And popularity. A subsidy can be sold as a protection against unfair foreign competition. A welfare grant is simply a welfare grant. It’ll cause envy. The CAP is in long term danger if this welfare business goes on.

?In comparing 2002 GDP-per-hour levels in the four countries with the U.S. fixed at a base of 100, France tops the list at 103, Germany comes in at 101 and the U.K. bottoms out at 79.?

Yes Dave, the but is indeed meaningful. One of the problems the French have with the Luxemburg agreement is that by delinking subsidies to small farmers from production, they might be turning those farmers into recipients of a kind of welfare, with attached loss of personal dignity. In Britain, the idea of paying small farmers to manage the land for non-agricultural purposes has been mooted too ? it?s just that ours are mostly stuck out somewhere in the hills of North Wales, and there are so few of them.

I agree with Edward; all this bluster on both sides could well be to ensure room for manoeuvre. I certainly hope so.

The french won’t re-open the deal from two years back unless they have absolutely no alternative. and they’ll be supported on that by several member states.

And the British won’t give significantly on the rebate unless they get something really big - the political costs are just too high (and, let’s face it - they have a point on the structural problem with the budget).

I’m predicting a freeze in the rebate, with a generalised correction mechanism maybe to come a few years down the line. And some minor concessions on ongoing CAP reforms and the Brussels ceiling.

I’ve no crystal ball though

No, no, this was my first association too :).

It’s xenophobic, and not about the Brits.

“I?m thinking particularly of farmers, of all those who live off the land and see restrictive directives imposed on them. Yes, they receive subsidies. Yes, the Common Agricultural Policy is a major asset for our country. But subsidies don?t replace the feeling of dignity or reward for effort.”

Is that a meaningful “but”? Who knows…

“After the French ‘no’ and the ‘no’ in the Netherlands on the (EU) constitution, we are in crisis, there’s no hiding it,” he told RTL radio.

But, he added, “we mustn’t add a financial crisis to the political, institutional crisis.”

“We therefore need a compromise and I’ve said so to my (British) counterpart Jack Straw with whom I’ve spoken… we cannot not find a compromise.”

Evidently the rejection of the Constitution, by two of the EU’s founding member states, need to be played down.