http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ee503224-23a7-11da-b56b-00000e2511c8.html

When I read this I just can’t help thinking about Spain, and what might have happened if the military coup of 1981 had succeeded.

“But the idea of EU entry before Ankara stops its human rights abuses and its threats against its neighbors is an non starter.”

David, Marcin….

But aren’t we all agreed about this, I mean is anybody proposing that Turkey be admitted *before* human rights abuses end?

I thought the debate was between those who favoured entry after Turkey has transformed itself (and this is why accession is not being considered before 2014) and those who, even if Turkey meets the human rights conditions still doesn’t want it as a member. This was the understanding I had.

Of course there could be another sub-debate between those who demand that Turkey comply on human rights: focusing basically over whether more time is needed to achieve those objectives. But again, the current target date is an *at the earliest* one.

“I think that it is not so much a question of helping the Turks become a better state as a matter of the uniformity of standards throughout the union.”

What I don’t see is that these two objectives need necessarily be in conflict. I think there is no question, human rights should be applied uniformly.

“While I would be interested in knowing more about who’s thinking of a Europe of regions,”

Well I think this current is strong in all those regions which have a strong identity of their own which they don’t feel is reflected in the identity of the nation state which in theory represents them. I think this is an interesting topic in itself, and maybe for another occassion.

I have to 100% agree with this point. One reads endlesly about how the EU will help the secularists. It is the secularists who created wide human and civil rights problems, the mass killings of the Kurds, and before that the laws sayign speakign Kurdish was illegal, the invasion and hard line on Cyprus, and even the prosecution of Pamuk.

If the issues were only economic or cultural I would say that the idea of EU entry being theraputic for Turkey could be in the the debate. But the idea of EU entry before Ankara stops its human rights abuses and its threats against its neighbors is an non starter.

Citizens of the Union have a right to expect that their basic human rights will be respected in any country of the union that they travel to, permanently or temporarily; that basic judicial standards will be upheld in realtion to their property, information, and investments abroad; and finally that commercial transactions take place within a legal framework and that their legally purchased goods will not be interfered with by the authorities.

There can be no true common market between the current EU states and a state that does not respect basic norms, which extend beyond the purely commercial - even if private transactions are secure, one cannot deal with a society where one’s associates may disappear, and where one is not free to say what one wishes.

Beyond the commercial considerations, if your idea of the European Union is as a single area sharing common values and laws, we cannot have areas where the most basic freedoms are not available. This would be like allowing areas of a country to fall under the control of criminal gangs, which we can confidently say has not been good for Northern Ireland.

“Foreign Secretary Jack Straw warned of “terrible” repercussions for co-existence with the Muslim world if the European Union fails to follow through on the process for admitting Turkey to the union. “We cannot afford to get this wrong,” Straw said Thursday in a speech in which he argued for Turkey to begin long-awaited accession talks on October 3 despite Ankara’s refusal to recognise the government of Cyprus. “By welcoming Turkey we will demonstrate that Western and Islamic cultures can thrive together as partners in the modern world. The alternative is too terrible to contemplate,” he said.”

This sounds more like a threat than an argument. All of this needs de-dramatising.

The religous parties are actually more ethnically inclusive and less hyper-nationalist, but they don’t believe in equal rights for women or many individualistic human rights. So they are a problem too.

At some point this problem has to be faced. I’m in favor of accession talks starting, but I can’t see Turkey entering the EU unless the political situation fundamentally changes, and the hyper-nationalist tone of Turkish political discourse changes.

I feel like people who are in favor of Turkish accession are blithely ignoring these issues in many cases. There’s no way Turkey can get in unless they generally accept European human rights standards. At this time, they fundamentally don’t, and they want the freedom to occupy other countries and massacre their own citizens with impunity. Unless this mindset changes over the course of accession negotiations, they won’t get in.

This one in the EU observer seems to say that the ambassadors are deadlocked about how to react to the common Cyprus declaration. This explains the silence.

And this one in the FT indicates the extent of the presure inside Turkey. Also I suspect events over the border in Iraq may also be increasing activity among the Kurds, who may feel a ‘now or never’ situation is approaching.

“In spite of attempts by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, to reach out to the separatist Kurds, a rise in demonstrations and violent incidents involving nationalists and Kurdish separatist sympathisers has led to hundreds of arrests in recent weeks.”

“Now you can see why this government cannot make any more concessions on Cyprus,” a diplomat said, referring to intense pressure on the Turkish government from some of its counterparts in the EU to recognise the government of Cyprus, an EU member, before the accession process begins, or as soon as possible after that.

Many who have reservations about Turkey membership point, as does Marcin, to the situation in the Kurdish part of Turkey. Again, I am unclear what is being proposed. Should the EU be favouring the establishment of an independent Kurdistan (to include parts of Turkey, parts of Iraq and parts of Syria)? If so what would be the relationship of this new state with the EU? Would Turkey be a more or a less acceptable member of the EU if Kurdistan were a separate state? These are large questions, and really they need addressing.

If we look at Kosovo for guidance, the EU has consistently opposed the creation of a separate state, and it is only the US which has indicated that this might be a possible outcome.

I think here it is important to remember that the EU is a union of *states*, and these tend to be very nervous about any issues which involve re-drawing nation state frontier boundaries: Scotland, N Ireland, Flanders, Corsica, Basque Country, Catalonia, Gibraltar etc etc.

Personally I favour the EU’s evolution into a union of regions, shedding the nation states at some point, then we would really be something more akin to the US of A.

Well Peter, you are right, it doesn’t *have* to be, but as things stand it is, since this is what they have been offered: full membership, and the negotiations have been committed to on this basis. So there is the not unimportant question of the *word* of the EU here.

Angela Merkel is questioning this outcome, as, it appears is Austria. I personally am posting about this survey since even though I do think Turkey should *eventually* become a full member - maybe the partnership people are talking about would be really interesting in the case of India - I don’t think that this should be pushed regardless of what EU citizens actually think.

We can’t criticise the EU for being ‘unresponsive’ and ‘wooden’ and then forget this just because we like the outcome.

I don’t think Turkey *membership* should be pushed so hard it undermines the long term evolution of the political union. Having said that I think if our political leaders were campaigning on the right issues, people might understand better why having a young and populous Turkey might be a good thing.

As I don’t stop repeating I personally am in favour of Turkey EU membership, partly because they are a ’young’ society, which I think will be a good balance in an ’older’ EU. But this is not the only reason. I think having Turkey in the EU will send a message out to the rest of the world about what contemporary European values really are, and I welcome that message. I am aware that others do not, and I think this is a legitimate area of debate.

I think it is veeeery important to keep in mind that we are talking about ten years from now, and we need to think globally (what will the world be like in 2014) and we need to think strategically (the EUs relations with the developing world, which we will want as markets and sources of investment for our savings, given our ageing gradient). So while I don’t agree with Schröder on many things, I do agree with him that Merkel is making a huge strategic error in terms of Europe’s future interests.

Yes, you got it. It’s about to become a young adult society. That’s the theory, now let’s see if it works.

And remember all this is about how this will have evolved 10 ten years from now.