Comments on: Latvia: The Demographic Price Of Procrastination

By: Lettlands långsiktiga problem | Aktiebloggar.se

Lettlands långsiktiga problem | Aktiebloggar.se — Tue, 10 Aug 2010 10:07:53 +0000

[...] Hugh på A Fistful of Euros uppmärksammade häromveckan en undersökning av Eliana Marino om de demografiska konsekvenserna av sparpaket och kris – “The Social Impacts of the Economic Slowdown: The Latvian experience”. Hon kommer fram till att [...]

By: Br.

Br. — Sat, 07 Aug 2010 00:21:40 +0000

http://ecodiario.eleconomista.es/inmigracion/noticias/2364205/08/10/Se-reducen-en-100000-los-extranjeros-residentes.html

By: Leszek

Leszek — Fri, 06 Aug 2010 06:42:07 +0000

I think that although the analysis is generally correct, it misses out two important factors diminishing the impact. I think the Latvian case is not so much different from the Polish case where I am a case study
Many people, especially in their 30s, half-emigrate – they have a spouse at home and return regularly from work thanks to cheap flights for example.
Other people, especially the youngest, treat migration as a revloving door process and might return when opportunity arises.

By: MM

MM — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 20:03:15 +0000

If they leave for the EU … they are still around. If mirgration patterns change that fast, demographic forecast aren’t worth the effort.

By: Br.

Br. — Sun, 01 Aug 2010 02:07:09 +0000

” Where are the people leaving Spain going ? ” Home I suppose. Many immigrants were paid in advance to leave, especially S.American. In Andalucia, the northern Europeans working servicing the property boom have mostly left. Retired British expats have been leaving because of the unfavourable exchange rates, and the downturn at home. Tourism is down so I suppose the number of foreigners working in the field will have reduced. The Spanish have moved within Spain’s borders, but those that are qualified or adventurous have left for better pastures. It is always hard to judge between a constant turnover of temporary residents vs. a steady permanent presence of foreigners and locals , but simply looking around out of season and there is no denying that the population overall has decreased significantly compared to recent years (at least for the south coast of Spain – maybe someone will tell me they have all moved to Madrid or Ed will comment on how packed Barcelona has become over the last couple of years ?)

By: Henrik Holleufer

Henrik Holleufer — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 08:38:52 +0000

@ Laban, this piece from today’s Telegraph may shed a little light on UK demographics:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/7916924/Britain-to-be-biggest-country-in-Europe-by-2050.html

By: Laban

Laban — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 07:59:29 +0000

Edward - would you consider doing a similar demographic analysis for the UK ? My gut feel is that the Brits who are leaving (for Australia, the US, Canada, New Zealand) tend to be highly educated under-40s. "There are now 3.247 million British-born people living abroad, of whom more than 1.1 million are highly-skilled university graduates, say the researchers. More than three quarters of these professionals have settled abroad for more than 10 years, according to the study by the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). No other nation is losing so many qualified people, it points out. Britain has now lost more than one in 10 of its most skilled citizens, while overall only Mexico has had more people emigrate. Britain's exodus is far higher than any of the OECD's other 29 members. Germany has lost only 860,000 highly-skilled workers, America 410,000 and France 370,000. The OECD found that 27.3 per cent of those emigrating had health or education qualifications, 37.7 per cent had humanities or social science degrees and 28.5 per cent were scientists or engineers."

By: Laban

Laban — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 07:34:03 +0000

“Well think about Spain, where the housing boom attracted in the best part of 6 million people – in a country where the rate of natural change in the population was stagnant”

Stagnant ? I took a look at Spanish demography in 2006. They’ve reorganised their excellent stats website since then – and for some reason the fertility stats are now only available in Spanish – or I couldn’t find them anyway.

“In 1975 the average senora had 2.8 babies – well above the 2.1 replacement rate. But that rate was passed in 1981, and is currently at 1.3, having been as low as 1.1 only a few years ago.

The excellent site however shows the population actually rising from 42 to 52 million by 2060. Based on ?

“The first situation considered is that the number of new arrivals of foreigners in Spain will evolve according to the most recent trend until the year 2010, after which they remain constant. The total number of arrivals in Spain during the period 2007-2059 increases to 14.6 million persons.”

14.6 million high-fertility arrivals, by the look of it. These aren’t Brit retirees.”

By: FT Alphaville » Further reading

FT Alphaville » Further reading — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 07:14:07 +0000

[...] The demographic price of procrastination in [...]

By: July 28, 2010 : Contemporary Analysis

July 28, 2010 : Contemporary Analysis — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 20:07:42 +0000

[...] a country where the rate of natural change in the population was stagnant. Now imagine that with 20% unemployment as the continuing outlook for the country over the best part of the next decade, what might happen there. People could vote with their feet, and the population could contract just [...]