Reckless Predictions

Looking pretty good.

This entry was posted on Friday, October 8th, 2004 at 9:15 pm and is filed under A Fistful Of Euros, The European Union. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

1. Matt Says:
   October 10th, 2004 at 2:30 am

   I originally posted this on the post liked to, w/o reaslizing that that was an old post, so I’ll put it here, too, for what little it may be worth. The remarks in in regard to the claim that Ukraine and Belarus should be able to join the EU aby 2019, w/ Russia, Armenia, Azerbijian not far behind.
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   Having just recently returned from Russia, and having lived there for several years, I?m significanly less optimistic that it, Ukraine, or Belarus will be in any position to join the EU w/in 50 years. In fact, I suspect that Russia will more closely resemble a cold Nigeria than Poland in 50 years. There is just not the slightest indication that its moving in the right direction, as much as I hate to say it. If anything, the leadership in Ukraine and Belarus is worse, though I suppose there might be some more reason to think that change could happen there. And, I don?t see any good reason to think that either Armenia or Azerbijan are moving any time soon (and 15 years is soon here) from the little-khan style of leadership, so I?m not so optimistic about them, either. Sigh. I wish it were otherwise, but I just don?t see such wishes being based on anything other than wishful thinking.

2. Doug Says:
   October 10th, 2004 at 3:12 pm

   Thanks for the thoughts, Matt. Russia is not on my list, because I don’t think that Russia will ever be joining the EU. Its leaders don’t want to, its population doesn’t have the EU=prosperity idea that is a big driver in other places; in short, there’s no Russian constituency for membership.

   Over the long term — i.e., post-Lukasheno — it’s too hard to conceive of an independent Belarus that is not a member. Too much of a gray zone, without the wealth (CH), oil (NO) or fish (ISL) that keep other natural members out.

   Ukraine is a big and open question, and part of the answer will arrive with next month’s presidential election. I’d be interested to hear where you were, and what conclusions you draw.

   Compared with Turkey, the other states of the Caucasus are trivial in terms of population or size of economy. To an EU of 30+, they’ll be like Malta today. In or out, so what? A few more translators, whatever. But to GE, AR and AZ, Union membership will mean playing in the big leagues, and their citizens may well see EU as shorthand for getting rich. (Whether that link is justified is another matter, but Central Europe and the Balkans show us that people make it.)

   I’m of two minds about time frames. Fifteen years passed between the fall of the Wall and accession in Central Europe. That seems slow to me. On the other hand, consider Germany in the 15 years immediately following the end of the war. In less than ten years, it was a rearmed and member of Nato. So the political tempo can be quite rapid.

   Anyway, if you’d care to add more of your experience from the CIS, I’m sur our readers would appreciate it.

3. David Weman Says:
   October 10th, 2004 at 4:57 pm

   You’re not Matt. Matt is Matt.

4. Doug Says:
   October 10th, 2004 at 10:32 pm

   “I’m Matt and so’s my wife”

5. c Says:
   October 11th, 2004 at 3:25 am

   The other reason why Russia is not on the list is because it is so big that Russia would not only join the EU but the EU would also join Russia.