12 thoughts on “Open thread

  1. It’s kind of partly sunny, partly cloudy here in Swindon. Storm Radio is playing Boulevard of Broken Dreams by Green Day. I just ate a banana. An empty bottle of Pilsner Urquell is still standing on the desk from yesterday.

    Not that you care, but someone has to start the talking.

    How’s your morning so far?

  2. I noticed that someone mocked someone else yesterday for being on a BLOG at 3:28 A.M. or some time thereabouts…. well it is 04:58 here in Jacksonvile and the Super Bowl is in town today and here I am! I have no excuse: unless you call going for a washroom break and heading back to bed an excuse … which it is not at all. Usually I am most creative when I first wake up, but am drawing nothing but blanks here. Once knew a guy named Doug back in Canada who said he was most creative at the urinal: Sure enough, he named our mixed/work baseball team on a urinal break ..the SEXPOS (Montreal was a city nearby and we all took a train/hotel and went to a game there, though we were entirely messed up by the time we left the hotel and arrived at Olympic stadium, and I can’t tell you anything about the game or its participants other than the Montreal EXPOS surely played) …SEXPOS was entirely appropriate given 1. the make-up of our team (our girls were spectacular and did not belong with us at all- my recruiting 2. I am ashamed to describe the nature and appropriateness of the name EXPOS with regard to our customary Friday watering haunt/bar. 3. It was the name of our professional team. Doug gained credibility for his source of inspiration …and I have lost all credibility right here and now, for my claimed source.

    By the way, EXPOS comes from the 1967 World’s Fair in Montreal and relates to the word Exposition. EXPOS sounds like the word Expose with a different accent….just now I realize that the name SEXPOS, given our old haunt and team makeup, was even more apt. Way to go Doug, and sorry to y’all, I better get some sleep, big party day here in the south.

  3. It’s fasching weekend here in Bavaria. Think Rio carnaval @ -7 C. Glorious sunshine though.

    From today’s papers:

    Bill Clinton to succeed Kofi Annan?
    My take – no chance!

    NPD claim the bombing of Dresden was as bad as holocaust?
    My take – too easy to dismiss as the rantings of a bunch of neo-nazis. However, its still time to move on.

    Germany becoming more relaxed about Iraq?
    My take – good! Its reality.

    Europe’s work in Iran being trashed by US insistence on security council involvement too early? (Kharrazi’s opinion in Davos via IHT)
    My take – it is in his interest to present things so; however, it would be very useful if the US and Europe find common ground before any UN involvement.

    Other thoughts…

  4. Bill Clinton: I think it would be good for the UN if the Democrats were in power in the US … not sure how his being head of the UN would play out in the USA with the Republicans in power… if Clinton was perceived as being likely to reduce the number of rogue military operations by the US , his ‘Fat Chance’ might rise to being “His Call”. Likely, it would be perceived as an opportunity for the US to have its way in the UN.

    I think Hiroshima and Nagasaki along with Dresden could be likened to a triumverate of Nazi camps; but then you get into war, and the fact that theses cities were in the countries that invaded relative innocents such as Poland, China, Czechoslavakia, Norway, Belgium, Holland, Phillipines ….. and even though Pearl Harbor, and the destruction of France might be deemed pre-emption … the other wars were plain barbarous … indeed, Hitler would surely have done to London earlier, what was done to Dresden later, if he could have.

    Yes, it would be very useful, for the Iraqi’s, Europe and the USA. The USA could really use the help, though BUSH has a lot of backers who want to keep this mess for their Texan business interests to clean up, at the expense of american troops and taxpayers. However, if Europe (France and Germany) were to step up with meaningful troop support, or other very meaningful support, and help reduce the insurgency and pave the way for decent government of the people in Iraq and perhaps beyond Iraq’s borders (and incidently, make Turkey a lot happier), I am sure the USA would instantly allow them to join the “occupation” before the UN rejoins, thereby jumping the queue and gaining the nice business deals and political inroads they so badly want, and the Iraqi’s would be only to glad to have more trading partners, even though intelligent ones might resent the late arrival of the Europeans … But I think the policy of Europe seems to be to do as little as possible, and then hope to enjoy the spoils later on… I am sure the French are betting theye can do this… by trashing the war in the first place and proclaiming their great love for the Arabs (yeah right), looking up old friends, and then making some under the table deals, contrary to the interests of their European partners, the USA and everyone else ..it is the way of their foreign policy.

