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Tag Archives: current account

Whoops!

Posted on October 20, 2006 by Alex Harrowell

Hungary, as readers of this blog well know, is struggling with a large budget deficit and a terrible balance of payments problem, which has led to a certain amount of trouble. Specifically the fighting in the streets kind. Now, the Socialist government of Ferenc Gyurcsyany came up with a simple plan to cut the deficit from 10.1 per cent of GDP to something more reasonable.

Essentially, he decided to tax the rich until the pips squeaked. More accurately, he decided to tax industry until the pips squeaked, introducing a new 4 per cent “solidarity tax” on company profits. During the Chinese civil war, one of the more depraved warlords used to levy a “Happy Tax” on the unfortunates who lived in his territory – the taxpayer was meant to pay up and be happy. Presumably Hungarian businessmen are expected to do something similar.

The first results don’t look good. In fact they look disastrous. Volkswagen-Audi has reacted to this by cancelling €1 billion worth of investment at its plant in Gyor, which produces 20,000 Audi TT sports cars a year. The Gyor plant is Hungary’s biggest exporter, all on its own. VW had been planning to double its output. It is fair to say that essentially all the extra cars would be exported.

Doh! On one level, I suppose I should be sympathetic to the Hungarians because they are being pushed around by an arrogant German multinational. On another, though, you can’t deny that this is a really incredibly stupid policy. Hungary’s biggest economic success has been its fast-growing export manufacturing sector, concentrated around Gyor. And it’s only that sector that is making an impact on the current account deficit. After all, if you don’t increase exports, the only way you can reduce a current account deficit is to reduce imports, which means reducing the standard of living…

Posted in A Fistful Of Euros, Economics and demography, Economics: Currencies, Germany, Governments and parties | Tagged current account, current account deficit, deficit, Economics and demography, Economics: Currencies, Germany, Governments and parties, Hungary

Time To Cut Trichet Some Slack?

Posted on December 8, 2005 by Edward Hugh

Am I being a little harsh with Jean Claude-Trichet? Perhaps, it is a hard (if not impossible) job he has on his hands. And in this post I did try hard to think about credible arguments in favour of the recent rate rise.

New arrival on the European economics blogging scene Claus Vistesen argues that the issue is about the bank gaining credibility, and that meantime we should cut Trichet some slack (in doing so, of course, he follows in the footsteps of the Economist).

But the main point Claus picks up on is this
:

“Managing the financial condition of…..very diverse countries is not an easy task and trade-offs are bound to show their ugly face. The real dilemma as also reported by the Economist is that growth rates are very different across the eurozone … what to do?”

What to do, exactly? On the degree of diversity within the eurozone (which I think now is much clearer, and clearly much more resilient, than people imagined at the outset of EMU), this presentation by Paul de Grauwe is illuminating.

As the principal negative surprises de Grauwe lists:

1/. The low level of synchronisation of the business cycle. Some countries regularly boom while others are in recession. (He calls this vulnerability to asymmetric shocks).

2/. Significant differences in trend growth rates.

3/ Continuing widespread price dispersion in consumer products.

4/. Continuing structural rigidities which may be re-inforced by the availability of a general low interest rate environment regardless of progress on reform.

To these I would add:

!/. Strong variance in underlying demographic realities

2/. Lack of uniformity in the monetary transmission mechanism, which means that it is difficult to apply the ‘one size fits all’ policy as responses to changes in monetary policy show strong variance.

I could also add one more. The structural position of the euro in any dollar unwind story. New Economist directs us to a paper by Alan Ahearne and Jürgen von Hagen which argues, among other things that:

“The US current account deficit must narrow eventually and this process will almost certainly involve a significant depreciation in the dollar. The more stubbornly Asian countries refuse to adjust their exchange rates and current account surpluses, the larger will be the appreciation of the euro and the resulting deterioration in the euro area’s current account balance. The sharper the adjustment and the larger the share of this adjustment that falls on Europe, the greater the risk of deflationary pressures and a severe recession in the euro area.”

If this scenario – the significant depreciation of the dollar one – should occur, then they are right about the consequences: this would almost certainly push Germany and some other eurozone economies (eg Finland) into outright deflation. I am not sure, however, that this is the way events will unfold. More likely, I feel, is an unravelling of the government debt situation in Italy, which would cause chaos in the eurobond markets generally, and by a process of ‘contamination’ would certainly make itself felt in the US one. After that it’s anyone’s guess what happens next.

So with that comforting thought I leave you, except to say – one more time – welcome to euro-econblogging Claus.

