Over to You, Mr Brown

Remember when Labour couldn’t win an election and the UK’s Conservatives made much of their reputation as “the natural party of Government”? Remember when all that changed? Eppur si muove.

Daniel Davies got the timing almost exactly right when his model showed that the greatest gap between the incentive for MPs to keep Blair and to push him out in favor of Brown would be in July 2007. For the record, DD made the prediction in April 2006. You’ll have to ask him whether he jiggered the model to max the value close to the ten-year anniversary. Economists can be that way sometimes. (Josh Marshall asked today whether there’s a similar time frame for Republicans to abandon Bush over Iraq. Maybe DD could gin up a new model? Or maybe another economist will?)

The BBC, as one would expect, are all over the changeover story. Links by the metric boatload at that page.

Now, none of the governments in the EU’s three largest countries is more than two years old. It’s a new era.

This entry was posted in A Fistful Of Euros, Europe and the world, History, Political issues and tagged , by Doug Merrill. Bookmark the permalink.

About Doug Merrill

Freelance journalist based in Tbilisi, following stints in Atlanta, Budapest, Munich, Warsaw and Washington. Worked for a German think tank, discovered it was incompatible with repaying US student loans. Spent two years in financial markets. Bicycled from Vilnius to Tallinn. Climbed highest mountains in two Alpine countries (the easy ones, though). American center-left, with strong yellow dog tendencies. Arrived in the Caucasus two weeks before its latest war.

3 thoughts on “Over to You, Mr Brown

  1. Doug,

    I am not certain you can consider the Brown government as a novel government, maybe fresh faced government would be a more appropriate term.

    Gordon Brown has been at the heart of the Blair government for the last 10 years and although the approach might be “fresh” and maybe different the policies will be much the same. Sure, Brown will do everything possible to make an impression that things are changing, changing, changing but even under Tony Blair things were always changing, chaning, changing — they don’t call it the New Labour the party of new ideas for no reason.

    Anyhow, I look forward to the day when Gordon Brown as the Prime Minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will recognise Kosovo as a free and independent state. Kostunica was barking mad this morning with an attack on America, but I think David Miliband will be good for the Kosovars and that there will be “no change” as far as the British policies towards the Balkans are concerned.

    Yours,

    Filan Fisteku

  2. My god I did! I haven’t been boasting about this nearly enough! Thanks Doug!

  3. DD, if you put together a model that tells when the Republicans start voting against GWB, I’ll have to see about getting you a very big pie indeed. (I probably won’t be able to do anything about shorter hours, though.)

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