  5. I’ve just moved to Berlin on spec, and it’s going really well–I got a good job and a decent place to stay really quickly–yay Heinrich B?ll and Louis Walsh, or something. At this moment in time, I’m procrastinating doing some contract work for the place I just quit in Dublin. Whee.

    Mr. Neudorf: Beyond Dresden, in the case of the war in Europe, you could point to many other incidents where Bomber Harris’ strategy was implemented, the ethnic cleansing of K?nigsberg, Danzig and the rest of East Prussia, and the rape of Berlin, as instances where Germans who couldn’t, in all fairness, be ascribed the blame for Auschwitz or Sachsenhausen, were punished energetically. (There is no good reason to assign a collective (“the Germans,” “the Russians”) guilt unless a majority of its members were individually guilty (cf. “concentration camp guards”)) And, if you judge from their respective actions, Stalin was slightly less organised and slightly less sane than was his opposite number; only someone enchanted by one side’s propaganda could say that one was better than the other, and Britain and the US energetically aided Stalin.

    What are we doing even talking about this, though? The one lesson we were supposed to learn from the Holocaust was “Never again,” and it’s been repeatedly demonstrated that we didn’t even learn that.

    As to Iraq: you started the clusterfuck. You clean it up. How hard do you think Eisenhauer would have laughed at France if it had asked for help in Algeria? Or Britain in Malaysia?

  6. Speaking of Eisenhower, the French and the British, some of you may recall that when France and Britain went to war with Egypt over control of the Suez Canal in 1956, Ike did just laugh at them, and in fact forced them to withdraw. And he signally failed to back the French up when they were losing in Vietnam around the same time. He’d seen a huge war at first hand and pretty much didn’t want any part of it.

    Here’s the Wikipedia article on the Suez War, which is an interesting slice of European imperialist and Middle Eastern history.

  7. Aiden: “Stalin was slightly less organised and slightly less sane than was his opposite number”

    Not on my reading, he wasn’t. While Hitler was a broad-brush man with a vision for the big picture who didn’t read policy briefs, Stalin focused on meticulous detail, right down to personally appointing minor party functionaries in remote parts of the Soviet empire.

    As for which was less sane, both were political psychopaths: http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/20TH.HTM

    Stalin lead the way with mass category killing, in his case, “to eliminate the kulaks as a class,” announced as an official policy objective in December 1929 to resolve Soviet agrarian problems. The Ukraine famine of 1932/3 was one outcome: http://www.infoukes.com/history/famine/

    If anything, Hitler was rather more trusting than Stalin, which is why the Stauffenberg plot to assassinate Hitler in July 1944 almost succeeded and why this is reported of Admiral Canaris, Abwehr (military intelligence) chief: http://www.joric.com/Conspiracy/Canaris.htm

    This following story is impossible to document although it has circulated for some 50 years:

    As a loyalty test, Preobrezhensky, Stalin’s private secretary, was instructed to make out an arrest warrant for his own wife, which he duly did. When he got back to his appartment that night, he found a new woman there with whom he lived for the rest of his life.

    Soviet specialists I know believe the story to be true but I know of nothing nearly comparable relating to Hitler in the Third Reich. The Gestapo in Germany prior to WW2 had quite a small personnel establishment because internal security was not perceived as a significant threat. In the Soviet Union by comparison, the NKVD, predecessor of the KGB, was huge. Internal security was regarded as a significant potential threat in the Soviet Union.

    The one contrary indication concerning trust I know of is that right up to the moment of the German invasion of Soviet teritory on 22 June 1941, Stalin really vested trust in the Soviet-Nazi Non-Aggression Pact of 23 August 1939 and the later Friendship Treaty of 28 September 1939.

    Up to the invasion, he dismissed incoming intelligence reports from Soviet agents of the forthcoming attack – as well as a warning from Churchill – as “disinformation.”

  8. I didn’t know FusterCluck was known over in Europe. And I did start it, so I will take what I get on all issues. No doubt, with the emergence of the USSR and Stalin, the war might count as a loss, though if one was IRISH, it is hard to imaginge that the side issue-the destruction of the Btitish Empire, would not bring glee to thee.. Your point about the USA starting it and finishing it is fair too.

