Comments on: Is Austria Set To Join The Honourable Company of PIIGs?

By: ANtonio

ANtonio — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 23:15:04 +0000

The real PIGS are the US and the UK, the two countries whose financial sectors created all this mess and whose banks are either nationalised or bailed out. Sir, when are you going to refer to those two countries as PIGS instead on keeping on insulting others? You are a real disgrace.

By: Alex

Alex — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 00:16:01 +0000

Didn’t Hypo-Alpe Adria have a fairly serious negative event some years ago, that Jörg Haider (peace and blessings be upon him) blamed on the Steiermark?

By: Mike

Mike — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 21:21:10 +0000

Edward,

I completely agree, but it just seems like it is quite a while from a forced stop.

I think Japan will hit the demographic wall in the next 3-5 years with serious inflation the likely outcome there. I think Europe won’t hit the wall for at least 5 years and probably closer to 10. Of course, this is all assuming that Andy Xie is very wrong about China, otherwise all bets are off.

Do you have a favorite blog for Japan? I don’t recall seeing write much on it, but it will be the first demographic bomb to detonate.

By: Edward Hugh

Edward Hugh — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 07:20:00 +0000

Hi Mike,

“What stops this?”

Basically population ageing, and the impact of continuosly rising elderly dependency ratios on spending (up) and growth (down). At some point the numbers simply don’t square. You can’t get inflation, so debt to GDP simply goes up and up. Meanwhile as the population ages household saving once more starts to fall as people “dis-save”, once that hits a critical level the whole thing becomes unsustainable, and there is no path back across the shaky rope bridge, since the cords start to snap. Watch Japan (over the next decade or so).

By: Mike

Mike — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:24:46 +0000

I agree that they can’t sweep the problems under the rug forever, but why can’t it be 5+ years?

As long as the ECB takes all sovereign debt as collateral, this game doesn’t have to stop. The sovereigns go more into debt bailing out the banks. What stops this?

By: (Eastern)Europe Watch - Seite 4 - Aktienboard

(Eastern)Europe Watch - Seite 4 - Aktienboard — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:17:13 +0000

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By: Financial News: 2009-12-16 | TheTradingReport

Financial News: 2009-12-16 | TheTradingReport — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 09:56:26 +0000

[...] Is Austria Set To Join The Honourable Company of PIIGs? | Edward Hugh (”When will the world of officialdom wake up to the fact that when economists warn of impending dangers, this is not done to cause harm, but in an attempt to try to stop more damage being done?” – [...]

By: govs from Latvia

govs from Latvia — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:16:08 +0000

Oh, yes! And the present investment targets of Hypo AA will be difficult to extort even by the mighty EU. They are not a Latvia – if a bank will go down on Balkans, they will let to happen it.