Hollowing Out In Moldova?

The Moldovan population has fallen from more than 4.3 million people in 1989, to just 3.4 million in 2004 excluding the separatist Transnistria area in the east, rising to a bit under 3.8 million if one includes Transnistria’s resident population. Randy McDonald asks:

Moldova’s example demonstrates that, when economic conditions become sufficiently bad and/or when the benefits accuring to emigrants become sufficiently great, regional and national populations can contract at speeds more reminiscent of wartime depopulation than anything else. Where Moldova goes now, perhaps any number of relatively small and relatively impoverished states (Serbia, Paraguay, Cuba, Laos, Lesotho) in the future, perhaps–who knows?–even much larger countries.

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About Edward Hugh

Edward 'the bonobo is a Catalan economist of British extraction. After being born, brought-up and educated in the United Kingdom, Edward subsequently settled in Barcelona where he has now lived for over 15 years. As a consequence Edward considers himself to be "Catalan by adoption". He has also to some extent been "adopted by Catalonia", since throughout the current economic crisis he has been a constant voice on TV, radio and in the press arguing in favor of the need for some kind of internal devaluation if Spain wants to stay inside the Euro. By inclination he is a macro economist, but his obsession with trying to understand the economic impact of demographic changes has often taken him far from home, off and away from the more tranquil and placid pastures of the dismal science, into the bracken and thicket of demography, anthropology, biology, sociology and systems theory. All of which has lead him to ask himself whether Thomas Wolfe was not in fact right when he asserted that the fact of the matter is "you can never go home again".

13 thoughts on “Hollowing Out In Moldova?

  1. Many Cubans in fact are trying to emigrate even though the Castro regime largely forbids it. The people who try crossing to Florida in overcrowded small boats are, of course, the prime example. I don’t doubt that there’s be a huge rush if the restrictions were lifted.
    Laos saw a huge outflow of refugees after the fall of the pre-Communist regime in the 1970’s. I haven’t heard much about emigration since then, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Thailand gets a lot.
    Finally, Lesotho has heavy emigration to South Africa, though AKAIK it’s mainly in the form of workmen who maintain their homes and families in Lesotho while working in South Africa.

  2. This has happened before – e.g., 19th century/early 20th century Ireland.

    But what does this have to do with Portugal?

  3. Actually the reason why Portugal can’t devalue its currency is because they no longer have their own currency since they’ve joined the Euro zone! Or else they would devalue it, and so would Italy…

  4. Don’t think that could happen on a large scale anymore.. What happened in Moldova was a consequence of the break-up of the Soviet Union.

    Serbia already had large scale emigration during the war, a lot of Serbians are living here in Switzerland now.

    Paraguay population has been increasing continuosly for many decades.. and they actually have more immigrants coming in then emigrants leaving the country. A lot of Brazilian farmers have moved to Paraguay in the last years because the land is much cheaper in Paraguay than in Brazil

  5. The obvious candidates for the moldavian experience in the future are obvious Portugal, Poland. I think that Bulgaria and Rumania are already experience it and if we want to defeat Iran it would experience the same fate.

  6. Portugal had a similar experience in the 70s. There are millions of portuguese living in France, Switzerland and Luxembourg.

    Iran might me a good candidade for mass emigration in the future…

  7. Future as in April 28 🙂

    Portugal did experience massive emigration but not a declining population which is the import feature of Moldavia.

  8. Portugal did come close in the 1960s, with a population that was declining slightly throughout the decade. Even now, Portuguese seem more likely to resort to emigration than, say, Greeks. The proportional decline, though, was much less than the one-fifth contraction in Moldova.

    If we’re talking about the EU-25, I’d have to say that Lithuania and Latvia are most likely to experience something akin to the Moldovan pattern. Small open economies with relatively low living standards and modern traditions of emigration lend themselves well to mass emigration.

  9. Whatever happened in Moldovan is due to the break up of Soviet Union.Portugal had similar experience in the early 60s. Small economies with poor standard of living leads to mass emigration.Hope they can raise up their standards.

  10. Whatever happened in Moldovan is due to the break up of Soviet Union.Portugal had similar experience in the early 60s. Small economies with poor standard of living leads to mass emigration.Hope they can raise up their standards.

  11. Portugal experienced similar to this in early 60s.This shows that when economic conditions become bad or benefits incurring to emigrants r more,then this depopulation tends to occur. They should to something to raise their standard of living.

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