From UK Chancellor of Exchequer George Osborne’s opening statement at the joint news conference with the IMF yesterday, Mme Lagarde in attendance, to conclude the IMF assessment of the UK economy -
Yes, there are still risks. The IMF have identified the risks, and they are the same risks we’ve identified and are taking action to prevent. I take this as an endorsement of our plan to fix the roof while the sun is shining.
The table above is from the IMF’s July 2008 assessment of the UK economy. Bear in mind that the first tremors of the global financial crisis had happened nearly a year earlier. The debt and deficit are now over twice as high as these numbers. The IMF team of course doesn’t have much choice but to sit there politely when Osborne uses his 7 year old political slogan about fixing the roof etc. But by the IMF’s own standards, the roof was in good shape in summer 2008. The pile of rubble fell afterwards.