Posted in A Few Euros More, Euro | Tagged countries, current account, Dollar, economist, Euro, eurozone, the euro

Oooh, I like this one

Posted on July 20, 2005 by Edward Hugh

I argued recently that John Snow should check out some economics before arguing that structural reforms in Europe and Japan would resolve the problem of global economic trade imbalances. Well……….

I was thumbing through the economics working papers section of the OECD yesterday, and I found this:
Continue reading →

Posted in A Fistful Of Euros, Economics and demography | Tagged countries, current account, current account positions, Economics and demography, growth, markets, reforms, structural

Too Much Money Chasing Too Many Goods?

Posted on July 20, 2005 by Edward Hugh

Business week has just popularised what was previously a minority sport: debating the ‘global savings glut’ issue. Steven Roach has already responded. Really with all this high-powered economics going on, I feel sorry for the ‘layman’, since it must be kind of hard to reach a conclusion about whether or not to buy a house, or whether to take a summer break or wipe the credit card debt instead.

The issues are pretty complex, but I think can be broken down into two main issues.
Continue reading →

Posted in A Fistful Of Euros, Economics and demography | Tagged Business, conference, current account, current account surplus, Economics and demography, Germany, manufacturing, productivity, surplus, USA

Out of Balance

Posted on July 20, 2005 by Edward Hugh

The expression ‘global imbalances’ has become somewhat fashionable of late. But what exactly are these imbalances, and why are they important. The IMF in its most recent World Economic Outlook draws attention to two of them:

The (current) expansion has become less balanced. Growth has been stronger than expected in the United States, where the ?soft spot? proved more moderate than previously thought; in China, where activity remains buoyant despite tightening measures; and in most emerging market and developing countries. In contrast, growth in Europe and Japan has been disappointing, reflecting?to different extents? faltering exports and weak final domestic demand.

Global current account imbalances have widened. The U.S. current account deficit is estimated at a record 5.7 percent of GDP in 2004, with the effects of the depreciation of the U.S. dollar to date offset by continued strong domestic
demand relative to its trading partners and higher oil prices. This is matched by current account surpluses in emerging Asia, Japan, the oil-producing countries in the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and?to a much lesser extent? the euro area.

Well here we have two of the more obvious of those famed ‘imbalances’ – imbalances in growth and in trade accounts – but are there more of them?

Posted in A Fistful Of Euros, Europe and the world | Tagged current account, Europe and the world, growth, imbalances

Italy: Aging But Saving?

Posted on June 7, 2005 by Edward Hugh

This is a very convenient moment to put up this post. Alan Greenspan has just admitted that he’s human like the rest of us, and that he doesn’t have a very good explanation for why long-term interest rates have been falling at a time when he and his Fed colleagues have been busy raising short-term rates. I think he’s being a bit coy here, since I’m sure he has some idea. Among other things he will be well aware of the contents of a speech made recently by Ben Bernanke, a US economist who is considered high on the list of possible Greenspan successors.

What Bernanke said in the speech ( The Global Savings Glut ) was this:

“Iwill argue that over the past decade a combination of diverse forces has created a significant increase in the global supply of saving–a global saving glut–which helps to explain both the increase in the U.S. current account deficit and the relatively low level of long-term real interest rates in the world today. The prospect of dramatic increases in the ratio of retirees to workers in a number of major industrial economies is one important reason for the high level of global saving.”
Continue reading →

Posted in A Fistful Of Euros, Economics and demography | Tagged Ben Bernanke, current account, current account deficit, deficit, demographic change, domestic investment, Economics and demography, economies, financial wealth, greenspan, growth, household, household savings, households, interest, interest rates, investment, italian household savings, Italy, long term interest, net financial wealth, new economic paradigm, population, savings, society, structure, term interest rates, wealth

The Euro And The Vote

Posted on May 21, 2005 by Edward Hugh

The euro reached its lowest level against the dollar in seven months last week dropping from a valueof $1.311 a month ago to $1.255 on Friday. This was the lowest level since last October. Undoubtedly there are a confluence of factors at work here: yesterday’s French growth numbers, longer term stagnant growth in Germany and Italy, Sunday’s elections in the Federal Republic, the up and coming referendum in France, rumourology about forthcoming ECB rate cuts etc.

This downward pressure will in reality be welcomed in many quarters, since it could give some useful relief to hard pressed exporters, and it may help those (eg Spain) with serious balance of payments problems by offering some kind of corrective impetus.