    A point – the USA has but one UN vote, but most of Europe’s 30 plus nations, many smaller than most of america’s 50 states, supported the US from the beginning, including most of its larger countries….

    Your examples are unusual. EISENHOWER
    He WANTED to go directly to France, notably, before taking on Japan or the Germans in Italy. He also supported the Marshall Plan. We need not go back to him; we find American assistance of France in Bosnia… one can argue the motives.

    ALGERIA. That is the country France promised independence in return for helping it during world war ll; then reneged and fought a brutal war with, fighting the Algerians harder than they fought the Germans.

  9. German unemployment soars to post WW2 record high!
    French ‘workers’ protest to remain lazy asses!

    I don’t think the Lisbon Agenda is going to happen.

  10. I had always believed that there was a de facto, rather than a legal, bar on nationals of any of the permanent members of the Security Council becoming UN Secretary-General. Certainly it has not happened so far. Up until now the nationalities of the seven holders of the post have been Norwegian (Lie), Swedish (Hammaskjold), Burmese (U Thant), Austrian Waldheim), Peruvian (de Cuellar), Egyptian (Ghali) and Ghanaian (Annan). For this reason, while Clinton may still be popular outside of the US, I think any move to appoint a US citizen would be rejected by the other members of the Security Council and by the General Assembly on principle. (BTW, the rules of election are dealt with in Chapter XV, Article 97 of the UN Charter.)

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Open Thread

As Christmas approaches, consider this open thread a gift from all of us at AFOE to all of our readers for you to play with as you will. Hopefully, unlike traditional Christmas presents, this one will not break within a few hours of opening it.

7 thoughts on “Open Thread

  1. How about sharing christmas traditions? I’ve learned in the netherlands you get the prisonas already at Dec. 6th, how’s that in Brussel or other European areas?

  2. Lili Marleen,

    in Spain nowadays we get toys for the children on 25 of December, from influence coming from France and other that have a P?re No?l, and on 6 of January, as a more local custom that base its justification on the adoration of the child by the mages from orient. That tradition is more public, usually the day before there is an arrival to the town, where the people goes to receive the caravan of the mages, there may be a reception in which the children ask for they presents, and of the next day, the mages with their caravan goes through the town giving the toys to the children.


  3. Well, specially for Christmas, I ask your thoughts on the case of mr Jonathan Pollard.
    Jonathan Pollard was arrested and charged with passing classified information to a foreign (ie Israel) government. He pleaded guilty. Jonathan Pollard received a life sentence without benefit of trial, as a result of a plea bargain which he honored and the U.S. government violated. For more information, see:
    Looks to me like this is an extreme case of whistle-blowing; albeit a whistleblower with a spot…
    My impression is that he is a victim of horrific degrees of cynicism in US politics.

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6 thoughts on “Open Thread

  1. They just said yes, so congratulations Aleks. A good decision for Latvia and a good decision for Europe. Of course, every silver lining has its cloud: one of the governing parties just resigned. You now have a minority government – although this is not to do with the yes vote. Also a little surprising are the names of the parties. The one that just left is called Latvia First. Another coalition party is Fatherland and Freedom, and another is called New Era. Not exactly ‘euro-spin’ pc type names.

    Another little detail, and back to an earlier post on ‘what type of Europe’, the Guardian had this little phrase:

    “The “yes” vote is expected to be a boost for the EU, embarrassed by Sweden’s decision last week to reject the euro.”

    Now first of all, I’m not sure the EU is in need of any kind of boost. Futher, with all due respect to the Latvians, I don’t think they’ll make the difference between having and not having ‘critical mass’, and lastly the euro and the EU are not one and the same thing. As I keep saying, from next May the euro states will be a minority 12-13. For or against the euro is a question of economic judgement: paraphrasing and subverting what Krugman often says about the fixed peg in Argentina, there are arguments in favour, and there are arguments against, but what you can’t do is equate the EU with the euro.

    Also I doubt a majority of the EU citizens in Denmark, the UK and Sweden consider last weeks euro vote an ’embarassment’ to the union. Possibly in the long term it will strengthen it.

