Comments on: Is something stirring in Belarus? http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/is-something-stirring-in-belarus/ European Opinion Mon, 22 Mar 2010 02:36:12 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Babeouf http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/is-something-stirring-in-belarus/#comment-25668 Babeouf Wed, 24 Jun 2009 09:31:33 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=5805#comment-25668 Its a bigger market in the throes of crisis. Every European leader wants to protect domestic capacity. They want new demand, exports , not new sources of competition, imports. In the long run the EU may provide a better option than Russia. In the short run Russia is probably not just the best bet but the only bet. Germany is the 'Economic Powerhouse' of Europe. For every German government a primary strategic relation is its relation with Russia. It may well become Germany's prime strategic relation. It is unlikely that the government of Belarus will be allowed to damage this. The survival of Europe could easily depend on its relationship with Russia. Belarus cannot trump this ace of spades. Its a bigger market in the throes of crisis. Every European leader wants to protect domestic capacity. They want new demand, exports , not new sources of competition, imports. In the long run the EU may provide a better option than Russia. In the short run Russia is probably not just the best bet but the only bet. Germany is the ‘Economic Powerhouse’ of Europe. For every German government a primary strategic relation is its relation with Russia. It may well become Germany’s prime strategic relation.
It is unlikely that the government of Belarus
will be allowed to damage this. The survival of Europe could easily depend on its relationship with Russia. Belarus cannot trump this ace of spades.

]]> By: sid http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/is-something-stirring-in-belarus/#comment-25656 sid Tue, 23 Jun 2009 12:01:23 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=5805#comment-25656 Because he would prefer to be President of Byelorus than governor of a Russian province, Lukashenko must play the EU off against Russia. This is a game as old as politics. Russia offers market access, loans, subsidies, etc., and attaches relatively few political conditions to its aid. For reasons of its internal politics and official ideology, EU must attach political conditions to any aid, conditions which seriously restrict Lukashenko's freedom of maneuver. Such aid is also likely to be less generous than that offered by Russia, as Byelorus means much more to Moscow than it does to Brussels. However, the EU is still a bigger market than Russia and a less immediate threat to Byelorussian state sovereignty. Because he would prefer to be President of Byelorus than governor of a Russian province, Lukashenko must play the EU off against Russia. This is a game as old as politics.

Russia offers market access, loans, subsidies, etc., and attaches relatively few political conditions to its aid.

For reasons of its internal politics and official ideology, EU must attach political conditions to any aid, conditions which seriously restrict Lukashenko’s freedom of maneuver. Such aid is also likely to be less generous than that offered by Russia, as Byelorus means much more to Moscow than it does to Brussels.

However, the EU is still a bigger market than Russia and a less immediate threat to Byelorussian state sovereignty.

]]> By: Global Voices Online » Belarus: Signs of change? http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/is-something-stirring-in-belarus/#comment-25654 Global Voices Online » Belarus: Signs of change? Tue, 23 Jun 2009 09:48:18 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=5805#comment-25654 [...] Fistful of Euros thinks that something may be stirring in Belarus, and even believes it to be signs of an improvement in [...] [...] Fistful of Euros thinks that something may be stirring in Belarus, and even believes it to be signs of an improvement in [...]

]]> By: Babeouf http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/is-something-stirring-in-belarus/#comment-25647 Babeouf Mon, 22 Jun 2009 21:39:14 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=5805#comment-25647 The consensus is that Lukashenko is playing Russia against the EU for soft loans and any other economic advantages he can get. The other point is that his room for maneuver is small. The EU is not interested in giving Belarus exporters of dairy products access to its internal market. Russia's leadership is laid back about these activities. Now if Lukashenko applies to join NATO that would be a real crisis. The consensus is that Lukashenko is playing Russia against the EU for soft loans and any other economic advantages he can get. The other point is that his room for maneuver is small. The EU is not interested in giving Belarus exporters of dairy products access to its internal market. Russia’s leadership is laid back about these activities. Now if Lukashenko applies to join NATO that would be a real crisis.

]]> By: CG http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/is-something-stirring-in-belarus/#comment-25644 CG Mon, 22 Jun 2009 20:54:13 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=5805#comment-25644 Has Lukashenko been to Montenegro recently? He might have concluded that closer relations to the EU or the West in general are no obstacle to 1) staying friends with Russia and b) staying in power forever. Has Lukashenko been to Montenegro recently? He might have concluded that closer relations to the EU or the West in general are no obstacle to 1) staying friends with Russia and b) staying in power forever.

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