Those aren’t conflicting. Fraud or not, large majorities in the east voted for Yanukovich. One of the reasons is that the opposition was portrayed as a kind of fascist nationalist movement bankrolled by the US in order to steer Ukraine away from brotherly Russia. A lot of people bought it, and it has created a reserve of hostility that can easily be exploited (which is in constrast to the remarkably positive attitude of Yushchenko supporters.)

Neither side has a massive grass-roots movement in the east of the country. Authorities are providing incentives for pro-Yanukovich rallies. Some folks, mainly college-educated liberals and students, demostrate for the opposition. Latest rallies were in the low thousands in Crimean cities, in the low tens of thousands in Kharkiv (Ukraine’s center of higher education), and in the low tens in the proletarian Donetsk (where you’re likely to get beat up for wearing orange out on the street.)

All power structures in the two halves of the country seem to follow the party line so far, including even Kharkiv educational authorities. 26 colleges in the city have jointly called their students not to engage in civil disobedience. There are two recent reports from Kharkiv on Maidan (in Russian) from students who say that their school administrators are using threats of punishment to discourage even pro-opposition activism.

We keep getting so many conflicting signals! Sometimes we hear about demonstrations in the cities in the East; then we hear about how they are resolutely in the Yanukovych camp. Today the signals from within the country are good - the suspension of results by the Supreme Court - but on the realpolitik scale, Russia’s strident support is really worrying. Putin evidently thinks he can test the EU/US resolve on this.

The British delegate to oversee the elections said the most common trick he saw was invisible ink being used in the ballot rooms. There are so many stories coming out about corruption that this result is not going to stand. A second vote may happen, but the way things are appearing to me, this will be decided by the people, and how far Yushchenko can get the people on his side.

Talking about redrawing borders, though, is very premature. So far, there’s enough Ukrainian identity to go around.

I?m not fully up to speed on the internal demographics of the Ukraine, but wasn?t there a redrawing of the borders of Soviet republics that was done to diminish the ethnic concentration of the various regions? For instance, the ethnically Russian region of the Crimea was drawn to be included into the Unkraine. When the USSR crumbled, they just kept the republics as drawn under the Soviet era.

I wonder how the election would have changed if regions like Crimea were returned to Russia.

Feasible? A good idea in any case?

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/ukraine/index.html

It’s the Ukranian order of battle, with various details about which forces are where. There isn’t an eastern operational command, btw, just western northern and southern ones.