In response to comments to posts farther below: Scott, yes, I’d be very surprised if FDP, for reasons of principle, refused to enter an Ampelkoalition, instead forcing a grand coalition in which they would by definition play no part, utterly wasting their astoundingly good result today. To be fair, I’d be surprised to see any party in their position refuse power in this way.

And yes, it’s not saying much to label Merkel best of a bad lot. Thing is, she is better and much more interesting than the run of the Union. It’s Germany’s tragedy that she signed on to the CDU rather than the FDP, and that the FDP don’t poll 20-35% (and that, within the FDP, Guido and Gerhardt are in power, and Leuthäuser-Schnarrenberger no longer is). But one must work with the material one has.

And Tobias has raised an extremely important point. We’ve all had our eyes on the Bundestag. Whatever government emerges from today’s results, the Bundesrat remains unchanged. Which means a great deal of stalemate. Control of the Bundesrat would have made a huge difference had Black/Yellow been able to form a government. But the Union failed misearably on that front today.