  2. However, according to a BBC online article preceding the Latvian vote, at least in Latvia the euro is an integral part of the EU “package” — there won’t be a separate referendum on whether to join the euro. I don’t know whether this applies to all the candidate countries, but it’s possible that within a few years, the three non-euro countries could find themselves outnumbered 22 to 3.

  3. As the Latvians were absorbed into the Soviet Union in 1940 without their consent, almost anything is bound to seem an improvement on that experience. Let’s hope they are not altogether disappointed.

    The really curious thing is that 20 years back the left-wing in Britain wanted to get out of what was then the European Community. Something caused them to change their collective mindset between then and now. What could it be?

  4. Going back to the 22-3, that is possible. Even 25-0 one day is possible. It all depends whether the thing works, or whether we can agree on criteria for assesing what ‘works’ means here. Meatime it will be 13-12, with the onus on the 12 to prove the viability. Poland, Hungary and the Czech republic don’t look like taking any decision soon, especially since they’re enjoying floating their currencies downwards to try to keep competitive advantage over the southern 3 – Portugal, Greece and Spain.

  5. However, Latvia (if the BBC story is correct) and Estonia (whose currency is already pegged to the euro) will probably adopt the euro rather quickly.

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21 thoughts on “Open thread

  1. I think an open thread is very effective if there’s sufficient readership that is willing to post comments.

    I, for one, would like to know, if any of you fine people have any predictions on the upcoming EU referendums: for the entry to the EU in Estonia on the 14th and in Latvia on the 20th, as well as Euro referendum in Sweden.

    Any thoughts?

  2. unfortunately not.
    well yes, I have thoughts, but not on that issue.
    shouldn’t you be qualified to make a guess how Latvia will vote?
    if there’s any use to open threads, I guess it would be having people bring in information the blog-authors are not qualified to talk about, but which is nonetheless of interest to the blog’s readers/theme. So share your opinion (myself, I don’t know enough to even have an opinion, apart from being in favour of a pro-Europe vote)

  3. As you noticed on my site, I have voted “Yes” on the referendum. I voted by the absentee ballot earlier than the 20th.

    I think overall, Estonia and Latvia will approve their countries’ entry to the European Union, though some think EU is USSR in a “drag” and other ponder why the EU doesn’t allow countries to exist the Union, if they chose so. Certainly the EU is not a perfect international organization. But what organization is?

    The two Baltic States are no Norway. They cannot survive on their own for a long period of time. And due ot their geographical location, they’re constantly desired by other countries. Politically and economically. We might as well cave in voluntarily before we’re left behind the European wagon. Seeing the two small states between a large European Union and an even larger Russia is just an accident waiting to happen. If not political, then economical. Joining the EU will allow Latvia to compete with the rest of Europe for better products, and thus building up its economy.

    As for Swedish question, I am not certain how to answer it, because I am not informed enough about the issue to make a call. That’s kind of why I asked.

    What kind of thoughts do you have, Markus?

  4. For what open threads? I could imagine if one of your readers wants to have discussed something, he could mail you, or?

    I’d say Estonia and Latvia won’t do it without any problems, all their efforts the last years were directed to this final jump. Sweden? I have not a clue.

  5. Sweden will most likely vote no, but it’s not an open and shut case. I will regretfully vote no.

    Lots of weblogs have open threads. Tacitus, to name one. I’m sure our posts will not cover all topics our visitors are interested in.

    On the third and fourth we had so many comments that open threads might be tenable here. Let’s see.

  6. David,

    “Sweden will most likely vote no [to joining the Euro], but it’s not an open and shut case.”

    I agree. For years, I have been posting in places that the case for Britain joining is an “on balance” case at best.

    EU businesses trading across Eurozone borders as well as tourists travelling around Europe stand to gain from savings in currency transactions and avoiding exhange risks but loss of national monetary autonomy in setting interest rates to suit prevailing national conditions can lead to serious loss of national economic stability. Eurozone countries have had to learn that a that a one-size-fits-all monetary policy does not inevitably work out well. Many of the economic arguments deployed to justify the supposed economic benefits of monetary union in Europe apply also to the US and Canada in N America but Canadians show no inclination of wanting to give up the Canadian Dollar and use the US Dollar instead. And rightly so.

