I agree. I know I’m repeating myself. But that’s why all parties will work harder on a workable model of “privileged partnerships”. This could be a win-win situation for all parties involved, even Turkey, if they eventually decide that they don’t really want to be a full member. The Senior German MEP Elmar Brok also just mentioned something to that effect.

After Yukos was there any trace of doubt left that he could do exactly that? Or generally do pretty much as he pleases?

One chilling comment from a Russian reader: “For Ukraine the price of $230 is payment for its ‘democratic choice’. Why should Russia pay for that choice? You want to join the West? You want to join Nato? Go ahead!!!… If you change course, the price will change. That’s normal. That’s how all your Western friends behave. So stop crying and howling… At the end of the day the Ukrainian people always has a choice - the West, where no-one is waiting for you, or with us.”

Knee-jerk or representative of something broader?

That’s what is at stake. Russia is not ready to accept that. Neither can the EU afford to see this as a sure thing.

I doubt you could rally a strong quorum at this point for backing his pet project.

He doesn’t have to. Which is the point of that pipeline.
I am afraid I’ll have to be blunt again. Not everybody in Germany is happy with Poland controlling the alternate gas supply line. Leading me to the point that it is not all that clear that the EU will have an energy policy. The member states all have an energy policy. In all of the big three members, energy is a dangerous topic, which I find them unlikely to yield to Brussels.

we are about to diversify, big time.

That I would find highly questionable. If we do nothing in terms of state intervention, gas will take a much larger part in our energy supply. Ageing powerplants in Britain and decomissioned nuclear powerplants in Germany would be replaced with gas plants without massive state interventions. High oil prices push for substitution of oil by gas. The situation with oil isn’t really better than with gas. It’ll take a lot of effort to keep position in terms of energy independance, especially considering that the North Sea is running out of oil and gas on the British side.

I’m not, but I am into a version of intelligent agent theories, and not stupid agent theories.

“In the long run, the EU is now forced to bypass Ukraine.”

In the not so long run Ukraine will be in an EU accession process. Since the big issue is coming with Russia, you can’t leave Ukraine as a loose-cannon dangling in the middle, liable to go one way, or the other. There is no security and stability on that path.

In the long run, maybe Gerhard Schröder will be the big loser. There are now 25 members in the EU, and I doubt you could rally a strong quorum at this point for backing his pet project.

The gas will of course flow along it, but it won’t have the anticipated importance, we are about to diversify, big time.

If you are into conspiracy theories you might notice that the new agreement is scheduled to last for the projected construction time of the baltic pipeline.