Wow everyone, I presume it is just a coincidence that my Czech Post went live yesterday, but gee, there’s nothing like being ahead of the curve, is there? Bloomberg is running this story this morning:
The Czech economy may fall into a recession this year as export demand weakens, Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek said, iHned reported. The expectation that the economy may shrink is one of two scenarios with which the government is working, the news Web site cited Topolanek as saying. The premier made the comments after yesterdayâ€™s first meeting of the governmentâ€™s National Economic Board, a panel of economic advisers. The Cabinet is preparing measures, including loan guarantees for selected industries and a reduction in payroll taxes, to boost investment, iDnes said.
I think I’m right in saying I was the first analyst out of the box on this one (although admittedly, the recession scenario is only one of two they have under consideration – but I do think it is the most realistic one, for the reasons I argue in the post). So last week I was leading the pack on China, this week on the CR, who knows where all this will now end…… (oh, and don’t forget Poland – and again Bloomberg this morning).