How big will it be in 2025?

But they might be in 10 years.

How will the prospect of Turkish membership change the development of the EU’s institution. I don’t think we can simply assume that there will be a development to closer cooperation and more majority decisions.

As to the EU as a simple free trade zone, I do think that it’s not what interests Turks.

There already is a customs agreement.

As to the EU as a simple free trade zone, I do think that it’s not what interests Turks. I believe that they have the same attitude people in Spain had when the were seeking memberhood. If I’m not wrong, Spanish opinion is amongst the most Europhiles in the EU.

DSW

As for the Bushians within the new EU members, I believe things are slowly evolving considering the mess in Iraq. I’m not sure most of them will be so keen to jump on the bandwagon next time…

DSW

Turkey is definitely a big player in the region and will be even more in the future and the EU needs to have strong ties, but I’m not convinced at all it has a place in EU, being too big, too poor and of a remotely European culture. I think the emphasis is really on the size, if Turkey was 10 times smaller I don’t think anyone would mind too much. But that the major country in the EU will one day be Turkey is worrying considering its place in the European family is at least questionable.

Oh well, I guess George W Bush project for the “Greater Middle East” is worth throwing the EU in jeopardy…

The short answer, I think, is that among the population, EU membership is shorthand for prosperity. And who doesn’t want to be richer? “European” is also shorthand for modern, which is an aspirational word as well. Those two promises legitimize quite a bit of changes to domestic law.

the choice facing a state bordering the EU regarding accession is whether to enjoy free trade with these neighbors, or with those.

Well, you’d want to trade with the neighbors that are rich. Right?

now with Turkey on board…

Well, with the door open and the long slog through the acquis underway … there is still a lot of work to be done before even thinking about incorporating other parts of the Roman Empire into the European Union.

Turkish accession will be hard work - the population is twice as big as Poland’s and per capita GDP is two-thirds that of Poland. EU institutions are not ready. But they might be in 10 years. Let’s not forget that with delays, derogations and the slow pace of EU budget frameworks, the real timetable for Turkish integration is something like a quarter of a century. Even by EU standards, that’s enough time to accomplish quite a bit.

who is Turkey? what if the people living in Turkey do want such “intrusive influence”? As a Spaniard that makes me think to Spain situation in the past, Franquistas abominated the exigences of the EEC, but most of us, who had a clear knowledge of how was life in more democratical states, such exigences were pure Gospel.

DSW

This applies doubly so if the EU maintains its protectionist tendencies towards certain industries (such as agriculture), and the choice facing a state bordering the EU regarding accession is whether to enjoy free trade with these neighbors, or with those.

I dont know how much Turkey feels that it will have to change since now they know that no matter what the opposition ‘big brother’ will twist any arm to get its protege into this country club.

I’m sorry if i’m not buying all this scaremongering about the clash of cililizations etc. , I didnt buy that WMD story either and this seems to be coming from the same source.

As for the limits to the EU… interesting list Doug, however, now with Turkey on board I think you are forgeting Israel. A country with a largely European population so the arguments that were used against Turkey don’t apply here. And as you say:

‘Enlarging the area of peace, law, stability and trade is Europe’s key task here in the early 21st century’

So how long before the US dumps that baby on our doorstep as well ?

Not slamming the door shut now means that the EU will be able to play a constructive and extremely intrusive role in Turkey’s development over at least the next ten years (and indefinitely, should Turkey become a member). Turkish accession will take at least that long, and even then a great many people, some of them in high office and not all of them fools, will say it happened too fast.

As indeed they said about the accession of the ten newest members.

It was not at all foreordained that central Europe would be vibrant and interesting, firmly anchored in Euro-Atlantic structures, a decade and a half after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Imagine unreformed Meciar in Slovakia, little Lukashenkos in the Baltics, pan-Magyar agitation and Trianon revisionism in Budapest, a Poland tending toward the wacko end of Marian nationalism, and so on. None of these alternatives is terribly far from reality, and the steady work of the EU’s minions has helped orient the region toward the wider world, toward a common future, toward a Europe (you’ll pardon the Bushism I hope, since it’s from the father) whole and free.

Enlarging the area of peace, law, stability and trade is Europe’s key task here in the early 21st century. It would be a shame if faintheartedness brought that to a stop at the edge of the Bosporus.

(I do have thoughts on the limits of the EU, and they are here.)