http://www.nbr.org/publications/element.aspx?id=446

Well, this should be interesting.

It’s not, really. You do know, of course, Zigfeld’s… sorry, “La Russophobe’s” track record, right? This is the same intellectual who delights in calling Russia “a nation of whores”.

A gentle reminder: moderated forum. Play nice.

Considering LR’s modus operandi, I’d suggest gagging the idiot with a permanent IP-ban. The lady already has a propaganda forum of her own; why give her another one?

FWIW, I’m making this simply as a humble suggestion, as a complete outsider. Assuming that it matters, I’ve also written a couple of published articles criticizing the policies of our eastern neighbour (one of them in the link embedded in my name), and I’ve got paid for it.

Cheers,

J. J.

Actually, there have been a lot of cases where rising national wealth was clearly correlated with higher emigration.

I don’t think any of them are relevant to early 21st century Russia, but it’s definitely a thing that can happen.

Doug M.

Pts. 1, 3, and 4 are all essentially truthiness fallacies (as well as many others), and as such undeserving of a proper response.

In satire, truthiness is a “truth” that a person claims to know intuitively “from the gut” without regard to evidence, logic, intellectual examination, or facts.

The only directly refutable “argument” is pt.2; a look at the statistics will show that in 2009, the ratio of deaths to births was 1.1:1, which does not support the contention that “Russia still has FAR more people perishing than being born”.

@johnallen,

Oligarchs are a social and economic problem, not a demographic one.

@Me,

I do not know of any cases where rising national wealth caused higher emigration.

Have you found a discrepancy in the vital statistics published by RosStat? I thought not. Have you a better source of vital statistics than RosStat? I thought not. Yet again, you are all mouth and no facts.

Natural population decrease in Russia is the smallest it has been in about 15 years, and is only a little more than a quarter of what it was ten years ago. There are prospects for natural increase in Russia soon. This is a signal accomplishment, though it is gall and wormwood for you given your oft-expressed contempt for Russians. No wonder you seek refuge in denial.

Immigration to Russia is substantial, and has been for several years. You may want to reconsider your unsupported blanket statement that “Russians hate foreigners.” You won’t of course. That “all mouth and no facts” thing of yours rears its ugly head again.

The social policy undertaken by the Kremlin has been to break the political power of the Oligarchs and force them to submit to the State taxing the energy price windfall out of their hands. One of the things the Russian government has done with the money has been to fund public health measures and the healthcare system. As a result, life expectancy has been rising.

As to the health of Russians, Gorbachev set a national example of sobriety, and that had an impact. While he was President, Putin set a national example of sobriety and athleticism. He continues to do so as Prime Minister, and that has an impact.

You know, someone could find out a lot about Russia by assuming that the opposite of what you say is the case.

A gentle reminder: moderated forum. Play nice.

Doug M.

First, such an analysis would be relying on data generated by the Russian Kremlin, which is ruled by a proud KGB spy, a trained liar. It would imply that if things were getting worse, he wouldn’t lie. That’s just plain silly.

Second, it would overlook the fact that Russia still has FAR more people perishing than being born because life in Russia remains horrifically dangerous.

Third, immigration can in no way solve any Russian problem because Russians hate foreigners. Dozens and dozens of blacks are butchered every year just for being black.

And fourth, the ONLY people arguing that Russia is having a demographic rebound are rabid, pro-Putin fanatics like Mr. Karlin (whose bias ought to have been better disclosed by you). ALL the real scientists, starting with Murray Feshbach, know that there is no magic bullet which will turn Russia’s situation around and no serious social policy at all has been undertaken by the Kremlin.

The fact is, the Putin Kremlin likes Russia sick and weak. True, it makes it harder for Russia to dominate the globe. But it makes it much, much easier for Putin to maintain his power. Strong healthy people would be much more likely to join a protest movement and embrace democratic values, the last thing in the world Putin wants. It’s so much easier to lie and repress, the tactics Putin learned throughout his life.

I knew France had a very early fertility transition and that its population was stagnant in the first half of the 20th century, but no, I wasn’t aware of that remarkable projection in particular. It demonstrates the fallacy of linear extrapolation very well. Could you please provide a link or citation? (I’d be very glad to have it for future debates).

You’re familiar with the League of Nations population projection from the late 1920s that expected the French population to fall to some 28 million by 1980?

We can narrow down projections, sure, but past a certain point–in time or in precision–it’s a bit ludicrous.