The AFOE Plan

Jonathan of The Head Heeb sums up the detail of the US-French UNSC draft on Lebanon, and it looks eerily like the AFOE consensus solution. Key points, as we predicted, are how to arrange for everyone to claim victory..

If all these hurdles are overcome, then the Israel-Hizbullah war will end on terms that allow everyone to gain something. Israel will have weakened Hizbullah and will get a stable northern border for the first time in more than 30 years, Hizbullah will be able to claim that it fought the IDF to the end, and the Lebanese government will obtain sovereignty over the entire country as well as a chance to resolve its outstanding disputes with Israel. France, as Lebanon’s once and future patron, will increase its regional influence, and even the United States will (against all odds) have played a critical role in brokering the settlement.

This means that the proposed resolution is, at this point, about the best possible end that can be imagined for the whole sorry mess. A war in which all parties can claim achievements is one that is less likely to fester and more likely to provide a foundation upon which the underlying issues can be settled. As Israel has learned from bitter experience, a draw that leads to a resolution of the root conflict is preferable to a victory that doesn’t – the Yom Kippur War ultimately resulted in peace with Egypt while the Six Day War led to nothing but an endless nightmare of occupation. If this war, like the war of 1973, leaves all parties proud but chastened, the not-defeat may have better results in the long term than an unequivocal battlefield victory.

12 thoughts on “The AFOE Plan

  1. If Middle Eastern cease fires actually solved anything, then the ME would be the most peaceful place on the planet, no? How many cease fires have been brokered over the years?

    What AFOE doesn’t want to recognize is that this won’t be solved by cease fires or diplomacy. You can’t negotiate with fanatics. Well, you can, but only on their terms. What about Gaza? What happens when some dumbshit religious fanatic fires a missile into Israel from Gaza, Israel retaliates, and then we are back to square one?

    I didn’t read your ‘eerie’ prediction, because it was probably anything but. Rest assured, you won’t post a ‘well, we were wrong’ post when the whole thing falls apart, or you will do as the rest of Europe does, and blame Israel.

    There is only one solution. Popular wisdom says, Ehud’s out, Natanyahu’s in. Natanyahu wants to crush skulls. Whether or not he can, is debatable. But it will happen eventually, it’s just that the longer it’s delayed, the more damage is going to be done.

  2. No. It’s nice for the soul of the man on the street, but for Syria as such it’s worthless.

  3. I just put anything in the URL. I really don’t know what the point of it is, other than to link to the posters blog perhaps?

    Since I don’t have one, I simply put whatever, usually cnn.com

    I am under the assumption AFFOE won’t let me post unless I fill out all the fields.

  4. The threat isn’t removed. This is just a delay, nothing more.

    Regarding the Yom Kippur War it is not correct to call it simply a draw. It is true that it led to no territorial changes. But the Arab armies achieved surprise, had been equipped as well as could be expected and Israel was embargoed by Europe. These were the best conditions that could be expected. Yet the Arab armies were defeated and Egypt faced tremendous losses.

    That war made clear that Israel could not be defeated on the battle field.

  5. At the time the peace agreement was brokered I thought this could be a lasting working agreement but since that time the French have reneged on their promise of “Leadership” and troops while at the same time Iran and Syria have started rearming Hezbollah. Now all we have is a momentary pause before the resumption of hostilities.

  6. Europe has yet another opportunity to demonstrate its inability. If Europe wishes to concentrate on soft power, we must accept the limits of that kind of power.

  7. Meet the new “Holy Land” same as the old “Holy Land”. Does anyone really doubt that the real “Holocaust” will originate from there? Even a minor nuclear exchange will make the bloodbath of the 20th century look like a warm-up.