Comments on: Will the Irish tail wag the Lisbon dog? http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/governments-and-parties/will-the-irish-tail-wag-the-lisbon-dog/ European Opinion Sat, 22 Nov 2008 11:19:09 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: P O'Neill http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/governments-and-parties/will-the-irish-tail-wag-the-lisbon-dog/#comment-19681 P O'Neill Wed, 02 Apr 2008 17:28:05 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/governments-and-parties/will-the-irish-tail-wag-the-lisbon-dog#comment-19681 The moniker reflects multiple influences, one being that the previous most prominent user of it was hopefully not going to need it in the future. Anyway I think the question going forward is whether Bertie has innoculated Lisbon from his own problems. It'll be 5 weeks from his actual exit to the vote, assuming he sticks with his apparent commitment in the Dail today to have it on the 12th of June. I think Oscar rightly points to a paradox between FF's electoral base and that for their ancillary projects like referenda. My own bias is that the EU could surely do without a new round of chaos about Lisbon after all the time it's already taken to get this far, so I hope it passes. But it's going to require a properly-run campaign with a FF-style war-room ready some of the stuff that the Nos will put out there (e.g. threats to neutrality). The moniker reflects multiple influences, one being that the previous most prominent user of it was hopefully not going to need it in the future.

Anyway I think the question going forward is whether Bertie has innoculated Lisbon from his own problems. It’ll be 5 weeks from his actual exit to the vote, assuming he sticks with his apparent commitment in the Dail today to have it on the 12th of June. I think Oscar rightly points to a paradox between FF’s electoral base and that for their ancillary projects like referenda. My own bias is that the EU could surely do without a new round of chaos about Lisbon after all the time it’s already taken to get this far, so I hope it passes. But it’s going to require a properly-run campaign with a FF-style war-room ready some of the stuff that the Nos will put out there (e.g. threats to neutrality).

]]> By: Aidan Kehoe http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/governments-and-parties/will-the-irish-tail-wag-the-lisbon-dog/#comment-19678 Aidan Kehoe Wed, 02 Apr 2008 14:40:45 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/governments-and-parties/will-the-irish-tail-wag-the-lisbon-dog#comment-19678 erm…, P O'Neill's been running an <a href="http://bestofbothworlds.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">excellent blog</a> under that nick for years, now. He's the second Google result for it from my IP—I don’t think (s)he’ll be in a rush to abandon it. I suspect the no camp might just win if the turnout is sufficiently low, despite all the support for the opposite cap; remember the referendum on legalising divorce had 49% on the "no" side, despite similar political support, and government money for the "yes" campaign, which should be no longer available. On the optimistic side, the arguments I've heard from the "no" side this time have been much more half-baked than for the first Nice referendum, but I may well lack local perspective. erm…, P O’Neill’s been running an excellent blog under that nick for years, now. He’s the second Google result for it from my IP—I don’t think (s)he’ll be in a rush to abandon it.

I suspect the no camp might just win if the turnout is sufficiently low, despite all the support for the opposite cap; remember the referendum on legalising divorce had 49% on the “no” side, despite similar political support, and government money for the “yes” campaign, which should be no longer available. On the optimistic side, the arguments I’ve heard from the “no” side this time have been much more half-baked than for the first Nice referendum, but I may well lack local perspective.

]]> By: Today’s events in Ireland | afoe | A Fistful of Euros | European Opinion http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/governments-and-parties/will-the-irish-tail-wag-the-lisbon-dog/#comment-19676 Today’s events in Ireland | afoe | A Fistful of Euros | European Opinion Wed, 02 Apr 2008 13:49:47 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/governments-and-parties/will-the-irish-tail-wag-the-lisbon-dog#comment-19676 [...] not familiar with the usual Irish sources may want to consult my post a couple of days ago for a little background (mostly in the Lisbon context) and then head to RTE, the Irish Times, and the Irish Election blog [...] [...] not familiar with the usual Irish sources may want to consult my post a couple of days ago for a little background (mostly in the Lisbon context) and then head to RTE, the Irish Times, and the Irish Election blog [...]

]]> By: links for 2008-04-02 | Nosemonkey’s EUtopia http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/governments-and-parties/will-the-irish-tail-wag-the-lisbon-dog/#comment-19671 links for 2008-04-02 | Nosemonkey’s EUtopia Wed, 02 Apr 2008 12:38:31 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/governments-and-parties/will-the-irish-tail-wag-the-lisbon-dog#comment-19671 [...] Will the Irish tail wag the Lisbon dog? Nice overview of how Ireland could well scupper the Lisbon Treaty - not for its contents, but thanks to unrelated domestic concerns. Ah, referenda - aren’t they great? (tags: Ireland EU) [...] [...] Will the Irish tail wag the Lisbon dog? Nice overview of how Ireland could well scupper the Lisbon Treaty - not for its contents, but thanks to unrelated domestic concerns. Ah, referenda - aren’t they great? (tags: Ireland EU) [...]

]]> By: erm... http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/governments-and-parties/will-the-irish-tail-wag-the-lisbon-dog/#comment-19662 erm... Wed, 02 Apr 2008 09:01:10 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/governments-and-parties/will-the-irish-tail-wag-the-lisbon-dog#comment-19662 Pretty tasteless pen name. I'd get a new one TBH. The no campaign are twenty points behind and have no money. The yes camp have billions of euros and all the political parties bar SF and all the newspapers. I don't think you need to start doing all this expectations management - the Yes side are going to win. Pretty tasteless pen name. I’d get a new one TBH.

The no campaign are twenty points behind and have no money. The yes camp have billions of euros and all the political parties bar SF and all the newspapers. I don’t think you need to start doing all this expectations management - the Yes side are going to win.

]]> By: oscar http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/governments-and-parties/will-the-irish-tail-wag-the-lisbon-dog/#comment-19649 oscar Tue, 01 Apr 2008 12:08:57 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/governments-and-parties/will-the-irish-tail-wag-the-lisbon-dog#comment-19649 Welcome P o'neill, cant remember your irish blog, but do recognize it. delighted to finally see a post on this issue here in afoe (i even considered writing one). couple of opinions i want to add. 1. Bertie's Euro ambitions are over. all that talk of the eu presidency was before Berties court appearances. 2. The irish are suffering from information deficit, espcially when the "No Camp" claim they want the same things as the yes camp. 3. the irish voters (IMO) could easily vote down the EU referendom yet vote FF back for the next govermemnt (FF is berties Political party). 4. i envy the culture of resigning when scandal hits you so prevalent in UK and mainland europe, unfortuantly like many things we have an irish solution to an irish problem.. just my 2 cents worth, on what i consider to be a very important point for europe, but few acknolwedge it imo. Welcome P o’neill, cant remember your irish blog, but do recognize it.

delighted to finally see a post on this issue here in afoe (i even considered writing one).

couple of opinions i want to add.

1. Bertie’s Euro ambitions are over. all that talk of the eu presidency was before Berties court appearances.

2. The irish are suffering from information deficit, espcially when the “No Camp” claim they want the same things as the yes camp.

3. the irish voters (IMO) could easily vote down the EU referendom yet vote FF back for the next govermemnt (FF is berties Political party).

4. i envy the culture of resigning when scandal hits you so prevalent in UK and mainland europe, unfortuantly like many things we have an irish solution to an irish problem..

just my 2 cents worth, on what i consider to be a very important point for europe, but few acknolwedge it imo.

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