This is totally what I’ve heard and sensed here, Michael.

the media love statements about civil strife and all legal options being exhausted. . . Revolutions do have their romance. . .

I’ve avoided using the “R” word, because I don’t think it’s even to that point, yet. And the reporters who speculate about “civil war” I think are really misunderstanding what’s going on here at this point.

I was talking with some American friends yesterday, and the general feeling here is one of hope, some concern–but definitely not anger or fear. Honestly, I’ve been amazed and impressed with the positive energy.

I wish Yushchenko would reign in some of his firebrand coalition partners.

*L* As if Yulia could be reined in by anyone!

First, there is a big difference between Ukraine and Yugoslavia. For all the political ferment in the Ukrainian West, even while reading actvist sites like Maidan, I’ve been struck by a notable absence. There are no us-and-them comments toward the Ukrainian East. And I mean none. As in, absolutely unlike the red/blue conflict in the US.

In the East, it does seem like a lot of common folks have been spooked by the propaganda about “radicals” and “nationalists”. But for all I can tell, what’s utterly missing in the East is any kind of popular ferment. To be sure, Donetsk miners in Kiev make for an almost proverbial culture clash, kind of like Texan cowboys in New York, but if there are any ethnic tensions in Ukraine, I’ve yet to see them. I hope the illusion holds.

Second, the media love statements about civil strife and all legal options being exhausted, but, unless I’m looking in the wrong places, right now they seem to be a bit short on analysis. The Ukrainian service of FRE/RL had a round table discussion with layers of various partisanship degree. All agreed that nothing legally binding has occurred so far, and the issue now goes to the courts. As I hear, Ukraine has a very credible supreme court. While I appreciate the desire to argue from a position of strength, I wish Yushchenko would reign in some of his firebrand coalition partners. Revolutions do have their romance, but I’ll take the Florida scenario over the Georgia scenario any time.

Personally, I’m still hopefull that things will be resolved without the big-W word. As much energy as there is among the Ukrainians at the rally, it’s more hope-focused than anger-focused. And, with the huge outpouring of concern from outside the country, I keep thinking Kuchma et al, won’t *really* start anything.

This is not a professional analysis, just my observations and hopes.