Comments on: Transnistria: a solution? http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/transnistria-a-solution-in-the-air/ European Opinion Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:33:44 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: GuideMoscow.com - Recent Top Moscow News » Blog Archive » What’s in a name? http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/transnistria-a-solution-in-the-air/#comment-21201 GuideMoscow.com - Recent Top Moscow News » Blog Archive » What’s in a name? Thu, 17 Jul 2008 06:34:18 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3229#comment-21201 [...] calls the territory) for as long as I can remember has been pushed out, and just at a time when some believe a resolution to the conflict might be in the works. We can only hope that the guy taking his place wasn’t chosen because of his name - [...] [...] calls the territory) for as long as I can remember has been pushed out, and just at a time when some believe a resolution to the conflict might be in the works. We can only hope that the guy taking his place wasn’t chosen because of his name - [...]

]]> By: Global Voices Online » Transnistria: Voice of Tiraspol http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/transnistria-a-solution-in-the-air/#comment-21182 Global Voices Online » Transnistria: Voice of Tiraspol Tue, 15 Jul 2008 23:01:44 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3229#comment-21182 [...] years, it seems like a solution to Moldova's long-unresolved secessionist conflict is always being forecast but never quite materializes. Meanwhile, the people who live in the unrecognized Transnistrian [...] [...] years, it seems like a solution to Moldova's long-unresolved secessionist conflict is always being forecast but never quite materializes. Meanwhile, the people who live in the unrecognized Transnistrian [...]

]]> By: Global Voices Online » Moldova: Neutrality and Transnistria http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/transnistria-a-solution-in-the-air/#comment-20767 Global Voices Online » Moldova: Neutrality and Transnistria Mon, 02 Jun 2008 22:10:07 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3229#comment-20767 [...] Muir of A Fistful of Euros writes that one way to solve the Transnistria problem could be for Moldova to declare “permanent [...] [...] Muir of A Fistful of Euros writes that one way to solve the Transnistria problem could be for Moldova to declare “permanent [...]

]]> By: Douglas Muir http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/transnistria-a-solution-in-the-air/#comment-20766 Douglas Muir Mon, 02 Jun 2008 17:28:09 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3229#comment-20766 I have no information, just guesses. New President in Russia; maybe Medvedev would like to put a foreign policy feather in his cap. Meanwhile, Voronin is facing elections next March, and he's not terribly popular. (Nobody else is, either, but still.) As I said, just guesses. Doug M. I have no information, just guesses. New President in Russia; maybe Medvedev would like to put a foreign policy feather in his cap. Meanwhile, Voronin is facing elections next March, and he’s not terribly popular. (Nobody else is, either, but still.)

As I said, just guesses.

Doug M.

]]> By: Doug Merrill http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/transnistria-a-solution-in-the-air/#comment-20765 Doug Merrill Mon, 02 Jun 2008 16:45:03 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3229#comment-20765 Doug, any thoughts on why now? Is it just something low-level churning along that has finally borne fruit? Doug, any thoughts on why now? Is it just something low-level churning along that has finally borne fruit?

]]> By: Douglas Muir http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/transnistria-a-solution-in-the-air/#comment-20764 Douglas Muir Mon, 02 Jun 2008 08:19:38 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3229#comment-20764 Nicholas, you're right -- but that doesn't mean Russia isn't worried about it. After all, few Georgians were interested in NATO membership when Shevardnadze was running the place. And Voronin is just the sort of leader who'd be a target for a "Rose Revolution". (Not that I think that's going to happen -- Moldovans are pretty apathetic, and also Voronin is seen as a legitimately elected leader even by people who don't like him.) And getting a former Soviet Republic to publicly declare neutrality would be a nice publicity coup anyhow. Randy, Transnistria has some of the fastest population loss of any post-Soviet state. By its own figures, Transnistria has lost more than 20% of its population since the breakup. They had 679,000 people in 1989. In 2004 their census found 555,000. The 2007 estimate is 537,000. (Again, those are Transnistria's own figures.) Transnistria seems to be another of those countries where people have stopped having children. However, most of the decline has been from emigration -- and most of the emigration has been Russian. Most Russian families have only been there for one or two generations, and it's very easy for them to get on the bus to Moscow. Note that this affects the prospects for a settlement. As the number of Russians in the province shrinks, so does Russia's interest in it. To be sure, there are other reasons -- prestige, investment, face; there are very few Russians in South Ossetia, but that's not stopping Russia from backing it against Georgia. But it's a factor. Doug M. Nicholas, you’re right — but that doesn’t mean Russia isn’t worried about it. After all, few Georgians were interested in NATO membership when Shevardnadze was running the place. And Voronin is just the sort of leader who’d be a target for a “Rose Revolution”. (Not that I think that’s going to happen — Moldovans are pretty apathetic, and also Voronin is seen as a legitimately elected leader even by people who don’t like him.) And getting a former Soviet Republic to publicly declare neutrality would be a nice publicity coup anyhow.

