The Wall Street Journal Europe uncorks an instant classic in explaining the longevity of Lockerbie bomber Abdel Baset al-Megrahi:
Karol Sikora, a leading cancer specialist who examined Megrahi shortly before his release, explains that predicting how long a patient with end-stage prostate cancer has to live is “a value judgment of probability,” not an exact science. But Dr. Sikora also writes that his initial three-month prognosis was “based on his treatment as an NHS patient in Glasgow at the time, when not even standard docetaxel chemotherapy was offered.” By contrast, “Mr. Megrahi almost certainly had excellent care in Tripoli.” Think about that one: Get treated for cancer by the U.K.’s National Health Service, and you’ll be dead by Christmas. But get treated for the same cancer in Libya, and you may have years to live. No wonder Americans are terrified of government-run medicine and rationing boards.
It’s painfully obvious but apparently nonetheless necessary to point that Mr al-Megrahi was in this case receiving care as a political trophy in a petro-state with an open-ended government budget available to embarrass his former hosts. So Yes, his care was probably better than the NHS standard available to him in Glasgow, but as Dr Sikora also explains, there was a lot of variability around the now-notorious “3 months to live” prognosis even at the time it was issued. His care was also a lot better than someone without health insurance in the USA would receive, but who wants to descend to cheap health system point scoring based on a single case. Besides the Wall Street Journal.
My own view is that there’s no big conspiracy theory or undiscovered files behind Mr al-Megrahi’s release. Instead, the issue played into the self-righteousness of the SNP government. Up against that, geopolitics didn’t stand a chance.