Yes but I think the point is terry these are a revision upwards on that projection based on France’s own statistical agency (Ined) findings. Causes, longer life expectancy, and some recovery in fertility.

In testing nukes, not going to Iraq, loosing the referendum?

Edward, Iran

The key issue is of course, as Thierry Breton noted, to lengthen the working life.

“does NOT come especially from the immigrant population,”

France has long (a couple of centuries of long) had a demography which is different from everyone else. Since the reduction in fertility has been long and slow there are less ‘boom/bust’ elements.

Those countries most at risk of this latter type of ‘blowout’ structurally are those who make the transition from relatively high fertility (circa 3) to all time lows (circa 1.2) in a reproductive generation or less: Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, S Korea. My fear is that this will become the pattern among the newly developing countries. Near to home, Turkey may well become a case in point.

Do they still remove heads at Place de la Concorde?

That growth does NOT come especially from the immigrant population, whose birth rates is very similar to that of the “native” French, adjusted for age.

Mortality is incredibly low. the 2003 heat wave surplus of deaths translated in a measurable drop in 2004; life expectancy has kept on increasing fast.

Yes, but I think they may be about to try and change that. Have a real immigration policy. I don’t know, it is too early yet to say. I think the govt is convinced, but maybe the voters aren’t, and everyone, of course, is worried about Le Pen.

In 2004 (the % i’ve done in my head so don’t shoot me if they’re a bit out)

France + 305k in total, with 54k, or about 15% from immigration
Germany -36k, with 78k from immigration.
Italy +497k, with 523k, or 105% from immigration(!)
UK +297k, with 115k, or about 40% from immigration.

Freddy, if you want to look into it, Herv? Le Bras has an interesting book – Essai de Geometrie Sociale – which is quite informative on many demographically related social topics, including what might be termed the folk mythology associated with the idea of “la souche francaise”.

http://www.fnac.com/856286/rcwwwa/Essai-de-geometrie-sociale-Herve-Le-Bras.html

Le Bras was I think the demographer at the UN responsible for the ‘replacement migration as a response to ageing’ conference.

This view – that immigration is at least part of the answer to ageing – seems reflected in today’s speech by new Finance Minister Thierry Breton:

In his first policy speech he said:

“French people had to “work more, throughout their lives” in order to create growth, he said. France had to make an effort to achieve growth of more than 3.0 percent at least,” but was not yet there.

The number of people aged 15 to 60 who were available for work would begin to fall for the first time ever. But growth in an economy based on services depended on an increase in the number of people in work. This was why the government was reflecting on the type of immigration that was needed”.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20050621/ts_afp/franceeconomygrowthforecast/nc:732;_ylt=AgBhUwO8TRZ_eSFpTW5H5s10bBAF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

Randy McDonald had a post last month on the French demogrphic projections:

http://www.livejournal.com/users/rfmcdpei/708963.html