Randy, Transnistria has some of the fastest population loss of any post-Soviet state. By its own figures, Transnistria has lost more than 20% of its population since the breakup.

They had 679,000 people in 1989. In 2004 their census found 555,000. The 2007 estimate is 537,000. (Again, those are Transnistria’s own figures.)

Transnistria seems to be another of those countries where people have stopped having children. However, most of the decline has been from emigration — and most of the emigration has been Russian. Most Russian families have only been there for one or two generations, and it’s very easy for them to get on the bus to Moscow.

Note that this affects the prospects for a settlement. As the number of Russians in the province shrinks, so does Russia’s interest in it. To be sure, there are other reasons — prestige, investment, face; there are very few Russians in South Ossetia, but that’s not stopping Russia from backing it against Georgia. But it’s a factor.

Doug M.

]]> By: Randy McDonald http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/transnistria-a-solution-in-the-air/#comment-20763 Randy McDonald Mon, 02 Jun 2008 00:31:52 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3229#comment-20763 "But ask any Transnistrian, and he’ll tell you it’s for “Papina i moia Respublika” — Daddy’s and My Republic. This refers to President-since-1991 Smirnov and his loathsome offspring, and the fact that they’ve installed themselves in ministries, made multimillion dollar fortunes, and basically set up as feudal lords." A Transnistrian housemate of mine told me that the place is run by thieves, citing several specific examples. If people are leaving Moldova proper at a high rate, I can only imagine how quickly Transnistria is shrinking. “But ask any Transnistrian, and he’ll tell you it’s for “Papina i moia Respublika” — Daddy’s and My Republic. This refers to President-since-1991 Smirnov and his loathsome offspring, and the fact that they’ve installed themselves in ministries, made multimillion dollar fortunes, and basically set up as feudal lords.”

A Transnistrian housemate of mine told me that the place is run by thieves, citing several specific examples. If people are leaving Moldova proper at a high rate, I can only imagine how quickly Transnistria is shrinking.

]]> By: Nicholas http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/transnistria-a-solution-in-the-air/#comment-20760 Nicholas Sun, 01 Jun 2008 07:51:27 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3229#comment-20760 I'd add that the NATO thing is even less of a concession from Moldova's side than may first appear. Moldovan governments have long accepted that commitment to continue their existing neutrality policy is going to be part of the eventual deal, and only the Christian Democrats, whose support is less than 10%, are inclined to make a big deal of NATO membership. I’d add that the NATO thing is even less of a concession from Moldova’s side than may first appear. Moldovan governments have long accepted that commitment to continue their existing neutrality policy is going to be part of the eventual deal, and only the Christian Democrats, whose support is less than 10%, are inclined to make a big deal of NATO membership.

]]> By: Fidel Pardussi http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/transnistria-a-solution-in-the-air/#comment-20758 Fidel Pardussi Sun, 01 Jun 2008 00:18:01 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3229#comment-20758 Hi Doug, Just wanted to ask about the official name of the territory in question, I thought it was Trans-Dniester. In other words, a "D" is missing -- is this lost in translation or what? The deal seems to be OK for the Moldovans. I don't think that Moldova any time soon wants to join NATO and after 25 years or more the circumstances might change, meaning that Russia might not be able to prevent them joining if the Moldovan leadership decided then that it wanted to join. For the Russians the only real problem is Ukraine, and if Ukraine were to join NATO then Moldova would have been completely isolated and rendered unimportant. Interesting... Hi Doug,

Just wanted to ask about the official name of the territory in question, I thought it was Trans-Dniester. In other words, a “D” is missing — is this lost in translation or what?

The deal seems to be OK for the Moldovans. I don’t think that Moldova any time soon wants to join NATO and after 25 years or more the circumstances might change, meaning that Russia might not be able to prevent them joining if the Moldovan leadership decided then that it wanted to join.

For the Russians the only real problem is Ukraine, and if Ukraine were to join NATO then Moldova would have been completely isolated and rendered unimportant.

Interesting…

]]>