My preocupations about the impact of demographic change on German society are already pretty well known. Well if Germany as a whole has a sizeable problem, the former East German Lande have a huge one. The state-owned KfW development bank project in a report out today (German only unfortunately, an English version of the press release is here) that the while the population of the old West Germany will drop by six percent between 2002 and 2050, that of the six eastern states will decline by a whopping 25%. Not to mention the fact that those who remain are likely to be even older on average than their Western counterparts. As a consequence the available workforce is likely to fall by a staggering 55%.
The issues raised by this research are large and important. Is, for example, East Germany now in irreversible decline? Can this process repeat itself elsewhere (including between rather than within nation states) as younger, more highly skilled and more mobile workers leave ageing and relatively more depressed areas etc?
The issue of migration from East to West Germany been receiving attention for some time now. Frank Heiland in a survey “Trends in East-West German Migration from 1989 to 2002” (follow the link and go to Volume 11 article 7) argues that there have been two waves of East-West migration The first one, 1989-1990, was triggered by the opportunities and uncertainties before the Reunification; the second one, since 1997, coincides with economic stagnation in the East and improving job prospects in the West.