Once In Another Lifetime

Former UK prime minister Harold Wilson coined the phrase ‘a week is a long time in politics’. Well I don’t know about a week, but two months certainly is. Back on July 12 Doug Merrill was wryly posting about “Things You Can Do When You’re 20 Points Up in the Polls“. Maybe he’d now like to do another one about things you can’t do when you’ve just lost your overall majority. I think Merkel’s face tells it all, we’re now back with Fassbinder and deeply ensconced in ‘fear eats the soul’ territory. Whatever the outcome on Sunday, this will surely have to go down as one of the worst run political campaigns in recent history. As Tobias was suggesting to me at the weekend, maybe somewhere deep down inside they just don’t want to win.

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About Edward Hugh

Edward 'the bonobo is a Catalan economist of British extraction. After being born, brought-up and educated in the United Kingdom, Edward subsequently settled in Barcelona where he has now lived for over 15 years. As a consequence Edward considers himself to be "Catalan by adoption". He has also to some extent been "adopted by Catalonia", since throughout the current economic crisis he has been a constant voice on TV, radio and in the press arguing in favor of the need for some kind of internal devaluation if Spain wants to stay inside the Euro. By inclination he is a macro economist, but his obsession with trying to understand the economic impact of demographic changes has often taken him far from home, off and away from the more tranquil and placid pastures of the dismal science, into the bracken and thicket of demography, anthropology, biology, sociology and systems theory. All of which has lead him to ask himself whether Thomas Wolfe was not in fact right when he asserted that the fact of the matter is "you can never go home again".

3 thoughts on “Once In Another Lifetime

  1. Winning is not everything. What you can do with the victory is also important. If you run on the platform of no tax increase and are forced to take that back within half a year, victory will become bitter.

    And, at the risk of repeating myself, consider
    1. statistical uncertainty
    2. voting by mail
    3. overhanging seats

    What you can safely say now is that it is almost in the balance with the advantage still on the conservative side.
    Maybe something as trivial as the weather will decide. I guess we’ll just have to await the results (or exit polls) if indeed they are published on sunday.

  2. “What you can safely say now is that it is almost in the balance with the advantage still on the conservative side.”

    I wouldn’t disagree. All I am trying to say is that she might have won easily, but…..

  3. But a victory after announcing such cruelties is much more useful.

    Consider. If she wins, she has a hell of a mandat. An outright victory of the present government is still practically impossible. If she loses she can either watch Schröder who couldn’t do what needs to be done with a stable coaltion selfdestruct or she heads a grand coaltion with somebody to put the blame on which can be ended at her discretion.

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