearts and minds of the French voters.
Conspiracy Theory One: the US administration wants Europe to adopt the constitutional treaty because it would kill off nation states and allow Washington to deal with a more pliable Brussels.Conspiracy Theory Two: the Bush administration is secretly financing the No campaign in France because it wants to kill off Europe’s ambitions to forge a common foreign policy and rival the US on the world stage.
Financial Times Thursday 28 AprilOne says that a vote for the EU constitution would please George Bush; another uses a computer game format with arrows from a “yes” vote to a “game over” box. Not only are French opponents of the EU constitution ahead in the opinion polls they are also winning the battle of the blogs.
Independent Saturday 30 April
Scary Stuff
In a post which appeared earlier this week Tobias asks us whether, given some of the possible consequences of a French “non”, it might not be reasonable to ‘scare’ voters a little by spelling out some of the potential fallout which might follow a French rejection of the Constitution Treaty.
Perhaps the phrasing is unfortunate, but undoubtedly voters in Eurozone countries need to think long and hard about one especially sensitive area of impact: the future of the euro itself.
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Hotting Up Again!
Just as things were starting to look as if they may have been heading towards a solution, the latest news from Ukraine suggests the temperature is rising once more. Following the voting- down in parliament of a motion of no-confidence in the government of Viktor Yanukovich, AFP is reporting that a top aide to Yushchenko has announced the breaking off negotiations on the crisis, the resumption of a blockade of government premises in Kyiv and issued a demand that the parliament reconvene in emergency session overnight.
That session must have two questions on the agenda: the dismissal of the Yanukovich government along with Prosecutor General Hennadi Vassiliev, and the creation of a temporary “people’s government,” opposition spokesman Taras Spetskiv announced to protesters on a central Kiev square.
Source: AFP
Javier Solana is on his was to Kyiv, as reportedly is Polish President Alexander Kwasniewski. Negotiations, in principle, were to have resumed tomorrow. Whether this latest development is simply a turn of the screw prior to tomorrow’s meeting, or whether it represents the opening of a new phase remains to be seen.
Certainly, as a lot commentators have been pointing out, many of the moves by Kuchma, Yanukovich and Co. could be interpreted as procrastination in the expectation that the opposition supporters get cold and tired, in which case Yushchenko is left with little alternative to becoming once more proactive, which is just what he seems to be doing.
Update: (Nick 2103 CET) One thing that may cool the temperature down slightly is this report on the Ukrainian Hotline site that states that Sunday’s proposed referendum on autonomy for Donetsk has been called off. The session of Parliament that was called for tonight has also been called off, though it will meet again tomorrow.
Another Record High For The Euro
The euro today again broke through to a new high at $1.3329. This was on the back of an unexpected decline in US consumer confidence. What seems to be happening is that any piece of good news in the US temporarily stems the rise, whilst bad news sets it off again. And this despite the fact that the the European Commission itself released some pretty depressing business confidence numbers for the eurozone.
Meanwhile ECB president Jean Claude Trichet meticulously failed to mention the possibility of central bank intervention in closely watched comments to the European Parliament’s economic and monetary committee, restricting himself to repeating that currency movements like the ones we are seeing now are ‘not welcome’. So we seem set to continue on towards the $1.35 level. What happens then we’ll see if and when we get there. As they say somewhere: “this ain’t done till it’s done”.
Safeguarding Turkish Accession
The Dutch EU presidency seems to be putting the finishing touches to the summit preparations for 15/16 December. One of the major items on the agenda: decision time on opening negotiations with Ankara about Turkey’s EU membership.
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Central Bank Blues
In a fairly ironic and cryptic post yesterday I alluded to the potential influence of the Russian central bank on the value of the euro. This situation is not to be taken lightly. The euro today hit another record passing the 1.32 to the dollar mark. At the same time business confidence index readings from Germany and Italy indicate that those who need to export are none too happy about the future.
A Russian move to raise euro reserve holdings from 30% to 40% of the total, mentioned as a possibility in an FT article yesterday, could have profound consequences:
Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York, raised the prospect of a potential domino effect: ?Talk of central banks readjusting their reserves to encompass a greater euro weighting has been rife in the foreign exchange markets for quite some time, along with speculation that OPEC members may shift to euro-denominated oil sales.?A dam can only take so much pressure. Russia?s stated intent to review its reserve weightings, in favour of the euro once again, could well lead to similar announcements by its counterparts across the world.?
Source: Financial Times
So the danger is that if Russia initiates others may follow. A fall in the dollar’s value of say 30% over 3 years would be one thing, but a rapid fall of this kind of magnitude precipitated by a shift in central bank holdings over a limited time horizon would be quite another. This is definitely one to watch.