    Some of us anticipated the present recessions and stagnation of the major Eurozone economies because of the embedded market inflexibilities and especially because the DMark entered the Euro at an over-valued exchange rate – German employment costs in terms of the US Dollar are way out of line with those of its main trading partners. Many German economists seem to have foreseen the problems ahead to judge from representations they made in early 1998 for monetary union to be postponed: http://www.internetional.se/9802brdpr.htm

    The politicians, lead by Jacques Delors, president of the EU Commission 1985-94, pushed the agenda for monetary union for political reasons and took little heed of the cautionary economic advice. Very sensibly, the governments Denmark, Sweden and Britain all negotiated opt outs from EU monetary union in the Maastricht Treaty of 1992.

  7. “The two Baltic States are no Norway. They cannot survive on their own for a long period of time.”

    Looking at the demographics one is lead to ask, can they survive at all?

    Alex, is there any discussion on this topic? What are the attitudes to receiving third world, and/or especially Asian CIE immigrants.

    “an even larger Russia” no, Russia is definitely shrinking, so you can rest easy on this.

    BTW what is the position of the Russian speaking population in these Baltic states. A friend of mine went to Lithuania to a maths congress last year, and he told me that apart from the fact that everyone else in the room was older than him (he’s 50) what struck him most was the attitude towards the Russian speakers. He told me there were about 600,000 with no voting rights since you need an exam in Lithuanian language and history to get citizenship. (Incidentally his point wasn’t against minority languages per se, since he is a Catalan speaking Catalan. His preoccupation was about discriminating on grounds of language, in the same way that he would be concerned here if there was evidence of discrimination against Spanish speaking Catalans).Is this right? And if it is, are Brussels not at all concerned?

  8. Thank you! That’s very gratifyiong, coming from you.

    I think the open thread has been a qualified success, nothing like a Tacitus thread naturally.

    Leaning towards that we should do continue, have them once a week or so.

  9. To Edwards:

    Thinking realistically and setting aside one’s wishing thinking, one would tend to say that Latvia would not be able to survive on its own without the help of the European Union or some other large entity. The questions of immigration do come up in the debate over whether or not Latvia should join the EU.

    As far as the Russian population goes, Lithuania is quite different from Latvia and Estonia, in a way that it granted the citizenship to all who decided to make Lithuania their home (I’m sure there was a language test). In Latvia and Estonia, however, to get a citizenship right after the independence, one had to prove that one’s ancestors lived in the country prior to the 1940 Soviet invasion. Those who relocated to Latvia during the Soviet era and their children were not eligible to get citizenship by default. They were thought of as illegal immigrants and had to naturalize. Now the number of naturalized Russian-speaking people is decreasing. Most think it’s humiliating, because they think the citizenship is theirs by right. Others are fearful of compulsotory army service. Those people are not eligible to participate in the National Referendum on the EU. And now with EU washing their hands on the status of Russian non-citizen minority in Latvia through EU Enlargement Commissioner Guenter Verheugen (the new item on my site through Radio Liberty), they even feel betrayed by EU as well.

    The number of non-citizens is somehwere around 300,000 people in a 2.7 million population.

    I hope that answered your questions.

  10. In a thread above on Supply-side economics with the Comments section blocked off, it is suggested that anyone saying taxes and tax burdens are too high is a convert to supply-side economics? C’mon.

    On comparative tax burdens among the affluent OECD countries try Fig 1 at: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/15/57/2968128.pdf with updated data through to 2001 at: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/6/63/1962227.pdf France comes out pretty high.

    Total government tax revenues as a percentage of national GDP come in at just over 45% for Belgium compared with just over 37% in Britain and just under 30% in the US. Belgium comes out very near the top for its tax burden compared with other OECD countries.

    Does anyone seriously suppose that the differences in tax burdens have absolutely no effect on work incentives or risk taking in investment decisions? If so, how about raising the tax rate on all incomes to 100% and distributing the proceeds according to assessed personal needs after deducting the costs of running government, paying debt service and providing for the supply of public goods? Of course, anyone saying an income tax rate of a 100% is too high is just a benighted advocate of supply-side economics – and we’ve just been told that, “It hasn’t worked terribly well elsewhere.”

    Btw a useful source for a wide range of comparative data for OECD countries is “OECD in Figures 2002”, available at: http://www.oecdwash.org/DATA/STATS/oecdinfig2002.pdf

  11. “In a thread above on Supply-side economics with the Comments section blocked off, it is suggested that anyone saying taxes and tax burdens are too high is a convert to supply-side economics? C’mon.”

