Yes, I’?m sure you are right that “the reasons why” were many and various.

“was seen for what it was, something that would stall the integration bicycle that has to move forwards if it is not to fall.”

I’m sure this was present too, especially in the case of Ms Thatcher. But my main points now would be two. In the first place it is going to be very difficult for the EU to ‘back off’ from this now. Dither maybe, but back off completely, I doubt it. Precisely because of the muslim component. The EU would have a hell of a lot of complicated explaining to do.

Secondly, Turkey’s demographics at present seem to be one of the causes for aprehension. My bet is that ten years from now this will be seen in a different light: we aged Europeans will be jealous of all that youth. We will welcome ‘growth hungry’ Turkey as part of the club.

I think the basic point is that societies evolve.

Both the AKP and the military ‘guarantors’ of the secular order had to be offered a bait to move in this direction, since as the course of the negotiations has shown, the main players in Turkey, for very different reasons specific to their own power bases, will find it difficult to adapt to European conceptions of civil society. Their very different orientations keeps them in an arm-wrestling match which freezes out other players until one of the two main forces has gained the upper hand.

I am guessing that even the Germans knew all along that Turkish accession was never going to happen, and that they never even wanted it, because of the political implications for the German European role.

What they did want was Turkey’s forces eased out of a potentially troublemaking position in Cyprus and eventually Turkey accepting some half-way house whereby they would institutionalise the level of secular democratisation achieved in the pursuit of the bait, thereby providing Germany with a very good trading partner. Chirac risked a lot of political credibility on backing this ploy, and as usual, Britain had only the vaguest idea of what was really going on. (One can’t have Echelon bugging absolutely, one might get caught).

As I said, pure guesswork, but it makes more sense to me than the alternatives. France is a big investor in Turkey, but I’m sure the prospect of another form of strong atlanticism within an already erratic EU was seen for what it was, something that would stall the integration bicycle that has to move forwards if it is not to fall.

oh really? sounds like the rantings of a bitter Canadian ‘federalist’ who’s a little out of touch with public opinion in Qu?bec. you might be surprised to know that a majority of Qu?b?cois people now support independence from Canada, as evidenced by the latest polls. and while this support has admittedly surged recently due to the shameless corruption of the federal Liberals coming to light, for about a third of Qu?becois it has always been there and isn’t tied in any real way to any tangible political issues one could `blackmail’ Ottawa with.

Spain recognises Gibraltar? That is news to me

Not the state, EU makes the Turkey state more religious but a country that is less religious

“All of the new members that recently joined wanted to do so and didn’t need coaxing from the EU to implement things that are self evident in europe, such as respect for human rights enshrined in their legal system.”

You mean with Roma rights in Cental Europe and Russian rights in the Baltic? Absolutely no coaxing necesarry *cough*

well they recognise the other EU members to mention but one minor difference.

I would agree in principle with your theory that Turkey will be more ‘European’ once it joined were it not for stumbling blocks, such as the involvement of the army in politics which might suggest that they might also just harden their stance in many issues.

A more cautious approach is probably wiser, I don’t see why this all or nothing approach is necessary at this moment.

It depends what the yardstick is I suppose, we still can’t get honest numbers out of Italy’s economics department on government spending, and this was one of the original members.

“I never refered to the ‘Turks themselves’”

OK fine, I accept. But then you say this:

“how Turkey will behave when it joins”

Or how France behaves, or how the UK behaves, or how the UK behaves…..

I just reject this nationalistic rhetoric. Why not how the present Turkish government behaves, the US administration, French anti-globalisers? The other way of talking implies that nations are not evolving aggregates of diverse origins and opinions, but eternal identities carved in stone.

“thought out pro-atlanticist move”

Aha, so this is the problem, Turkey might be a ‘Trojan Horse’ for the US. I really don’t see the world this way, but even if I did, wouldn’t it be better to try and draw Turkey nearer to Europe. I mean there is Oil (the new pipeline) and Turkey *can* help with relations with the Muslim countries and with those existing EU citizens who are muslim, as well of course with some central asian countries etc. If ‘atlanticism’ is your enemy, then presumeably you are better of drawing Turkey in.

If this is a precursor to how Turkey will behave when it joins, I’m not impressed. The same way I’m not impressed with Schroeder advocating such a poorly thought out pro-atlanticist move such as offering outright membership to Turkey without considering any other alternatives.

It was poor leadership, it has weakened the european bargaining position both against the US and Turkey and it has alienated France and many other pro-europeans.

If this approach works for Turkey then why not for Morroco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Israel etc. The wider issue is how Europe will deal with countries in its periphery (it will have to sooner or later) and it can’t be the all or nothing approach it has followed with Turkey.

No, the UK is fully behind Turkey membership. I think it will be non-negotiable for Blair. Actually it ooccurs that the UK might even try and veto any attempt to *change* existing policy.

The origins of the proposal probably come from eurosceptic Thatcher, who strongly wanted Central Europe and Turkey in to sabotage the Federalist project, in this sense it looks like she may have come back to haunt us.

“I don’t think that is too much to ask”

I don’t think anyone is arguing anything different from this. The highest standards should be maintained, this is in Turkey’s interest too. It was the way you spoke about the Turks themselves that worried me.

I agree with your general analysis that Turkey, like China, India and Brazil, is a new emerging power. Just give it 20 or 30 years.