The Czech Government Confirms the Afoe Recession Call!

Wow everyone, I presume it is just a coincidence that my Czech Post went live yesterday, but gee, there’s nothing like being ahead of the curve, is there? Bloomberg is running this story this morning:

The Czech economy may fall into a recession this year as export demand weakens, Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek said, iHned reported. The expectation that the economy may shrink is one of two scenarios with which the government is working, the news Web site cited Topolanek as saying. The premier made the comments after yesterday’s first meeting of the government’s National Economic Board, a panel of economic advisers. The Cabinet is preparing measures, including loan guarantees for selected industries and a reduction in payroll taxes, to boost investment, iDnes said.

I think I’m right in saying I was the first analyst out of the box on this one (although admittedly, the recession scenario is only one of two they have under consideration – but I do think it is the most realistic one, for the reasons I argue in the post). So last week I was leading the pack on China, this week on the CR, who knows where all this will now end…… (oh, and don’t forget Poland – and again Bloomberg this morning).

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About Edward Hugh

Edward 'the bonobo is a Catalan economist of British extraction. After being born, brought-up and educated in the United Kingdom, Edward subsequently settled in Barcelona where he has now lived for over 15 years. As a consequence Edward considers himself to be "Catalan by adoption". He has also to some extent been "adopted by Catalonia", since throughout the current economic crisis he has been a constant voice on TV, radio and in the press arguing in favor of the need for some kind of internal devaluation if Spain wants to stay inside the Euro. By inclination he is a macro economist, but his obsession with trying to understand the economic impact of demographic changes has often taken him far from home, off and away from the more tranquil and placid pastures of the dismal science, into the bracken and thicket of demography, anthropology, biology, sociology and systems theory. All of which has lead him to ask himself whether Thomas Wolfe was not in fact right when he asserted that the fact of the matter is "you can never go home again".

2 thoughts on “The Czech Government Confirms the Afoe Recession Call!

  1. This is why this blog was nominated “Best Business Blog” in the 2008 Weblog Awards – the people there new in advance that you would know in advance how the world business and economy will develop… ;-)

  2. From now on I will recommend friends reading afoe instead of Reuters. The info is much better and more up to date :)