Speaking as someone who may be totally misinformed, expecting the Croatian government’s actions to be marked by the rule of law as a prerequisite for membership doesn’t seem unfair. And, since neither Austria nor France has waged a nationalist war of independence ending in the wholesale expulsion of minorities of late, your comparison doesn’t quite work.

There is nothing to argue about Gotovina and Croatian politicians’ idiotic desire to wink to the extreme right wing (which might be loud but certainly is not as big of a factor as is in, e.g., Austria or France).

However, I am puzzled by the logic of European politicians in this case. By speeding up the process of Croatia joining EU, they would easily defeat those Croatian forces which are not at the level of modern European standards. Instead, by playing Gotovina card, they actually fuel support for those extreme right wing forces. This might be the actual intent of EU since maybe there is no real interest for further EU expansion at this point. The miscalculation here is that this course of action is likely to create more problems in the region in the long run, leaving Croatia and others out of the EU, as well as creating a long term potential for serious instabilities that will happen a bit too close to EU to be ignored.

One would think that at least some of those working in Brussels have some brains. Apparently not.

At this stage, the best chance for Sanader - apart from Gotovina miraculously appearing - is in far right and Eurosceptic loons making a killing on the upcoming local and regional elections in Croatia. Sanader might use their success as an argument for quick admission - only that can prevent the palpable rise of Euroscepticism and anti-European feelings in general (see my blog for the results of latest opinion polls).

I will note that “included in our government” can be stretched a bit. The former Romanian PSD government had an intermittent minority partner, PUR, which was “included” or not depending on whether you considered certain minor posts — head of the Agency for Small and Medium Enterprises, say, or Secretary of State for Tourism — as being part of the government. So if Sanader has a Serb or two tucked away, he might be off the hook on that one.

But yeah, politicians from the former YU are weirdly willing (and able) to lie in front of large audiences with a straight face. Djindjic, rest his soul, was very good at it. Slobo, of course, was the master. And still is; he lies his ass off, vigorously, loudly, and with great indignation, pretty much every day in the Hague.

So, by regional standards Sanader’s being positively straightforward.

Anyhow. Big picture: what happens next? Assume no Gotovina. Will Croatia not join in 1/1/07? What are the next steps?

curious,

Doug M.