But all of this only draws attention to one underlying fundamental of the situation: there has never been a ‘strong euro story’, it has always been a ‘weak dollar’ one. And it is here that things get really complicated, since it begs the question of whether the US is able and ready to live once more with a ‘strong dollar’, and if it isn’t then this immediately poses the question as to what exactly the repercussions will be?
Continue reading →

Posted in A Fistful Of Euros, Economics: Currencies | Tagged currency, current account, current account deficit, deficit, Dollar, ECB, Economics: Currencies, europe, European Central Bank, France, Germany, growth, inflation, interest, interest rates, market, policy, problem, recognised, reduction, the euro, the fed, the federal reserve

Some kind of collision

Posted on November 3, 2004 by David Weman

Excerpt from Kevin Drum’s 2003 interview with Paul Krugman.

Train wreck is a way overused metaphor, but we’re headed for some kind of collision, and there are three things that can happen. Just by the arithmetic, you can either have big tax increases, roll back the whole Bush program plus some; or you can sharply cut Medicare and Social Security, because that’s where the money is; or the U.S. just tootles along until we actually have a financial crisis where the marginal buyer of U.S. treasury bills, which is actually the Reserve Bank of China, says, we don’t trust these guys anymore ? and we turn into Argentina. All three of those are clearly impossible, and yet one of them has to happen, so, your choice. Which one?

Well, how about your choice? What’s your best guess?

I think financial crisis, and then how it falls out is 50-50, either New New Deal or back to McKinley, and I think it’s anybody’s guess which one of those it is. It’s crazy stuff, but think about where I am on this. My take on the numbers is no different from Brad DeLong’s, it’s no different from CBO’s now, and we all look at this and we all see this curve that marches steadily upwards and then heads for the sky after the baby boomers start retiring. I don’t know what Brad thinks, I think he’s open-minded [actually, it turns out he’s optimistic that voters will eventually come to their senses and raise taxes on the rich. ?ed.], but the general view is: yes, but this is America, it can’t happen, so something will come up. And I’m just willing to say I don’t see any noncatastrophic solution to this, I don’t see an incremental stepwise resolution. I think something drastic is really going to happen.

How does all this feed in to the current account deficit? Will China keep financing that forever?

They’re financing both the current account deficit, and, as it turns out, directly financing the government deficit. We were running a big current account deficit that accelerated through the late 90s, but there you could say that it was due to the strength of the U.S. economy, it was all this investment demand, technological revolution, and after all, the government was in surplus.

Now, we’re back in twin deficits territory, and there are two related issues, the solvency of the federal government and the solvency of the United States per se, and both of them are now somewhat in question.

Maybe I’m a captive of my own model, but I think that what happens when the world loses faith in the U.S. as a place to invest is that the dollar plunges, but that in itself is not so bad because the lucky thing is our foreign debts are in dollars, so we don’t do an Indonesia or an Argentina. But the federal government’s solvency is a much more critical thing because it needs to keep on borrowing more and more just to pay its bills.

What happens if these foreign countries do stop buying U.S. bonds? Is this a real concern, or a tinfoil hat kind of thing?

Oh, I don’t think China is going to do it to pressure us. You can just barely conceive of a situation where they’re mad at us because we’re keeping them from invading Taiwan or something, but more likely they just start to wonder if this is really a good place to be putting their money.

So what happens is a plunge in the dollar when they decide to stop buying and start cashing in, and a spike in U.S. interest rates. But you might also get in a situation where the interest rates the government has to pay to roll over its debt become so high that you get an accelerating problem, which is what happened in Argentina. What happened was that suddenly no one would buy Argentine debt unless they paid a twenty something percent interest rate, and everybody says, but if they have to roll over their debt at a twenty percent interest rate, there’s no way they can pay that back. So the whole thing grinds to a halt and the cash flow just dries up.

And do you think that’s a serious possibility for the United States?

Yeah, just take the numbers as they now look, and that’s where it heads. And you might say, OK, we can easily handle it. U.S. taxes are 26 percent of GDP in the U.S., in Canada they’re 38 percent of GDP. If you raise U.S. taxes to Canadian levels there’s plenty of money to cope with all of this. But politically we’ve got a deadlock, and it’s hard to imagine that happening.

So you say, but this can’t happen, this is America, and I guess my answer is, is it? Is this the same country that we had in 1970? I think we have a much more polarized political system, a much more polarized social climate. We certainly aren’t the country of Franklin Roosevelt, and we’re probably not the country of Richard Nixon either, so I think we have to take seriously the possibility that things won’t work out this time.

Posted in A Fistful Of Euros, Europe and the world, Not Europe | Tagged account deficit, argentina, countries, current account, current account deficit, deficit, Europe and the world, federal government, government, interest, Not Europe, solvency, the government, USA

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