Comments on: Italian Elections

By: Oliver

Oliver — Tue, 11 Apr 2006 10:04:54 +0000

Pretty obvious that he’ll bring troops out or interfere with the count.

Please. You are talking about a nasty man. He’ll use lawyers.

By: marco

marco — Tue, 11 Apr 2006 04:59:06 +0000

Emmanuel, UDC (and Udeur, a tiny party of the center-left) would be the perfect candidate(s) for such a job.
Having said that, differences are so small that *no option can be ruled out yet* in terms of who will have the majority in the two houses.
At this moment, it *can* end up with 2-0 for either of the wings, but also 1-1.
What is sure IMO is that the government (any government) will have a very hard life.

By: Emmanuel

Emmanuel — Tue, 11 Apr 2006 04:51:11 +0000

Marco : “they can even decide to try a completely new set-up where the Prime Minister is neither Prodi nor Berlusconi.”

Yeah, I was thinking about something like that. Could a center party like the UDC try to play kingmaker in case the houses are divided?

I must also add that I was wrong to say that a Unione victory in the Camera looks “more and more likely”. I thought the latest numbers were forecasts. In fact, they are partial results. Still seems too close to call, then, maybe with a slight advantage to Berlusconi.

By: marco

marco — Tue, 11 Apr 2006 04:36:19 +0000

Yes, the government has to be approved by both houses.
New elections are possible, but bear in mind that the MPs do not have any formal constrain to stick to their wing. As a consequence, MPs migth be convinced to move from right to left (or the other way around), or they can even decide to try a completely new set-up where the Prime Minister is neither Prodi nor Berlusconi.
To make a long story short, the situation can unfortunately end up with a complete mess.
I voted for center-left, but I’d rather prefer a (close) win by the center-right than a complete halt of the Italian politics (that would be the effect of a ‘draw’)

By: Emmanuel

Emmanuel — Tue, 11 Apr 2006 04:07:52 +0000

If I read my Italian constitution correctly, the government has to be approved by both houses. What happens if, as seems more and more likely, Berlusconi wins the Senate and Prodi the House? Are we going to have another election in a few months?

By: Alex

Alex — Tue, 11 Apr 2006 03:44:47 +0000

Looking like the worst-case scenario now: both houses within +-1% or less. Pretty obvious that he’ll bring troops out or interfere with the count.

By: marco

marco — Tue, 11 Apr 2006 03:20:04 +0000

Update 23:20
Senate: Berlusconi seems ahead by 7 senators (158-151)
Camera: *very* close call (.1% difference) Please note that for the Camera there is a ‘majority prize’ mechanism, i.e. by getting even one vote more than the opponent one gets a significantly different number of MPs.
As a consequence, we have to wait ’till the end.

By: Bob B

Bob B — Tue, 11 Apr 2006 02:50:07 +0000

The latest report from the BBC says Berlusconi is ahead:

“Italy’s general election is turning into an extremely close race, with early results pointing to a slender lead for PM Silvio Berlusconi.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4894584.stm

If so, Tony Blair will be much relieved according to this in The Independent:

“If Mr Berlusconi, Tony Blair’s closest European ally, goes down, then a large metal door could also be clanging behind his erstwhile associate, David Mills, estranged husband of the Culture Secretary, Tessa Jowell. The pair are accused of conspiring to obstruct the course of justice at a trial which has its first hearing next month.”
http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/article356694.ece

By: CapTVK

CapTVK — Tue, 11 Apr 2006 02:26:39 +0000

Berlusconi seems ahead in the race for the senate now. Lower house is still for the centre-left but it is going to be close. Wasn´t there a discussion about a new election if there was no clear winner?

Once again an important lessons why one shouldn´t put too much faith in polls, the reason: “polls don´t vote, people do”.

By: Edward

Edward — Tue, 11 Apr 2006 01:22:10 +0000

Thanks for this Marco, it’s still far from clear. AFP have just run this (21:00):

First partial results announced in the early evening, based on one-sixth of the vote for the lower house Chamber of Deputies, gave 54.2 percent to Prodi’s centre-left and 45.2 percent to Berlusconi’s House of Freedoms. The race for the Senate seemed much closer however, with the centre-left holding a wafer-thin majority, again according to partial results based on around half the vote. It showed Prodi’s bloc with 158 seats and Berlusconi’s with 151 in the 315-seat upper house. However, the results did not include the six Senate seats reserved for representatives of some three million Italians living abroad, who were able to vote in a general election for the first time. Neither coalition would be able to govern without a majority in both houses.

I guess we still have to watchg and wait.