Over to You, Mr Brown

Remember when Labour couldn’t win an election and the UK’s Conservatives made much of their reputation as “the natural party of Government”? Remember when all that changed? Eppur si muove.

Daniel Davies got the timing almost exactly right when his model showed that the greatest gap between the incentive for MPs to keep Blair and to push him out in favor of Brown would be in July 2007. For the record, DD made the prediction in April 2006. You’ll have to ask him whether he jiggered the model to max the value close to the ten-year anniversary. Economists can be that way sometimes. (Josh Marshall asked today whether there’s a similar time frame for Republicans to abandon Bush over Iraq. Maybe DD could gin up a new model? Or maybe another economist will?)

The BBC, as one would expect, are all over the changeover story. Links by the metric boatload at that page.

Now, none of the governments in the EU’s three largest countries is more than two years old. It’s a new era.