In part this vote may be decided by differing participation rates across the regions. It is clear that in some Departments the participation rates are very high. I just heard a reporter in Picardy. Apparently the anti-Maastricht (remember even the Maastricht vote was only a ‘petit oui’) sentiment was high in Picardy. Today they have a high participation. It is such factors, local and regional ones like this, which may in the end decide the vote. Strange to think that the future of Europe may be in the hands of a number of voters ‘on the margin’ over in Piccardy, and similar.
Update One: An estimate for Radio France by CSA suggest a participation as high as 82.5%. One thing is sure, the big news about this referendum, apart from the result that is, will be the participation. No-one can say this isn’t representative. Meantime the metro stations around the Chanmps Elysee have been closed – the police fear spontaneous demonstrations (of joy presumeably). The left have called for a celebratory ‘fevstival’ in the Place de la Bastille at 22:00.
BTW: it is now 20:00. All stations outside Paris and Lyon are now closed.
Update 2: The CSA has now backed off a bit, and the participation will be something in the 70’s %.