Comments on: Municipal and provincial elections in Belgium

By: Guy

Guy — Wed, 11 Oct 2006 03:11:44 +0000

Eulogist, I found some more figures for you, on the comparison between 2004-2006:

http://www.gva.be/nieuws/Politiek/default.asp?art={E1AE104C-BAFF-4A3E-846C-1DFC2F908E93}

In all 80,000 Flemish voters turned their backs on VB, or 8,5% of their electorate. That figure of 80,000 is now making headlines

By: Guy

Guy — Wed, 11 Oct 2006 02:34:08 +0000

eulogist: LS&P makes a comparison with the 2004 “federal” elections instead of comparing the results with the 2000 municipal elections. Federal or regional elections have different dynamics. This year VB advanced in all the provinces.

Analyzing polling results is very difficult, so you may be right after all, I do not know. But you have to look at the circumstances as well as the figures. One big scandal before an election can cause significant shifts, for instance. Or not, as in Wallony this year.

So, compared to 2000 VB definitely advanced. Compared to 2004, in other elections, it did not advance, but how significant is this? We’ll just have to wait and see.

By: eulogist

eulogist — Tue, 10 Oct 2006 04:57:45 +0000

Hmm, actually I do not agree with Guy that VB’s rise is not stemmed (at least for the time being).

See Lies, statistics and preconceptions.

By: Marc

Marc — Tue, 10 Oct 2006 03:09:09 +0000

Thanks so much! was directed here from EU Referendum. Couldn’t get Le Soir’s election thingeys to work properly on my computer last night.

By: Guy

Guy — Mon, 09 Oct 2006 21:40:14 +0000

No sweat

By: Bondwoman

Bondwoman — Mon, 09 Oct 2006 19:23:51 +0000

Thanks, Guy. Sorry, was a shameful piece of blegging.

By: Guy

Guy — Mon, 09 Oct 2006 18:27:32 +0000

Bondwoman, I have to go out in a minute, but here is a start, registered immigrants:

http://www.contact.rrn.fgov.be/nl/statelc/elec.php

and here:

http://www.contact.rrn.fgov.be/nl/statelc/nat.php?lev=1&ins=1&rg=1

By: Guy

Guy — Mon, 09 Oct 2006 17:38:38 +0000

Bondwoman, I am not sure if we’ll get figures on these but if I find something I’ll let you know.

By: Bondwoman

Bondwoman — Mon, 09 Oct 2006 17:27:09 +0000

I thought it was predicted by VLD figures back in the early 2000s that giving the vote to third country nationals would push Flemish voters more and more into the arms of the VB. You suggest that the immigrant vote may have held up the rise of the VB. It’s going to be hard to prove one way or the other. Will figures be released on who voted for whom, in terms of ethnic or national background? And do you know where I can find out the final figures on the numbers of third country nationals who actually registered to vote? Ta.