The exit poll is out. The widely reported 3 way tie — in first preference votes — between Fianna Fáil (main opposition), Fine Gael (minority government) and Sinn Féin (the ostensible surprise packet in the election).
The next indication of results will be the famous “tally” — an estimate of first preference votes, constituency by constituency, based on skilled observers of the ballots as they are sorted. These people are clearly needed in Iowa (or could have lucrative careers in Las Vegas). Check the website of national broadcaster RTE (and no, that’s not Erdogan’s twitter account) later on Sunday morning for these numbers.
But more than any recent election in Irish history, the action is going to be way down in the count — as lower preference votes are allocated, and the big 3 parties walk a tightrope between too many candidates per constituency and thus splitting votes, and too few to pick up vote reallocations.
At this stage it looks like a pattern seen in other countries — of a quiet late surge back to the governing party (e.g. Austria, Australia) is being replicated in Ireland. On the other hand, much hyped features of last year’s European Parliament election (such as the “green wave”) have gone into remission.