Well let’s just leave this one a few weeks to shape up. I think we both know what the other thinks on this by now :).

I have no doubt that they’ll try. The question is, will the ministers let them?

the Italian government responds

How? They are in recession and effectively asked to cut government spending by 1% GNP. Keynes isn’t everything, but he was no fool either.

Oooh, I’m not sure Alex. One of the big details about the EU we have is the huge information divide. There is virtually no freely available info on Italian economic or social or political debates in widely read media. The same also goes for Spain, Portugal and Greece (I mean when did you last read anything really informative about Greece in the mainstream media. Holidays and Olympics perhaps).

I wouldn’t argue it so strongly, but there is probably another bloc in Scandinavia, and another one in Central Europe.

It isn’t only labour which isn’t mobile in the EU, it’s information. Most of the debate is centred on political and social life in the ‘big three’.

So while you may be right that the danger of Padano secession is slight, this doesn’t mean that ‘no-one seriously fears it’. I imagine the government’s opponents suggest that by having the Lega in the government they are precipitating it. Of course, the opposition ‘may not be serious’.

Coming to Spain where I do know something, half a million plus people were on the streets of Madrid on Saturday partly at least because they believe that the support (not presence, but just support) of the secessionist Esquerra Republicana for the Zapatero government means that a Spanish break-up is a serious possibility. Of course ex-President Aznar was at their front.

Now you may say these people don’t seriously believe what they say - but they do still believe that Eta was behind the 11th March bombings, so I personally wouldn’t be to sure.

Will Spain break up? I doubt it.

But Italy is in big trouble economically, and Berlusconi is one of the most irresponsible politicians in power in a modern democracy (NB he still hasn’t come out to frontally disagree with Maroni), so anything can happen.

Everyone has backs to the wall here, and Maroni sees his opportunity. The medicine of course won’t work, and Italy’s recession will only get worse, but the Commission have no alternative. Otherwise it’s pack up your bags and go home time.