If this really is the end — still an open question, sure — then I’d say the regime has come through remarkably unscathed.

Doug M.

http://exiledonline.com/war-nerd-irans-cedar-show-aka-dont-get-excited-the-protestors-are-just-letting-off-some-steam/

Though he’s a little more… colorful, about it.

Doug M.

That’s his job title. Like “Mr. President”. Try not to be such an oaf.

Alireza Doostdar
-The writer is a PhD candidate in anthropology & Middle Eastern studies at Harvard University. He is currently conducting fieldwork in Tehran.-

“Western coverage of the political turmoil in Iran in the aftermath of the 12 June presidential election has for the most part presented a uniform image of the conflict: thousands of young, liberal, and defiant supporters of presidential challenger Mir-Hussein Mousavi have been protesting against what they see as massive fraud, a “coup” to re-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The government, fearful of a popular uprising, has responded with massive use of force, killing and injuring protesters, arresting activists and politicians, and imposing an information blockade.

Analysts repeatedly ask themselves and others, “Is this a revolution?” And, more expectantly, “Are we witnessing the end of the Islamic Republic?” Whatever we are to make of the question of fraud (there apparently were some irregularities, but no evidence of widespread fraud), Ahmadinejad retains a huge popular base that is not prepared to forfeit its position. Rather than viewing the events of the past 12 days as signs of a revolution-in-the-making, we should be examining them, along with the months of campaigning leading up to the election, as indicators of a deepening social and cultural rift that is dividing Iranian society, and will leave a lasting impression no matter how the current crisis is resolved.

Never has an election polarised Iranian society this much. Passions and mutual hatred rose in the run-up to the vote, as campaigners heckled and insulted each other on the streets, supporters gathered in massive open-air events in competing shows of force, candidates battled in dramatic debates on live television, and jokes, poems, and insults circulated via cell phones. These rising tensions were fuelled by very real disagreements over priorities for the Iranian nation, analyses of the problems the country faced, and mutual distrust, even revulsion, at the rival candidate. These differences are components of a multi-faceted culture war that has been simmering in Iran’s urban centres for at least 12 years, with roots going further back into the early days of the Islamic Revolution. To understand today’s social tensions we need to understand what has been animating important parts of each constituency.”

And I’m a crank

Doug
We could discuss these examples and also the definition of legitmacy but the fact is that the regime thinks more like me - otherwise it wouldn’t be making such a propaganda effort - PressTV is even advertising on London buses at the moment, how strange.

I haven’t thought this through but I also think there is a difference between all these places you mentioned and Iran - where the ruling ideology is political religion rather than nationalism. It’s not only about who’s face is on the posters: you can’t have an Islamic regime banning Allahu Akbar cries.

On another note, I’m sure you saw the news about 100 Iranian MPs out 300 invitees showing up to Ahmedinejad’s party - an interesting example of your DDYTTKI law. - what it tells me is that two thirds of Iran’s conservative core institution are so unsure that Khameini is going to win that they would rather take the risk of embaracing Ahmedinejad and not be seen as siding with him.

Mink, I don’t claim the DYTTKT hypothesis covers everything! I do say it’s a useful first-order bullshit filter.

“Physical repression can never fully succeed legitimacy” — I have to sharply disagree with this. History is full of regimes where physical repression did just that, and for generations.

IANA a Iran expert, but I did live for years in post-Milosevic Serbia, post-Ceausescu Romania, and Kocharian/Sarkisian Armenia. As I posted last week, I think that last one is particularly relevant; Armenia’s government stole the Presidential election fairly openly, then gunned down protesters in the street. 16 months later, the government is stable, united, and universally recognized. I don’t say Iran’s regime will get off that easy; I do say it’s an interesting proof-of-concept.

Note that the Basij, who are doing much of the actual head-cracking, are indeed drawn from a pretty narrow subsection of society.

At this precise moment, the only weak spot I see is if Rafsanjani can convince the Council of Experts to make a move against Khameini. But that doesn’t seem to be happening, and I’m inclined to think it won’t — the prevailing mood at the Council seems to be little-c conservatism.

Doug M.

To begin with, the Assembly of Experts does have veto power, in the sense that it can remove the Leader of the Revolution. Rafsanjani heads that organization. There was a report on PressTV that it had made a statement endorsing the leadership at the moment, but there are doubts regarding the veracity of that. Still really no news on what is going on with Rafsanjani, outside of members of his family being arrested.

Historically speaking, the images are very reminiscent of the 1978-9 Revolution. Though you have the “scissor men” out in force, the regime has not, per the reports so far, done anything on the level of Black Friday in 1978, where the Shah ordered his men to fire on protesters, and the estimates of the dead are between the hundreds and over 2,000. SAVAK–the Shah’s scissor men–did the same rounding up of people, and was especially talented at torturing them without ending up killing them. There hasn’t even been anything along the lines of the 1963 crackdown in terms of numbers killed.

I think that the pace of the news–especially with Twitter–is causing some folks to draw conclusions about a movement which may take 15 years to play out or maybe 1 or 2.

Either way, it does look like just now a considerable portion of the population believes the leadership is controverting the Constitution, and insofar as that is concerned, believe that the government is illegitimate until it begins to make good on some of its promises.

Question for Scott and Mrs T: Is this a right wing site now?