    That’s not how I read it. The quote sounded a bit like genuine supply-side, or at least genuine intellectual dishonesty.

  12. David – I tend to post a lot of links to (mostly highly reputable) data sources as a sort of social service. Of course, the data can contain errors but among sad experiences in life – mentioning no names – is seeing messages about economic policy from posters who don’t know too much economics and haven’t bothered to make even basic checks on relating data.

    Economics is unfortunately one of those topical subjects for bar room debate and one of those subjects which most politicans striving for fame and fortune lay claim to understanding. Hence, the potential scope for huge policy screw ups with popular support is enormous.

    It is credibly arguable that the reparations burden imposed on Germany in the Versailles Treaty after WW1 was a significant contributing factor to the route which lead to WW2 but the idea was very popular in Britain in 1919 and Lloyd George was prime minister. How curious then that Lloyd George, the last Liberal prime minister of Britain, is on record as saying after meeting Hitler in 1936: “Fuhrer is the proper name for him. He is a great and wonderful leader.”

    President Roosevelt, for all his good intentions in the depression years in America, was still dedicated to balancing the US federal government’s budget, thereby delaying the haul out of the depression. OTOH there are those like Fontaine, the previous finance minster in the German government until 1999, who seriously believed that the escape route from Germany’s high unemployment rate was to raise wages to stimulate demand and at a time when German employment costs were already high in US Dollar terms by comparison with Germany’s main trading partners.

    Many enthusiasts for joining the Euro haven’t checked or wondered what the consequences would be if the DMark got locked into the launch of the Euro at an over-valued exchange rate. For them, presumably, the present recession in Germany and other parts of the Eurozone is just a profound mystery.

    Tax ‘n’ spend enthusiasts are still around. They seem never to ask whether high tax burdens could damage economic performance by degrading work incentives and the willingness of investors to accept risk. For them, it seems to be just a matter that tax cuts mean public spending cuts and how terrible that would be. A modest concession to recognising the disincentive effects of high tax burdens was made by successive governments in Belgium in decisions made to borrow instead to cover revenue shortfalls – which is how Belgium came to have a national debt/GDP ratio of over 100%, well above that of any other Eurozone country apart from Italy.

    On strict application of the advisory eligibility criteria for joining the Euro in the Maastricht Treaty, Belgium and Italy shouldn’t be in the Eurozone but leaving out founding signatories of the Rome Treaty was politically unthinkable. Which is all part of how we come to be where we are in Europe. In a mess. But Tony Blair evidently believes that anyone sceptical about the benefits to Britain from joining the Euro is just another xenophobic bigot. The alternative explanation is that Tony Blair hasn’t a clue about economics – which is where we came in.

  13. “I could imagine if one of your readers wants to have discussed something, he could mail you, or?”
    “You” stands for David Weman here? Or is “A fistful of Euros” going to have its own address?
    Suppose I want attention for the following idea (from my own -still mainly Dutch- weblog):
    “…I criticized the initiative http://theworldvotes.org where a group of Dutch webloggers asks everyone (in the world) to “cast their vote” for the US presidential elections via their site.
    Although I agree with them that “The outcome of these elections directly influences the lives of citizens around the world” I do not like this idea. We -non Americans- should not interfere with their internal affairs.
    We can appeal however to the American voters to choose a president who will make the USA rejoin the world community. That is OUR interest in these elections. Ask the American voters to elect a man or woman who will support the International Criminal Court. Who will rejoin the worldwide efforts against the greenhouse-effect. Who respects the interests of poorer nations. Who helps strengthen the UN. Who helps debate the phenomenon of worldwide economic stability anew.
    Instead of actually participating in some kind of a mirror-election from outside the USA we should formulate our appeal in such a way that the serious candidates feel obliged to response.”
    Suppose. Should I visit the weblogs of all contributors to the Fistful ?
    (Anyway: nice to find this “groupblog”-initiative. I discovered it just after I found this US-groupblog: http://www.ospolitics.org which seems nice too although the mission statement is not completely “The ongoing renewal necessary for the health of democracy is not achieved by the election of politicians, but in discussion and debate among citizens, in the triumph of reason and research over ideology, and, most importantly, in your participation.” Realized yet.

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