Turkey Grows and Grows

One of the few real IMF success stories, the Turkish economy continues with what Serhan Cevik calls its spectacular normality:

The Turkish economy is now in its fourth year of uninterrupted growth, with an average real GDP growth rate of 7.5% per annum. Indeed, the trend growth rate surged from 3.9% in the 1990s to 5.8% in the post-crisis period and to an impressive 7.8% last year. And we project 7.2% growth for Turkey in 2005 and 6.8% next year, compared with average OECD growth rates of 2.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Obviously, this is an unusual performance for a country that had long failed to keep the economy close to its potential on a sustainable basis. In fact, the growth rate of real per capita GDP decelerated from 2.3% per annum in the 1970s to 1.7% in the 1980s and then to 1.3% in the 1990s leading to the 2001 crisis. However, with prudent fiscal and monetary policies and structural reforms, real per capita income increased by 18.9% on a cumulative basis in the last three years, and should remain on an above-trend growth trajectory in the coming years.

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About Edward Hugh

Edward 'the bonobo is a Catalan economist of British extraction. After being born, brought-up and educated in the United Kingdom, Edward subsequently settled in Barcelona where he has now lived for over 15 years. As a consequence Edward considers himself to be "Catalan by adoption". He has also to some extent been "adopted by Catalonia", since throughout the current economic crisis he has been a constant voice on TV, radio and in the press arguing in favor of the need for some kind of internal devaluation if Spain wants to stay inside the Euro. By inclination he is a macro economist, but his obsession with trying to understand the economic impact of demographic changes has often taken him far from home, off and away from the more tranquil and placid pastures of the dismal science, into the bracken and thicket of demography, anthropology, biology, sociology and systems theory. All of which has lead him to ask himself whether Thomas Wolfe was not in fact right when he asserted that the fact of the matter is "you can never go home again".

3 thoughts on “Turkey Grows and Grows

  1. it’s a bit misleading, staying to the facts :

    they start from very very low and they have a long long way to go :

    GDP per head (US$; purchasing power parity) * Real GDP growth =

    Turkey

    7,839 * 0.043 = US$337

    France

    29,609 * 0.021 = US$621

    Each year (and i’m very gentle, i used PPP) we are twice more rich !

  2. Yes, obviously like China and India they start from a very low base, and some of the growth is only recovery from a very big crash, but still they are on the ramp, and they are moving relatively quickly.

  3. yes, but to catch up china used to have more than 10% (and sometime much more, and for some analyst much much more 😉 ) of growth, it s not the case in Turkey :

    in our case, to catch up they have to earn more than US$621/y ( in PPP, the reallity is worste), it s mean a growth at more than 8 %

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