Comments on: Not Perfect But Good

By: Oliver

Oliver — Mon, 31 Jan 2005 23:49:36 +0000

I am sorry. I must have misread EU statistics.
In any case, you are strengthening my argument. Britain going out would really hurt.

By: chris

chris — Mon, 31 Jan 2005 22:10:34 +0000

[i]If you do the arithmetic with the current rebate, Britain won’t matter. But as nobody expects that to survive long term one way or the other, this is not an honest computation.[/i]
Why do you say this? Britain is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget even with the rebate. Losing a major source of funds will course problems as Germany will not be able to pick up all of that money with their current economic problems.

By: Otto

Otto — Mon, 31 Jan 2005 04:05:07 +0000

It’s more the fact that the UK is the only large EU country with a growing economy which secures our influence.

By: Oliver

Oliver — Mon, 31 Jan 2005 00:29:18 +0000

Certainly not in terms of budget. As for the military, peacekeeping issues (the only thing the EU is willing to afford) could I guess in the short term be compensated by Germany’s increasing willingness to act in international affairs.

If you do the arithmetic with the current rebate, Britain won’t matter. But as nobody expects that to survive long term one way or the other, this is not an honest computation.

Secondly, a nuclear power is not militarily insignificant. It’s a major blow to long term aspirations.

Thirdly, it endangers all those carefully weighted double majority calculations.
And last, but not least, it kills the nimbus of inevitability. And would increase the pressure on the rest, as the major defender of states’ rights is gone.

By: Otto

Otto — Sun, 30 Jan 2005 23:51:00 +0000

“political capital is worth more when not used”

Only sometimes. At other times, when people are shouting at you, it’s because you are getting what you want.

There’s no denying that the UK is in a tricky position. The governments of other leading European countries wish to centralise more decision-making in the EU, whereas British civil society has a permanent majority against this, wishing either to leave or to stay in an EU with fewer competences. Either the EU24 (or, realistically, a subgroup) will be frustrated and try to take it out on the UK, or British civil society will be frustrated and take it out on the UK government and political parties over the next decade and more. That’s the choice.

By: popo le chien

popo le chien — Sun, 30 Jan 2005 15:30:07 +0000

“rubber stamp legislatures like the Bundestag, Dail or House of Commons offer no constraint or check on executive action. Therefore referenda are necessary.”

Well in Switzerland referenda usually are the weapon of the losing side at the parliament. If a non-consensual law (or decision by the Federal Council) is being passed, then there is an 80% chance of the minority party submitting it to a “votation”. Most of these laws are upheld, whereas most of the “spontaneous” ones (ie someone submits a constitutional amendment directly to the popular vote) are rejected. This pattern has been an interesting constant in Swiss politics for the past 60 years. Sociologically speaking, masses usually are pretty conservative.

“Secondly, if Britain refuses the whole equation changes in matters of power distribution, budget and the military.”

That leaves us with power distribution (=politics) - political capital is worth more when not used. If the UK is alone against 24 “yes”, I am not sure it will play to its advantage in any later negociation.

By: Alexander Crawford

Alexander Crawford — Sun, 30 Jan 2005 11:41:56 +0000

It’s my observation that the vast majority of the debate over the EU Constitution relies overmuch on the Federalist and wantonly ignores the points and qualifications from Anti-Federalist writers. Here’s a link to the Anti-Federalist Papers (in part). Enjoy.

http://www.constitution.org/afp.htm

By: Bob B

Bob B — Sun, 30 Jan 2005 04:57:46 +0000

“rubber stamp legislatures like the Bundestag, Dail or House of Commons offer no constraint or check on executive action. therefore referenda are necessary.”

Absolutely.

By: Otto

Otto — Sat, 29 Jan 2005 23:48:36 +0000

An contemporary Europe, the point of legislatures is to give the impression of wider participation in decision-making than actually occurs; they are dignified parts of the European political system. if there were active legisalatures able to control their governments, there would be less reason to have a referendum. but rubber stamp legislatures like the Bundestag, Dail or House of Commons offer no constraint or check on executive action. therefore referenda are necessary.

By: Oliver

Oliver — Sat, 29 Jan 2005 21:35:26 +0000

If I may add an analogy to that. The legislatures have the key to the car, so that they may drive it. That doesn’t mean that they can sell or give it away without serious repercussions.