…below the fold.
But first an introduction. I’m guestblogging from Amsterdam and my site can be found here. Very much honored to post at the Fistful (I would be, they’ve got visitors), although in all honesty they might be better served by a Francophone blogger.
As it is, they are grossly misunderestimated by the French part of the blogosphere (le sphÃ¨re au blog?).
… but the OECD’s new forecast it is. Released at 11.00 AM CET this morning. Important stuff, the OECD even has a webcast of the affair to show you how many photographers an OECD press conference can muster.
They do this every 6 months, and like all -smart- prognosticators they take heed not to compare the new forecast with the old one. I bring you the slightly abridged version of the 229-page report and put the November 2005 numbers in to boot.
Growth in the US has been revised downwards a bit, news from Japan has gotten better and Europe has remained roughly at (sub)par. Now you know.
A couple of notes:
The underlying assumptions are twofold: (1) The Middle East will not explode. Oil remains steady at $70. (2) The United States will not implode. The US current account deficit will climb unhindered to 7.6% of GDP in 2007, and the housing market will not crash.
Every Economic Outlook has a special subject. In November it was the housing market (they think it is overvalued), this time it’s public healthcare (they think it costs too much). I don’t know if I’m reading the chart right, but it seems that the US now spends as much on public healthcare and long term care (as a % of GDP) as does Britain. Yes, that’s just the public bit of US healthcare.
The healthcare special was also the only part where I could find any mention of GDP per capita, and that was in a useless table citing a 2005-2025 average. No population forecasts either. I had to Google around to find population growth estimates. Do the economists at the OECD desperately want to hide the fact that they expect per capita growth of GDP to be higher in Japan than in the US?
When you assume oil remains at $70/barrel, you also assume that Norway is TEH man. In 2012 the Norge Government will have net financial liabilities worth -196% of GDP. That is so cool. They could all go on a two year sabbatical…..