They are crooks. Some of them with ties to genocidal people. But if there were a honest fully democratic referendum about a declaration of independance in Republika Srpska, which side would win?
Furthermore, if the government of said entity decided to do this and would be determined to pull it off, how could you stop them?
If no acceptable means to do so are at hand, how sure are you that they could be persuaded not to do so?
If you could (big if here) form a honest government in that entity, would it be firmly set against independance?

The EU has a set of rules, which for better or worse include popular rule in some form. In the present state of being ruled by an autocratic viceroy Bosnia (and Hercegovina - as I was informed asking why ice cream is paid for in kuna in Neum) is not fit to be let into the EU. Now either we need to abolish the very concept of entities, which is a part of the peace agreement, or we need to look at the governments that will arise in the entities if the goal of establishing truly democratic governments is achieved.

I did not intend to hurt your feelings by implying that the current government is morally acceptable. Sorry. But at the same time all I can see is that a democratic independance movement will eventually arise.

(Sure, the IRA, ETA and Corsican separatists all have dodgy elements too, to a lesser degree than the RS mob, but no way are any of them getting anything like a state to run anytime in the foreseeable future.)

Please tell me it’s April 1st.

When they hand over Karazdic and Mladic and start making greater efforts than they have done so far, start reconstructing the mosques they destroyed in (for starters) Banja Luka and Foca, and take substantive and symbolic measures to show that members of all communal and/or religious groups have equal status and rights in all areas of public life in the territories they control I’ll start to tolerate that sort of talk.

But to call the RS authorities a “democratic independence movement”, if I understand you correctly, that is both historical revisionism and an apologia for the committers, proponents and apologists for, at the very least, mass killings.

Be careful how you formulate this. The Basques will want a referendum on ’self determination’ once Eta goes the way of the IRA. Given the opportunity they may well vote yes. The PP, if in government, would refuse point blank to let them leave, they would do everything in their power to prevent the vote even being held. And beyond that I have no idea.

The point being that Spain is already a member.

Another scenario altogether would be a Conservative government in the UK, where England wanted to leave the EU and Scotland voted to remain. But these issues wouldn’t be the one you mentioned, even if England tried to carry Scotland with it under duress.

Then we are in deep trouble. At least if this attitude lasts. Is there any hope it won’t? Ten years is a long time.

The EU cannot have a member that would surpress a democratic independance movement. This is just impossible. A member state must essentially have free elections. Therefore time is on the separatists side. I don’t see how you would abolish the entities to the point they couldn’t hold elections and hold a referendum on independance.

Neither is there any carrot to offer. 2020 is not a meaningfull thing to say. Cutting off aid is not very realistic either. The EU has an interest in these regions developing.

@Seesaw — My point is that Dayton was by no means an American _diktat_; and furthermore, than American interest and influence in Bosnia has been steadily declining for a while now. The US is still a player, but it’s not the most important player.

The US continues to be very involved in the region — Camp Bondsteel, the new bases in Bulgaria, etc. But /Bosnia/ is not a very high priority.

I know that many Serbs think Serbia “deserves” Republika Srpska “in return for” Kosovo. But this is unlikely to happen… possible, yes, but unlikely. It would require the EU to admit that it was wrong, that the Bosnia project was futile, and the last ten years were a complete waste of time and effort. This is unlikely.

@Randy — Macedonia I’d say lost about a decade. Macedonia today looks a lot like Poland or Romania c. 1995, just without the industry. Bosnia and Serbia, closer to two decades; they’re still not back to their 1991 standard of living.

@Luke — thanks.

Doug M.

Only a decade? Before the civil war, the poorer republics seem to have been not far behind Poland. Now look at them.